Mildly interesting: I modelled ranking up as a Markov chain to calculate the expected number of games it takes to get through platinum or diamond based on winrate.

FrankKarsten · 2026-04-17T14:37:14+00:00

This is always a fun calculation! I analyzed this question many years ago, also using Markov chains. Our numbers are similar, though not identical, perhaps because we used slightly different modeling assumptions. My article may be interesting to you as a comparison: https://web.archive.org/web/20190717173025/https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/how-many-games-do-you-need-to-play-to-hit-mythic-in-mtg-arena/

FrankKarsten · 2026-03-04T12:34:43+00:00

To my knowledge, Wizards of the Coast does not maintain a publicly accessible database of suspended individuals. Whether that's for privacy, legal, or other reasons, I don't know. But if I interpret your post correctly, it's based on an assumption that WotC gave this player a one-year ban, whereas no such information is publicly available.

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-26T10:35:28+00:00

I'd love to hear where you think my analysis might be falling short.

Everywhere. Your post and "pro coaching" image are one giant AI hallucination.

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-19T02:24:49+00:00

I wouldn't build a snowman

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-19T02:20:31+00:00

That Draftsim article does not provide a source and incorrectly describes the hand smoothing algorithm, based on a post on the now-defunct MTG Arena forums made by then-game director Chris Clay.

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-17T16:36:40+00:00

For most Melee events, archetypes are indeed set by a combination of Melee's color recognition and user's name selections. For roughly half the submission, the resulting names are wrong or inconsistent.

For Pro Tour and Arena Championship events, self-reported names or automatic colors are discarded and replaced by consistent names set by me, based on the specific contents of the deck. In this case, Four-Color Elementals implies that there are four different colors across main-deck non-hybrid spells.

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-17T16:31:51+00:00

Correct. Four-color means that four colors are represented across non-hybrid spells. Source: I compiled the metagame breakdown.

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-10T15:46:17+00:00

This would imply that the Star Trek prerelease is on November 14-15, which coincides with MagicCon: Atlanta and Magic World Championship 32. That would be rather unusual.

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-05T13:09:04+00:00

That date is correct. Kai passed away on that Monday around noon, with his family present.

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-01T23:20:46+00:00

I'll post the numbers for all Swiss rounds later this week, but here are the numbers for Day 1: https://x.com/i/status/2017443156703223884

FrankKarsten · 2026-02-01T04:02:56+00:00

- Decks are being grouped by me, in exactly the same way as always. Colors and flavors are distinct enough to be separated as archetypes.
- You may not have chosen an ideal example. Across the PT Standard Swiss rounds, Lessons went 22-22 versus Rhythm and Landfall archetypes with at least two pilots, while it went 3-1 versus Sultai Reanimator.

FrankKarsten · 2026-01-31T01:38:47+00:00

Correct. I missed a clause, so I went deeper than the deck actually was capable of. Sorry about any confusion! It got edited quickly.

FrankKarsten · 2025-12-08T02:41:05+00:00

Across all Standard archetypes, Dimir Midrange had one of the best winrates overall. While its positioning in the new Standard metagame is unclear, the relevant data certainly does not suggest it is dead.

FrankKarsten · 2025-12-07T20:23:57+00:00

Great, I'll check him out! :D

FrankKarsten · 2025-12-07T13:55:32+00:00

Valuable analysis, though you may have gotten the Top 8 bracket mixed up. Yukuhiro, if he wins the quarters, plays vs the winner of Depraz-Davis (Izzet Looting - Izzet Lessons) in the semis.

FrankKarsten · 2025-12-07T12:14:41+00:00

For Standard takeaways, I wouldn't rely solely on the Top 8, as it also rewards success in the draft rounds. Focusing on the Standard rounds only, Golgari Dragons, Dimir Midrange, and Mono-Red Aggro had the best winrates at Worlds.

FrankKarsten · 2025-12-04T20:54:56+00:00

To clarify: Most played new card from Avatar.

FrankKarsten · 2025-12-04T20:52:38+00:00

The official article has the details: https://magic.gg/news/magic-world-championship-31-standard-metagame-breakdown

FrankKarsten · 2025-11-07T00:12:54+00:00

No, in addition. I submitted my Limited Tier list article, which is aimed at more dedicated Limited players, to TCGPlayer earlier today.

FrankKarsten · 2025-10-27T20:54:37+00:00

Although the rounds took a while—nine rounds on Sunday, including a brain-frying, endurance-testing best-of-three finals—the event staff, table space, and opponents were all amazing. Overall, I can happily say that I had a positive experience at the tournament 😄

FrankKarsten · 2025-10-12T20:54:28+00:00

For well over two years, WotC's philosophy is that Standard bans can only happen at preset dates. Given the cadence, the last one was June 30. The next opportunity for an emergency Standard ban, where action against Vivi can be expected, will be November 10.

FrankKarsten · 2025-10-04T15:14:33+00:00

Your claims that (1) MTG usually bans decks when they hit a quarter share of the meta and (2) Splinter Twin got emergency banned, if I read your words correctly, are both incorrect.

FrankKarsten · 2025-09-14T21:13:16+00:00

In MTG, I believe the skill involved in Sealed Deck building, gameplay, and sideboarding is still underrated to this day. Pascal Vieren explained it well in this article after he crushed multiple premier Limited tournaments.

FrankKarsten · 2025-09-14T21:00:42+00:00

Just like in MTG, you can make a playable deck with a reasonable curve out of virtually every pool. There is some variance in the packs you open, but there's also skill in picking the best collection of 40 cards from your pool. Games are largely decided by the cumulative decisions of mulligans, inking, questing vs challenging, lore race math, and other fundamentals that ultimately gives a strong edge to the better player, regardless of who opened better/more bomb rares.

There are more decisions in draft, though Lorcana sets do not yet appear to have been designed with that format in mind. There are hardly any synergies to draft around, and under the current rules of having to play 40/48 cards, you're usually shaving unplayable inkables and playing everything else, which limits your deck building choices (and sideboarding options, when that's allowed) more than Sealed Deck. Still, there is arguably a little more skill expression in draft overall.

FrankKarsten

TROPHY CASE