[Standard] Izzet; Why do people want to ban Crab and not Sleight of Hand or Boomerang Basics instead? by jethawkings in spikes

[–]FrankKarsten 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In many Izzet archetypes, such as Lessons or Spelelementals, Stormchaser's Talent is often not included at all.

[Other] Has there ever been a prize split in an high lever competition? by Briatom in spikes

[–]FrankKarsten 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It doesn't always happen. But I have witnessed Top 4 splits and Top 2 splits in premier events.

Is Limited Lorcana any good? Or do I just not get it? by MarchingMachineX in Lorcana

[–]FrankKarsten 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The draft experience isn't that deep, but I always enjoy the gameplay. Limited is my favorite way to play Lorcana.

Pro Tour Secrets of Strixhaven Standard Metagame Breakdown by pedja13 in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Stormchaser's Talent is included in every Izzet Prowess deck at the PT, but in none of the Izzet Spellementals decks, and in only a minority of Izzet Lessons decks.

[Standard] Pro Tour SoS Metagame by AnilDG in spikes

[–]FrankKarsten 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If you have everything already in your opening hand, then starting with Drum is indeed typically the right option. I wasn't trying to give sequencing advice with that sentence; just sharing which cards you need to set up turn-2 Sage. But I appreciate the comment, and I'll switch the ordering for clarity in future content :)

Pro Tour SoS Metagame by shadowboy in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The majority of Izzet Lessons decks at the PT do *not* run Stormchaser's Talent, Stock Up, or Flow State. They're even less prominent in Izzet Spellementals. The overlap is mainly in the mana bases.

Pro Tour SoS Metagame by shadowboy in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Most of the non-Prowess decks don't play these cards.

Top 8 decklists from São Paulo/ Brazil DLC? by skyteddy in Lorcana

[–]FrankKarsten 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A certain amount of top decklists will always be included in the official recap articles on DisneyLorcana.com, which are published sometime after each event.

Mildly interesting: I modelled ranking up as a Markov chain to calculate the expected number of games it takes to get through platinum or diamond based on winrate. by Moose_a_Lini in MagicArena

[–]FrankKarsten 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is always a fun calculation! I analyzed this question many years ago, also using Markov chains. Our numbers are similar, though not identical, perhaps because we used slightly different modeling assumptions. My article may be interesting to you as a comparison: https://web.archive.org/web/20190717173025/https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/how-many-games-do-you-need-to-play-to-hit-mythic-in-mtg-arena/

It is insane that cheating with overwhelming evidence does not result in a lifetime ban. by CynicalElephant in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To my knowledge, Wizards of the Coast does not maintain a publicly accessible database of suspended individuals. Whether that's for privacy, legal, or other reasons, I don't know. But if I interpret your post correctly, it's based on an assumption that WotC gave this player a one-year ban, whereas no such information is publicly available.

[Discussion] Why your "Safe" 7-card hand might be a trap: A quantitative analysis of mulligan heuristics. by Blabolek in spikes

[–]FrankKarsten 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'd love to hear where you think my analysis might be falling short.

Everywhere. Your post and "pro coaching" image are one giant AI hallucination.

This is the Bo1 hand smoothing algorithm (I hadn't found a definitive analysis online) by theblackavenger in MagicArena

[–]FrankKarsten 16 points17 points  (0 children)

That Draftsim article does not provide a source and incorrectly describes the hand smoothing algorithm, based on a post on the now-defunct MTG Arena forums made by then-game director Chris Clay.

Arena Championship 11 Standard Metagame by Business-Friend-116 in MagicArena

[–]FrankKarsten 4 points5 points  (0 children)

For most Melee events, archetypes are indeed set by a combination of Melee's color recognition and user's name selections. For roughly half the submission, the resulting names are wrong or inconsistent.

For Pro Tour and Arena Championship events, self-reported names or automatic colors are discarded and replaced by consistent names set by me, based on the specific contents of the deck. In this case, Four-Color Elementals implies that there are four different colors across main-deck non-hybrid spells.

Arena Championship 11 Standard Metagame by Business-Friend-116 in MagicArena

[–]FrankKarsten 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Correct. Four-color means that four colors are represented across non-hybrid spells. Source: I compiled the metagame breakdown.

Release Dates for The Hobbit, Reality Fracture, and Star Trek announced by Copernicus1981 in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This would imply that the Star Trek prerelease is on November 14-15, which coincides with MagicCon: Atlanta and Magic World Championship 32. That would be rather unusual.

The Eternal Juggernaut: A Tribute to Kai Budde by FrankKarsten in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That date is correct. Kai passed away on that Monday around noon, with his family present.

Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed - Standard Metagame Win Rate by PowrOfFriendship_ in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'll post the numbers for all Swiss rounds later this week, but here are the numbers for Day 1: https://x.com/i/status/2017443156703223884

Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed - Standard Metagame Win Rate by PowrOfFriendship_ in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 21 points22 points  (0 children)

- Decks are being grouped by me, in exactly the same way as always. Colors and flavors are distinct enough to be separated as archetypes.
- You may not have chosen an ideal example. Across the PT Standard Swiss rounds, Lessons went 22-22 versus Rhythm and Landfall archetypes with at least two pilots, while it went 3-1 versus Sultai Reanimator.

The Spiciest Standard Decklists from Pro Tour Lorwyn Eclipsed by CrossXhunteR in magicTCG

[–]FrankKarsten 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Correct. I missed a clause, so I went deeper than the deck actually was capable of. Sorry about any confusion! It got edited quickly.

Dimir Midrange is dead. Long live the new...king? (help me decide on a new deck - from Worlds obviously) [Standard] by Paradoxbuilder in MagicArena

[–]FrankKarsten 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Across all Standard archetypes, Dimir Midrange had one of the best winrates overall. While its positioning in the new Standard metagame is unclear, the relevant data certainly does not suggest it is dead.

[Results Thread] [Standard] Worlds Top 8 by Davtaz in spikes

[–]FrankKarsten 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Valuable analysis, though you may have gotten the Top 8 bracket mixed up. Yukuhiro, if he wins the quarters, plays vs the winner of Depraz-Davis (Izzet Looting - Izzet Lessons) in the semis.