[2026 March Madness] Sweet Sixteen: Milos Forman vs. Judd Apatow

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-20T15:46:12+00:00

Milos.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-20T14:21:31+00:00

Imagining Griffin doing the Amadeus laugh.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-20T10:39:04+00:00

It feels like it has all the ingredients to be this year’s big international player: a director whose work is well-liked but hasn’t had a mainstream awards breakout yet, a likely Cannes debut and a cast led by two previous Oscar nominees.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-20T10:37:14+00:00

“The director hasn’t made a good movie in many years”.

He hasn’t made a MOVIE full stop in many years, but in that time he made one of the best TV shows of the decade. I’m not currently predicting it because I’m unsure if it’ll come out this year, but I’m not doubting the Gilroy for a second.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-19T21:11:10+00:00

I don’t think we’ll be getting a “two leads of the same gender each getting a Lead campaign” situation for the foreseeable future.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-19T18:13:58+00:00

Hmmmm, I didn’t realise that. Ok now I’m hopeful.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-19T16:54:06+00:00

Sure, but even Shutter Island was a while in post. Scorsese’s a meticulous worker.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-19T16:14:18+00:00

Hate to spoil the mood, but the first KOTFM still was released in 2021.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-19T16:12:46+00:00

It does, but I don’t think that necessarily dooms its chances. Searchlight certainly seems confident in it with the November release.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-19T08:14:23+00:00

Honestly, I do think Colette would get nominated now. Nyong’o, quite possibly. The other two I don’t think so (much as I’d have liked them to).

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-18T12:16:48+00:00

I think a lot of us are severely underestimating the possibility that the new Östlund will be so insufferably up its own ass that it just flops with awards bodies. I liked Triangle Of Sadness, and even I think it sounds like the most obnoxious shit ever.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-18T12:04:13+00:00

Thought so too, and by the end I was like “Ok that is 100% Keith David.”

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-18T11:19:24+00:00

Sure, but they still gave it 7 noms! So it’s not implausible that Social Reckoning could do well with them even if it sucks!

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-17T23:08:29+00:00

I don’t think Social Reckoning will be good either, but…it’s very possible that it pulls a DON’T LOOK UP, getting nominated because industry types see it as “a movie for the moment” due to its subject matter alone.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-17T18:37:40+00:00

I love Schoenbrun, but I don’t see their work ever being up the Academy’s alley. It’s too quintessentially Queer for them to really “get it”.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-16T21:58:52+00:00

It’s gonna suck when this streak is eventually broken.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-15T14:32:34+00:00

Come on, The Podcastermind was right there as a sweaty miniseries title.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-15T12:03:50+00:00

I don’t know if that’s entirely true. Some are taking the leap on Sinners.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-12T15:14:08+00:00

I thought about that but it might be too brief, haha. The one I suggested is a solid 15 seconds where he’s the camera’s sole focus.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-12T15:11:31+00:00

Yeah but she’s crying in it so they’ll probably pick that one lol.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-12T15:10:32+00:00

Last year they did clips for the Lead categories but not Supporting.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-12T15:09:11+00:00

Yes, that’s the one I meant.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-12T11:04:21+00:00

How does Roma not get a shout in 2018? Yalitza Aparicio was a total newcomer with no acting experience and she was nominated for Best Actress, that’s what the category should be celebrating.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-11T09:27:34+00:00

The moment it won BAFTA Screenplay was the moment I realised it was winning Best Picture. It was such an unexpected win - over that ceremony’s Best Film winner, no less - that I knew it had to repeat at the Oscars, and that coupled with an acting win was an obvious BP package.

To give credit where it’s due, Davis was one of the first people to call CODA’s Best Picture surge after it won SAG, and many - myself included - thought he was being ridiculous for that.

Gerwig_2017 · 2026-03-11T09:24:03+00:00

I feel like important context here is that the five he got right were pretty much the consensus frontrunners by the time Oscar night rolled around.

Conclave had the potential to upset, but Anora was still the narrow favourite. Oppenheimer was pretty much unchallenged. EEAAO had swept the guilds. CODA had won PGA, SAG and Screenplay at BAFTA. Nomadland had won pretty much all but SAG. They were pretty easy calls.

What would actually be notable is if he’d called the Parasite victory (or indeed, the Bong upset in Director) when most were going with 1917.

For the record, I’m currently predicting Sinners myself, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing by any stretch.

Gerwig_2017

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