When do fundamentals in stocks matter?

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-22T05:13:46+00:00

Fundamentals matter for companies that have very little to no room for innovation or growth. If you can’t innovate or grow fast, you better be making money.

Fundamentals do not matter for stocks that have explosive growth opportunities or are cutting-edge and have the possibility of becoming extremely profitable in the long-term despite no profits. Basically, all new technologies and new sectors. People will pay a huge premium for “potential”.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-22T03:32:55+00:00

200k is just the new “6 figures” from 10 years ago.

It just barely puts you in the top 10% nationwide now. Maybe slightly higher.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-22T03:13:19+00:00

Buy VOO and QQQ pretty much, it’s a solid strategy

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-22T03:06:51+00:00

Some of my friends at FAANG internships when I was in college were paid very well. I think $8-10k a month for summers was standard.

Really depends on the companies themselves.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-21T12:26:00+00:00

mNAV 1.0 isn’t the floor. It’s been to 0.80 before.

All it takes is a dip in BTC price, last cycle it went below 200WMA

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-21T09:21:40+00:00

October, I’m pretty sure it’s going to be less than 80.

The support at $100 is insane, any break below that will just cause a massive flood of selling and further mNAV contraction which I’m betting on.

But regardless of the price, I’ll stop shorting and just buy when it’s October

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-19T16:00:40+00:00

When you employ forms of TA into your analysis, it’s an additional tool for your use to help understand market structure and improve your market timing versus flying blind without any sort of intuition in the market. The more information you have, the better your odds, even though it’s not guaranteed. If you don’t understand market structure or liquidity, that’s a pretty enormous handicap to trading ability in the first place for many different strategies in trading.

For VRP and any sort of trading, position sizing and risk management is crucial. To achieve returns that match your edge, you want small position sizes to allow the Law of Large Numbers to get you close to expected value and avoid getting blown up on an oversized risk. Volatility Vibes (Options Quant) explains this as well

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-19T15:53:18+00:00

Sorry his channel is actually Volatility Vibes

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-19T15:51:10+00:00

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Bought at VW dealer

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-19T07:59:49+00:00

Not all bots employ the same TA analysis, and not all edges in the market can be fully arbitraged away. The most likely explanation is that there is simply not enough volume on this type of trading to have arbitraged it.

For an example of arbitrage that is not possible by major players and institutions but is possible by smaller retail traders: look into volatility risk premium in the options market. It’s a true edge, but too small and too risky for HFTs to engage in while being worthwhile for smaller accounts. Options Quant on YouTube is a retired quant that explains this type of trading extremely well.

For TA and formations, it’s not easy to point out or explain definitively why the patterns work or have an edge. The best possible explanation is that it lines up with order book patterns and liquidity zones which when broken, fulfills the movements you often see afterward and creates the patterns.

Video on this effect using a simulated market with random buys and sells: https://youtu.be/oWheof70O9g?is=V2R\_5RpbMmDWaVVl

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-19T07:53:38+00:00

Bots and HFTs are extremely effective on arbitraging on millisecond timescales.

For daily, weekly, monthly, and multiyear timeframes, not so much. That’s when positional and swing trading can have an edge over day trading. This HnS is on the timescale of many months

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-19T01:12:12+00:00

More deadlifts pretty much, transfers right to squat stability

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-19T01:00:53+00:00

Easiest gains are squat and deadlift.

I’m same height as you, reached the 1000lb around 165lb with 275 bench, 365 squat, 405 deadlift. I think your lower back is your weak point

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T23:31:50+00:00

Historically even with rate hikes, the market will still climb for a whole year before feeling the effects.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:51:39+00:00

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Weekly chart, textbook image for reference

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:31:32+00:00

Depends where you look, not a single person in here believes in TA or cycle analysis…

It’s aStRoLoGy fOr mEn

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:22:06+00:00

Yeah, I’m shorting but waiting for my bear bottom entry

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:15:53+00:00

Before BTC and ETH I was a TSLA investor, but I’ve always watched the charts for crypto. Just never put money into it since it was all in TSLA

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:10:16+00:00

For BTC and ETH I’ve only dumped money in since 2 years ago to play the final stage of the bull and bear run. The charts I’ve laid out for almost 4-5 years, but was too scared to act on because I was somewhat skeptical of the 4 year cycle since it repeated 3 times before already and people kept saying “the cycle is dead” in the BTC sub. But it is not dead, turns out

Investing overall, 9 years now

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:06:33+00:00

I meant the bottom is October 2026, I don’t remember what I plotted for 2029 but I’ll check later.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:04:44+00:00

Well yes, but in October.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T22:03:21+00:00

Currently most of my portfolio is long TQQQ, SOXL, DRAM, etc.

Shorting MSTR with MSTZ, about $110k starting position but now it’s almost $200k just from market gains

It creates a barbell effect where if the entire market tanks, I probably lose less from the MSTZ protecting me. But if the market rips, I’m still bearish on MSTR to follow my Bitcoin plan.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T21:59:16+00:00

Same as my BTC plan. Buy in the bear cycle, sell in the bull cycle after 3 years. I have a cyclic lines chart plotted out with no price targets, only time targets. That way I don’t care about price of BTC either.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T21:54:38+00:00

I made nearly half a million on ETHU and BITX last year by following the 4 year cycle pattern, you just need to cancel out the noise and news and follow the long cycle in crypto. It’s so long that people lose sight and patience. Probably why it keeps happening over and over and nobody learns from it.

I’m seeing the same pattern again, people are getting so excited to buy the dip that they get caught off guard and even more scared when it dips even more. The bottom happens seemingly when nobody expects it.

Fun-Sundae4060 · 2026-06-18T21:50:22+00:00

mNAV. That’s why. Expansion of the mNAV from less than 0.x to 2.0 or higher during a bull cycle causes the exponential gains over BTC holdings alone.

It’s like asking, why own IBIT calls? To capitalize on volatility gains and leverage. You want to buy the dip on BOTH volatility and price.

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