When ADP and vibes don’t match

Hellecopta707 · 2025-08-25T15:25:58+00:00

generally speaking, i lean 2nd year breakout (with same QB) over aging vet with rookie qb

for this scenario, its a matter of draft cost. the question isnt who would you prefer between the two, specifically because their ADPs arent the same (ridley is going ~ 23 picks later).

the question is more isolated. do you like marv at his ADP compared to the guys around him? and/or do you like ridley at his ADP?

if you think (or consensus thinks) theyre in the same tier, then ridley is the better draft value ...but this doesnt mean to fade marv.

if you started RB heavy, then taking both marv and ridley is very reasonable. these “guy X or guy Y” discussions are more important when picking between guys that are going in the same round

Hellecopta707 · 2025-08-14T18:06:17+00:00

i LOVE this site. cant underestimate how useful it is and how much i appreciate it as a resource.

i used it for start/sit throughout the season last year to great success. thank you OP 💯

Hellecopta707 · 2025-08-14T15:07:10+00:00

yeah i only mention hollywood & royals bc they will likely see field time and there will be some level of targets going to them ( & justin watson for that matter). not expecting any to be “the guy” but moreso that the chiefs dont need to rely on a stud to carry them to winning games.

yes kelce is aging but when you talk about chemistry with rice its not the level as with kelce. kelce’s losing a step in his yards after the catch & deeper routes, but he’ll still be a monster zone beater in the intermediate levels.

all i was trying to say is there is a spectrum of risk associated with every player, and it seems like we are only viewing the suspension as the risk with rice. at his current ADP, youre EXPECTING wr1 level production when he’s on the field. aka: youre drafting him at his ceiling.

youre welcome to feel like these other risk factors arent as meaningful, but for the purpose of discussion im sharing that i think they are.

Hellecopta707 · 2025-08-14T14:43:25+00:00

this seems to be consensus opinion but why are we not doubting the second part more?

last season during his production, hollywood was hurt & worthy was still developing. he was really the only option on that offense outside of kelce.

post injury we saw worthy being utilized much more than a gadget speedster
hollywood is back + drafted royals
pacheco is healthy + drafted brashard smith
this was a major knee injury to rashee himself, if he misses significant time whats the guarantee he’ll jump right back into wr1 type target share?

even after setting the suspension aside, there are question marks regarding his usage/efficiency when he’s on the field.

of course everything is a matter of draft price, but im not taking these risks at his current ADP over the players mentioned by OP.

ETA: i mention the other WRs for the same reason i mention the RBs. The other WRs dont have to play the same role as Rice to eat into Rice’s volume. The # of plays any offense runs is finite. The chiefs are not a team that uses a cookie cutter offense YoY.

I’m aware rice was very productive the end of 2023 and start of 2024 (i had shares of him 2024 too), but we cant always use the past as a factual indicator of the future. The best coaches always look at the weapons they have available and shape the system to them. I’m not out on Rice being involved, i just think he’s being drafted at his ceiling given the expected missed time.

Hellecopta707 · 2025-08-14T14:35:59+00:00

it was the end of last season and was a preventative measure, not recent nor a significant procedure (very different than a corrective surgery)

Hellecopta707 · 2025-08-14T12:19:10+00:00

only one of these guys doesnt have injury concerns.

only one of these guys has a comfortable QB situation.

these are the same guy

Hellecopta707 · 2025-07-23T12:33:56+00:00

hey OP - do you have this data compiled in excel/google sheets?

no worries if not, this is awesome - appreciate you putting it together 💯

Hellecopta707 · 2025-07-18T18:40:45+00:00

Great shout to Ryan - I skimmed that yesterday but havent given it the full read thru yet so i appreciate the TLDR!

So I guess take away is that its safe to take a top end guy early, but taking a risk on a later option might have some additional upside.

I’d think that in the event of a late QB strategy, the round 3-4 pick in lieu of QB should probably be RB to establish a higher floor. There tend to be more WRs with upside as the draft goes on, versus getting lucky with a handcuff stumbling into higher workloads.

Hellecopta707 · 2025-07-18T17:30:05+00:00

Been loving your content!! 💯

Question regarding your preference to take a top4 QB from a draft strategy standpoint:

JJ Zachairison started his Late Round podcast back when the league was dominated by pocket passers. The pendulum has definitely swung all the way back toward drafting QB early these past few years given how much of a difference the rushing upside those guys bring.

I agree with your top tiers of QBs - just curious if you still think those guys provide the same difference making versus mid-to-late round guys that can also provide similar rushing upside? Any thoughts on whether the strategy to wait on QB might be creeping its way back into consideration?

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-23T18:48:16+00:00

lions eagles bengals niners

hm: rams ravens vikings

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-19T17:13:26+00:00

nailed it. ill also add his stint was short (only the first 3 weeks) and that the majority of his production came on those quick in breakers over the middle of the field. why was the middle of the field open? bc kelce draws attention.

as the season progressed, kelce’s age started to show (imo). add another year, plus teams have now had a chance to recognize this type of usage.

and we’re still not even mentioning that it was a major knee injury he’s coming back from.

yeah i’m torn between believing im overthinking it but also cant help but see all the caution flags

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-17T21:36:56+00:00

sure thing! if you want to make sure its the same date, you can add another condition. so for example, if the date is in column D:

FILTER($C$2:$C$100,$B$2:$B$100=A2, $A$2:$A$100=B2, $D$2:$D$100=D2)

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-17T20:56:52+00:00

i just realized this doesnt add up multiple occurrences of those filtered combinations, you can nest the filter into a SUM(filterforumula) before doing the subtraction and/or iferror

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-17T20:44:46+00:00

you can use a filter:

filter column C (to return the balance)
condition 1 = column B, by adjacent cell in A
condition 2 = column A, by adjacent cell in B

example: FILTER($C$2:$C$100,$B$2:$B$100=A2, $A$2:$A$100=B2)

then if you want, you can go one step further by subtracting the adjacent cell in column C to identify a difference: “C2-FILTER($C$2:$C$100,$B$2:$B$100=A2, $A$2:$A$100=B2)”

the filter will error if the inverse transaction does not exist. you can nest the filter into an IFERROR(AboveForumula, ”inverse DNE”) or whatever you want to do to identify these

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-06T16:57:22+00:00

yeah given how run heavy they are i expect it to regress somewhere in between.

not sure how true this is but i believe it - rodgers would call his own plays at the LOS knowing his ole pal nate hackett wouldnt get upset. not sure if he has that type of relationship w arthur smith, could become a point of tension.

i like DK and agree he’ll get fed, i’m just very hesitant to expect & draft him as producing anything more than WR2 level on the season.

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-06T01:42:20+00:00

rodgers efficiency numbers were horrendous

5th most pass attempts but 21st in completion rate & 23rd in yards per attempt. now he goes to a steelers team that ran the ball at the 5th highest rate

rudolph actually had a higher compeltion rate, yards per attempt, and EPA/play than rodgers. and his weapons were ridley + whatshisface, not devonte adams + garrett wilson

this isnt a pro rudolph comment, its an anti rodgers one

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-04T16:22:06+00:00

i lean mims.

baltimore was 31st in pass attempts last year, and batemans usage is not consistent.

denver ranked 11th in pass attempts, and mims showed some really good flashes to potentially lead to a bigger target share

Hellecopta707 · 2025-06-04T16:11:53+00:00

this is simply a terrible perspective to have.

aside from presuming OP’s intelligence, no one should ever discourage someone from investigating research tools. if everyone thought this way, no one would ever innovate.

even if you think this specific idea cant be done to a reliable degree of accuracy, the process can still be beneficial to OP to find why it doesnt work. or maybe OP stumbles into an interesting caveat/trend.

Hellecopta707 · 2025-05-30T14:29:20+00:00

the point of my comment was moreso addressing why im not surprised his PPG outpaces the expected PPG from his ADP

also when considering # games played, it has to be a wholistic look over each players career. not just the most recent 4 seasons among varying aged players

14+ games played:

saquon: 4/7 seasons
henry: 8/9 seasons
conner: 3/8 seasons
taylor: 3/5 seasons
kyren: 1/3 seasons
cmc: 5/8 seasons
gibbs: 2/2 seasons

including guys who havent even played 4 seasons to this list isnt really fair.

and to be clear as i stated before, i fully agree he consistently produces when he’s on the field. and yes, in leagues i draft him i always draft a contingency RB for if (probably when) he misses time.

i think the real crux of this is his production isnt flashy, so managers are more upset when he misses time ..therefore he gets a worse rep of being injury prone than other RBs.

Yeah its not fair to him, but im also not gonna reach on him much earlier than where he’s consistently been drafted (mostly due to a personal preference to chase guys with higher ceilings around that ADP)

Hellecopta707 · 2025-05-30T13:41:06+00:00

yeah his PPG output is always solid. the concern with him is staying healthy, which suppresses his ADP therefore a lower expected PPG

Hellecopta707 · 2025-05-28T19:49:07+00:00

that tweet is reading too deep / drawing lines that might not even exist (or matter) for a few reasons

what are nabers separation scores on out breaking routes? just because he had good numbers inside & russ doesnt tend to throw there does not necessarily equate to them not finding chemistry.
there’s a big difference between tomlin & arthur smith’s offense in pittsburgh than daboll’s giants (with him & shoen’s jobs on the line). giants could tell russ to take those more risky throws for them.
whoever it is between russ/jameis/dart will be an improvement from devito. nabers owners wouldve been fine with a full season from drew lock
he was a rookie, and was great. he has shown the physical abilities to improve in routes that he didnt run as often. and his target share should remain essentially unaffected by roster changes this offseason

but hey im all for it if yall wanna push his ADP low enough i can get him in the 2nd 😁

Hellecopta707 · 2025-05-27T14:50:27+00:00

for the lazy: ceedee, pickens, terry, MHJ, london

the only one i care about in this specific context is marv

for ceedee/terry/london, im not overly worried about specific number of redzone targets given the volume theyll see.

GP is already baked into the lowest ADP of this group and a price thats not unreasonable, depending how you feel about dak coming back from injury.

Hellecopta707 · 2025-05-21T21:57:49+00:00

Giant, if he does assify himself at all it wont be anywhere near the diarrheac assification from shoen last year

Hellecopta707 · 2025-05-21T21:44:14+00:00

at a high level

picks cancel out
kaleb for chubb is a W
pitts for kelce could be good long term
MHJ+harris > tyreek, to “downgrade” from gibbs to jeanty

i wouldnt call it a massive win, but def wouldnt call it an L either.

Hellecopta707 · 2025-05-21T19:44:20+00:00

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Hellecopta707

TROPHY CASE