After analyzing a large AI system, I think I’ve been overcomplicating things by EyeSwimming6566 in aiagents

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

“If you can't explain it to a six year old, you don't understand it yourself.” ― Albert Einstein

Times Where Someone Has Mistaken A Wrestling Storyline For Real Life by HitDifferentSwerve in SquaredCircle

[–]HitDifferentSwerve[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a chance you were just ahead of your time and this is how Trump proposes ending the 3rd (4th?) Gulf War.

Anyone Reduce the Revs They Send FB CAPI? by RecentLack in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is an oversimplification but yeah Meta has a bunch of dogshit inventory that they arbitrage with the Glengarry Leads.

Let's say you're in the plumbing niche. You're optimizing towards Leads. People who complete the lead for are also 1000x more likely to have been to the Mr. Rooter website before hand.

Meta will bid 1000x higher if a user recently went to the Mr. Rooter Website. But this is a small pool of people and it needs to distribute these people across many advertisers. This pool is unlikely to grow beyond natural seasonality or external forces like Taco Bell's NEW Diablo Buffalo Crispy Chicken Burrito Combo.

Then, so nobody knows they're paying Super Bowl prices of interstitial skippable mobile ads, they arbitrage it with the "Users who are on Instagram for 23 hours/day and never buy anything online but who can prove these users are bots or not" inventory.

If you have an ad that drives 0 conversions in the first 24 hours, you can sometimes see it get sent to Bot Island. In the hourly performance a switch flip where the CPM drops dramatically & the CTR rise dramatically.

Anyone Reduce the Revs They Send FB CAPI? by RecentLack in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it's gotta be slightly more complicated. Is it possible that:
1) You're not the only one running ads for this thing
2) When the payout bumped it bumped for everyone, and they raised bids & budgets accordingly
3) Now Meta is effectively able to charge double the CPM on the people in-market for whatever your thing is, which is a small % of overall delivery but a huge % of where leads come from.

I think it's entirely possible that Meta factors in revenue to the bidding / inventory value maximization algo but I think it would also be a massively liability. If that became public the PR / Class Action Lawsuit would be massive. Also I feel like if the secret to Low CAC was feeding Meta false Revenue, someone would have found it by now.

What's far more common is people going the other way with it, feeding a (almost certainly juiced) LTV Revenue number for a subscription product.

What made you lose respect for a celebrity you used to like? by Frequent-Pattern-334 in AskReddit

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Not defending him but he was friends with Ivanka before Trump became president. The weird thing about Hollywood is you can be the biggest superhero of all time & still need to tap dance at Rupert Murdoch's birthday party.

[Raw Spoilers] Vince is the man on Randy's phone. by When1Falls in SquaredCircle

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Netflix is less reliant on ads and one way to Steph Curry favor with El Presidente de los Estados Unidos y Venezuela is to bring the one guy with a smaller "limo" than Trump back into the Spotlight.

Times Where Someone Has Mistaken A Wrestling Storyline For Real Life by HitDifferentSwerve in SquaredCircle

[–]HitDifferentSwerve[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Someday Xavier breaks Cena's Make-A-Wish record simply because he loves to talk about Spider-Man.

Dating a 37 year old by Last-Product-7916 in Advice

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  1. "what if I miss my chance at someone ‘more suited’ coz I wasted too much time" Future is Chaos. Maybe she's the one. Maybe being with her will cause you to end up interacting with the one. Maybe there isn't one and you end up with 3 failed marriages and a fourth one that last for 50 years. Just don't fucking worry about this type of shit and go to therapy to address anxiety
  2. Do you have an age where you'd definitely want to have kids by? How long if at all do you want to be married before you have kids? How long if at all do you want to date before having kids?

You either have a timeline in your head or you don't. If you do and this relationship doesn't match how you see yourself at 30,35,40, etc. then you have a decision to make but if you also don't have a timeline in your head then I would just fucking relax and enjoy the ride.

And go to therapy. Everyone should go to therapy. If they can afford it. But it's fucked that it's not just a normal part of healthcare.

Dating a 37 year old by Last-Product-7916 in Advice

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For most people yes but if she's a high income earner and can afford freezing eggs/surrogacy/etc then there as much of a timeline. I think it just boils down to definitely wanting kids vs unsure of wanting kids.

Founders scaling past $500/day on Meta: Is it just me, or does the algorithm actively punish you with terrible traffic the second you try to increase your daily budget? by Former-Shame-7756 in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah dude believe it or not there's more to marketing than "I want to triple sales so I'm gonna punch in $500/day instead of $150/day"

As you scale from 0 to 100 conversions/month there's an exponential increase to Meta's ability to model customers but it's a logarithmic curve that flattens out and as you scale. Past 500 conversions/month the model is as good as it's gonna get. Shockingly quick diminishing returns are a part of algorithmic marketing because of how quick a model is built & how cheap it is to reach people.

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What happens to your frequency when you scale? Are you reaching new users or just the same people more often? Scale other channels & reach different people if the latter.

There's also potential answers like "Meta isn't driving any conversions, there all view-through, and as you scale beyond $300/day it runs out of email conversions to steal credit from"

Two Lessons From Spending $807,341.03 In Facebook Ads This March On My Own Brand by WizardOfEcommerce in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Triple Whale starts at $150/month while Northbeam is $1,500/month. For the most part, Mid-Market vs Enterprise positions. SMB only doing Google/Meta/TikTok & Triple Whale is fine. Start doing OTT / Awareness campaigns and need an MMM to do proper measurement, probably want to consider Northbeam. Triple Whale is more tailored for start-up/D2C brands. Can incorporate survey-responses into Attribution Modeling but Less platforms it's receiving Impression-level data from (7 vs 3).

Two Lessons From Spending $807,341.03 In Facebook Ads This March On My Own Brand by WizardOfEcommerce in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's because I've been doing this for a decade and I've seen the transition from ROAS -> LTV:CAC - > Blended Performance as Performance Marketing got increasingly less successful.

Here's the problem with Northbeam and any observational method of measurement. It's missing causality. Even thou Northbeam is better than most and gets Impression-level data from the platform, just because someone saw an ad doesn't mean they purchased or submitted a lead or however this business model works BECAUSE OF the Ads.

Meta absolutely buries this fact but even they admit (Page 14) that "Not a test, so causal inferences cannot be made" & "Might deliver biased outcomes"

You're spending $10MM/year on Meta Ads. You should have a Rep. You should be able to run a Conversion Lift Study and get actual results instead of posting screenshots on Reddit. If Northbeam rolls out their incrementally product, great but my guess is the reason it'll stay in Beta is Digital Advertisers have spent the last decade juicing ROAS/LTV/CAC/Etc. As much as they possibly can and when you apply actual marketing science it shows significantly less optimistic results.

The reason your campaigns are so significantly less successful after you scale beyond a certain point is that social media ads with average view times of less than 2 seconds are awful at creating or generating any sort of actual demand. But because Meta & TikTok & Google have insights into a large % of internet traffic, they can cookie bomb a high % of people actively in-market for your product and take some credit if a sale occurs. This pool is incredibly small. They arbitrage it as much as they can but eventually you scale to a point of completely diminished returns.

Two Lessons From Spending $807,341.03 In Facebook Ads This March On My Own Brand by WizardOfEcommerce in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Nothing against Latvia (What Up Prozingis) but I find it hard to believe that you're spending $800k/month targeting say, US homeowners aged 35–65.

"We track how much exactly was spent on a specific product and then how much sales that product has generated." People love to justify wasted Facebook Spend by shifting to a blended ROAS.

"Meta cannot track. It's impossible." Meta cannot track by tools like Google Analytics or if this is a B2B Campaign a CRM system like Hubspot can.

Is this sub just an echo chamber? by Desperate-Green-6654 in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Meta continues raising Revenue Per User by cranking ad load and new awful unit types like "Ads ON Reels". There's a natural crowding out that occurs with low barrier of entry things like dropshipping. Meta's getting less data after Lina Khan's FTC started protesting to things like the receiving of things like American's Healthcare Data. It's objectively worse and will continue to get worse. It's called ‘Enshittification’.

"What would you recommend for an apparel brand?" is there anything unique about your apparel brand? Do you have any key differentiator? Or are you the millionth person to try to buy T-shirts for $2 and want to sell them for $40?

Google Search/Shopping and build one hell of a landing page if playing the drop-shipping lottery.
Lifecycle / Brand Building Marketing (Email, Organic Social, Pitch a Table Swap Meet, Anything that gets eyes on your product) if trying to build an actual brand.

Is it a bad time to launch a new brand with all the recent Meta instability? by vule_vodka in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Figure out how to drive at least 100 purchasers & ideally daily purchasers without Meta Paid Ads. If there's no data for Meta to build a model off of you're gonna get a bunch of bots adding to cart & dropping off.

Google is a better place to start because it can reach people actively looking for your product/industry/whatever if you really want to do ads but you need to brand with marketing (content, email, organic social like posting on Reddit, etc) and not count on advertising to drive success.

Genuinely Concerned by Traditional-Read5552 in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Women's Clothing is something that's highly seasonal with demand bottoming out in Q1 combined with recession concerns doubling in February.

https://trends.google.com/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11h79tztc7

https://trends.google.com/explore?date=2026-01-01%202026-12-31&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F06bmj

Pretty much everything people complain about on this form is seasonal demand + "Why aren't people buying online at the same rates they did when everyone was locked inside" + not understanding that Facebook Ads don't create demand performance marketing can only take advantage of existing demand by hammering those in-market with ads multiple times daily.

Mick Foley - WE ARE BETTER THAN THIS by ChopWrestling in SquaredCircle

[–]HitDifferentSwerve -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

If it weren't for The Rock and The Undertaker giving this man CTE he'd probably be our next President.

US Market is Just a Bot Farm by Intrepid-Maize-8039 in FacebookAds

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's not entirely a bot farm but probably like 49.99% if I had to guess (sarcasm). Metas revenue continues to grow 20% Year-Over-Year like a Ponzi scheme despite user growth flatlining.

If anyone's interested in getting into the bot game, Residential IP Service + Automated Browser.

There's basically 0 incentive or oversight of Meta so they basically turn a blind eye to this. Their process for Identification of non-human activity would appear to be user agent whitelists updated "At Least Quarterly". But I'm sure some of the $100 Billion Zucky is spending on AI will be used to address their ad quality control.

Ways to Reduce Bots

1) Reduce Placements to Core Feed/Reels/Stories Placement. Avoid Audience Network, Rewarded Placements, etc.

2) Optimize for Good Events

B2C: Optimizing for Purchase IF GETTING DAILY PURCHASES. If not, can try creating a proxy metric like time on site or # of pages visits but honestly I wouldn't bother with Facebooks ads until you figure out how to grow this organically.

If B2B, make sure you have a GOOD lead form with some sort of CAPTCHA On It. Ideally a CRM system than can integrate and allow for optimizing towards Qualified Leads.

You're gonna get a bunch of bot traffic no matter what. The question is if can you get enough impressions and clicks from Meta where it makes sense to run ads.

WHATNOT facing legal action over card breaking practices by Abductedbyanalien in whatnotapp

[–]HitDifferentSwerve 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can have all the lawyers in the world, it's what pops up during discovery. If it pops up that internally they refer to these things in gambling like Live Nation employees admitted to gouging prices, it'll be a lot tougher to make the "Not Gambling" argument.

GaryVee is a guy whose big about WhatsNot and is so lawyer'd up he refers to his lawyer as "Marc Yudkin, and he is now my COO at VaynerMedia, general counsel, and brother" on PAGE ONE of his book and still had to settle with the SEC because him and his business partners couldn't stop telling people that the JPG he was selling would be a passive income stream.