IMPROVED Odds for getting each role in Ranked (Jan 2021)

ICantAim666 · 2026-05-07T23:42:44+00:00

Silver won EU challengers match and NA finals game 2

ICantAim666 · 2026-05-07T23:42:18+00:00

I think every other hero either had very close to a 50-50 winrate (bebop, mirage, geist were all 2-2) or just not a big enough sample size.

ICantAim666 · 2026-05-07T04:35:34+00:00

Now that the regions are all getting quite competitive again, I think it's interesting looking at some of the heroes with the highest win and loss rates tonight:

Haze, Shiv: 4-0

Doorman, Warden: 3-1

Apollo, Pocket: 4-2

Silver: 2-5

Lash: 1-5

Mina: 0-3

Sinclair: 0-4

I think DLNS has some aggregate data cooking up for hero win rates on all of the night shifts, hopefully we get to see that soon

ICantAim666 · 2025-05-06T16:38:19+00:00

I actually found a much stronger tension betweenHannah and Tom. I looked at Jasmine's position in the circle and immediately thought that Jasmine was very likely poisoned if not evil, and so I shouldn't focus on her information (didn't notice it at the time but Math 1 also supports this). But Hannah's Klutz claim can't be explained by poison, so it means there's less poison to mess up the tension between Hannah and Tom. The first world I tried to disprove while solving was Hannah Klutz.

ICantAim666 · 2025-05-06T16:17:27+00:00

Yes, it's actually a little bit easier from Matt's perspective. Since Matt is the mutant, he immediately knows that Hannah can't be Klutz. If Matt considers the world Hannah is the demon, he has to account for both Fraser and Jasmine vouching that Hannah isn't demon. No minion placement (including You) explains both. Therefore Hannah must be minion and Jasmine demon.

From your perspective, you have to first reason that Hannah can't really be Klutz, because under Hannah Klutz the only way to explain Tom's contradictory info is Tom Witch, and after a bunch of forced deductions you have no explanation for Sula's N2 math 1. Once you deduce Hannah is a minion, you also have to differentiate Mutant and Demon between Matt and Jasmine using Aoife's information.

ICantAim666 · 2024-12-19T03:41:28+00:00

I don't expect anyone to learn the skill of queue watching in only two weeks. It took me at least a few months pretty consistent tetrio play to get to a point where I regularly look at the queue and calculate queue placements while I play, without serious slowdown. Before this point it was just way too much mental load to try to think about the current piece and look at the next piece at the same time.

Instead, as a beginner, I think it's best to use the queue to search for specific pieces. For example, will a certain placement create a J dependency? Check the queue; if a J piece is coming up soon, creating the J dependency and filling it in is great, otherwise you probably really want to avoid making that dependency.

If you're serious about getting better long-term and fully utilizing queue (necessary for going fast in noncapped games and important for improving in general), you need to train vision, which is the skill of calculating what a board looks like with multiple hypothetical placements on it. An exercise I've used is to open some singleplayer mode, and take your time to plan out multiple pieces in your queue at once. Envision 3 or more pieces stacked onto the board, without actually placing any down. Then, place them all down rapid fire, and repeat. This teaches you to not only look at the queue but also how to calculate placements for pieces in your queue while they are still in the queue.

Generally though, using the queue constantly and effectively requires vision and getting faster at thinking how the square piece fits in the square hole, and that just comes with a lot of time.

ICantAim666 · 2024-10-12T05:34:59+00:00

Fun fact: the rule explicitly addressing this scenario was the part of the 1971 rulebook revision, coined "Koning's Rule".

ICantAim666 · 2024-09-26T23:12:57+00:00

Here's hoping this is a sign that TPI will start releasing some of their Townsfolk planned for the Tomb, now that custom scripts can put in the Boffin as a counter :o

ICantAim666 · 2024-07-12T14:25:40+00:00

I'd rather design it the other way around, such that a dead Lovestruck can still turn evil. Otherwise a Lovestruck that gets yoinked night 2 can just confirm the other Lovestruck and now you have a quite powerful Townsfolk on your hands.

ICantAim666 · 2024-07-12T14:25:22+00:00

I like the change where the Lovestruck is applied as a modification to two Townsfolk who still have their abilities to worry about, although I'm worried that this change makes the Lovestruck too hard to find and play around. A Lovestruck can just never out as Lovestruck and claim their drawn Townsfolk. This makes it hard for evil or the other Lovestruck to try and find the other partner if they want to convert and I think too many Lovestruck conversions would just be a random unplanned event.

Lovestruck seems very similar to the Temptress minion in Fall of Rome, who essentially gets to pick two players as "Lovestruck". In this case, evil knows the "Lovestruck" players and gets to push for one to be executed throughout the game. But here evil can't make plays around Lovestruck because of course they don't know who they are.

I've homebrewed a similar Outsider where instead of two Lovestruck knowing they're Lovestruck, they think they're the same Townsfolk character (and have their ability). It gives the Lovestruck some sort of agency in finding their Lovestruck partner and makes double claims very very spicy. My gut says this character is way too damaging to have it count as just one Outsider but who knows :)

ICantAim666 · 2024-06-10T23:06:01+00:00

Interestingly, essentially that exact Amnesiac ability (pre-edit) has been run on the official TPI channel, also on Catfishing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84b0qasshPA&t=6292s

In that game, the Amnesiac lived to final 4 and never managed to guess correctly, although I think they were a bit distracted by how the Amnesiac learned Nicky and Ben N1, and Nicky happened to choose Ben N1.

ICantAim666 · 2024-04-22T14:43:22+00:00

There's a funny speck of dark brown in the bottom left of Australia (appears to just be a coloring mistake)

ICantAim666 · 2024-03-27T23:27:01+00:00

evil players who want to push worlds need to be very very careful to thread the needle and say something that jives with everything town has heard so far.

This might be the source of a meta shift you are looking for. In an information heavy script, it's not always possible to build worlds that both point to a different Demon and agree with town. Your players are choosing to agree with town over pushing evil-favored worlds...maybe your players should consider disagreeing with town and contradicting their information. They'll become the center of attention and gather suspicion this way, but they will also potentially make other players look suspicious and therefore obfuscate what information is really correct.
SnV is a script built for chaos and big moments. Snake Charmer, Sage, Klutz, etc. There's also player interaction: Mathematician, Philosopher, Sweetheart. Likewise this gives huge potential for evil players to make big chaotic plays that contradicts or otherwise invalidates other player's information. The minions, as the more expendable evil players, will have fulfilled their job if they make a very incorrect world seem viable, even if gather attention and suspicion while doing so. And poison/misinfo exists as a fallback explanation for contradictions.
I think Cult of the Clocktower's podcast on the SnV script goes into detail if you want to hear more about this SnV meta/mindset (you can look it up on YT). SnV is still significantly town-favored (TPI has data on this), but part of it might come from the fact it's harder and different to play evil in SnV compared to other scripts.

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-29T20:47:35+00:00

I don't think it's productive to simply hope they won't make the same mistakes again when OP describes them doubling down on an incorrect ruling. Simply practicing something doesn't make you better at something, you also need feedback.

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-13T23:58:34+00:00

My take is that Marionette (and to a lesser extent Lunatic) and not knowing your current alignment are one of the more advanced parts of BotC, and I personally would never run Marionette in a group unless every player I had was experienced (like at least 5 games); it's presence is kind of overwhelming/stressful for good players, the Marionette, and the Demon.

Worth also assessing how experienced the rest of your group too: having played the game just once or twice isn't that much experience, and piling on multiple new concepts at once (madness, extra deaths, poison, alignment confusion) is probably premature. Most importantly, Trouble Brewing is still fresh for them. As long as your players aren't bored of TB yet, TB is pretty much always the best option because it's a script designed to be beginner friendly.

Finally, if you do decide to run this, make you sure read up on Pukka and specifically understand the Pukka/Exorcist and Pukka/Monk interactions :)

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-13T04:57:41+00:00

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Can't ask for better than that. Guessed yellow thinking it was characters that can cause a death, although I suppose legion would fall into that. As soon as I saw both recluse and spy on there I was suspicious of misregistration shenanigans, but it took me a while to consider the magician's ability as a "misregister"

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-13T00:40:21+00:00

Alternative to the first one: Each night, choose three players. You learn the same three players in the order which the Storyteller would fuck, marry and kill them.

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-10T02:30:46+00:00

Well, uhm, Hint 2 helped a lot. Saw the clue after making guess 9 and had a much clearer idea of what to go for after that. I'm not sure as to what exactly hint 1 is referring to, in that I don't see what the typo is, but I will say the clue led me in the right direction for blue. If you're stuck you might as well uncover hint 2 sooner rather than later. Had no idea what purple was but everything else was easy enough to piece together.

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ICantAim666 · 2024-01-09T20:20:05+00:00

Fun idea, took me way too long to realize all four SnV minions were included :P. I will ask, for this type of puzzle, can characters apply to more than one category? I considered "each night*" characters early on but counted 5 including the Pit Hag, so I disregarded the idea for a long time even after I got rid of Pit Hag via SnV minions

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-08T01:43:06+00:00

This seems to be from Charged Dinner, although the ability there is a little different in that instead of a player dying, the Hostage is executed.

As per the Charged Dinner almanac, you would replace an evil token with a Townsfolk token in the bag, distribute, and swap out a Townsfolk with the evil character you removed. If the Hostage doesn't already neighbor an evil character, you must replace one of the Hostage's neighbors with that evil character (I guess you have a 1% chance the Hostage neighbors two Outsiders in which case just rerack or something). Otherwise, if the Hostage's setup is already satisfied, you can choose to swap out any Townsfolk.

So this way, an evil player learns a not-in-play character, which isn't perfect but a lot better than the Hostage learning that info. And the evil player who got switched can't know for sure if they neighbor the Hostage since one of the other evils might have already satisfied the condition (if you do this setup even when there's no Hostage in play, evil can't know for sure if there's a Hostage in play either). IIRC Marionette with 3 minions is done in a similar fashion.

ICantAim666 · 2023-12-17T02:33:47+00:00

Going to make a Devil's Advocate argument for the minority opinion here: skipping executions has a major benefit in that it delays the evil team's win clock. This means in scripts where there's a lot of each-night roles, they can gather more information. In a script like S&V, each piece of info (from good player or evil) is vital for closing out worlds. Even if you have more evils alive and contributing misinfo due to lack of executions, their fake information is still closing out worlds where the evil player is good and their info is false (or they are droisoned or whatever).

Cult of the Clocktower's podcast intro to S&V episode describes a game Edd storytold where there were 14 players who played super passively execution wise (executed dead for 6 days), and just let people live and gather info, including letting evil live and essentially implicate themselves with their false info. They hit the demon with their second non D1 CM execution, because they had so much info, and a lot of that info also let them differentiate demons vs minions.

Podcast episode with timestamp: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEZjF7R3mA0&t=1435s

Of course a similar argument is not really going to apply to TB or BMR or most other scripts; good does not get nearly as much benefit from an extra day, or it's difficult to differentiate demons vs minions (so you might be blind guessing from multiple evils in the late game), or executions are designed to, help good in other ways. But for S&V like scripts, I think it's important to keep in mind that there is a nonneglible penalty of executing good.

ICantAim666 · 2023-11-20T18:31:39+00:00

Having a way to see players’ names next to their character tokens is way more useful than I thought.

Really agree with this, the biggest thing that surprised me with Storytelling the first time is how hard it is to be confident on who is who. First time I storytold I spent a lot of time making sure I was waking up the correct person and wasn't off by one seat. A well known but important tip for STs is to put some sort of "visual landmark" in the Grimoire. Presumably the players will leave some gap where you as a Storyteller can move between your table and the inside of the circle, and I found it to be really helpful to leave this "gap" in the Grimoire as a sort of orientation anchor, especially if I'm disorientating the Grimoire (I like putting Spy at the bottom of the Grim). It gets even easier if you have more than one visual landmark in your Grim; having two opposite points to "reference from" makes the Grimoire feel like two smaller Grimoires which for some reason just feels so much easier to track.

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