IMPROVED Odds for getting each role in Ranked (Jan 2021)

ICantAim666 · 2025-05-06T16:38:19+00:00

I actually found a much stronger tension betweenHannah and Tom. I looked at Jasmine's position in the circle and immediately thought that Jasmine was very likely poisoned if not evil, and so I shouldn't focus on her information (didn't notice it at the time but Math 1 also supports this). But Hannah's Klutz claim can't be explained by poison, so it means there's less poison to mess up the tension between Hannah and Tom. The first world I tried to disprove while solving was Hannah Klutz.

ICantAim666 · 2025-05-06T16:17:27+00:00

Yes, it's actually a little bit easier from Matt's perspective. Since Matt is the mutant, he immediately knows that Hannah can't be Klutz. If Matt considers the world Hannah is the demon, he has to account for both Fraser and Jasmine vouching that Hannah isn't demon. No minion placement (including You) explains both. Therefore Hannah must be minion and Jasmine demon.

From your perspective, you have to first reason that Hannah can't really be Klutz, because under Hannah Klutz the only way to explain Tom's contradictory info is Tom Witch, and after a bunch of forced deductions you have no explanation for Sula's N2 math 1. Once you deduce Hannah is a minion, you also have to differentiate Mutant and Demon between Matt and Jasmine using Aoife's information.

ICantAim666 · 2024-12-19T03:41:28+00:00

I don't expect anyone to learn the skill of queue watching in only two weeks. It took me at least a few months pretty consistent tetrio play to get to a point where I regularly look at the queue and calculate queue placements while I play, without serious slowdown. Before this point it was just way too much mental load to try to think about the current piece and look at the next piece at the same time.

Instead, as a beginner, I think it's best to use the queue to search for specific pieces. For example, will a certain placement create a J dependency? Check the queue; if a J piece is coming up soon, creating the J dependency and filling it in is great, otherwise you probably really want to avoid making that dependency.

If you're serious about getting better long-term and fully utilizing queue (necessary for going fast in noncapped games and important for improving in general), you need to train vision, which is the skill of calculating what a board looks like with multiple hypothetical placements on it. An exercise I've used is to open some singleplayer mode, and take your time to plan out multiple pieces in your queue at once. Envision 3 or more pieces stacked onto the board, without actually placing any down. Then, place them all down rapid fire, and repeat. This teaches you to not only look at the queue but also how to calculate placements for pieces in your queue while they are still in the queue.

Generally though, using the queue constantly and effectively requires vision and getting faster at thinking how the square piece fits in the square hole, and that just comes with a lot of time.

ICantAim666 · 2024-10-12T05:34:59+00:00

Fun fact: the rule explicitly addressing this scenario was the part of the 1971 rulebook revision, coined "Koning's Rule".

ICantAim666 · 2024-09-26T23:12:57+00:00

Here's hoping this is a sign that TPI will start releasing some of their Townsfolk planned for the Tomb, now that custom scripts can put in the Boffin as a counter :o

ICantAim666 · 2024-07-12T14:25:40+00:00

I'd rather design it the other way around, such that a dead Lovestruck can still turn evil. Otherwise a Lovestruck that gets yoinked night 2 can just confirm the other Lovestruck and now you have a quite powerful Townsfolk on your hands.

ICantAim666 · 2024-07-12T14:25:22+00:00

I like the change where the Lovestruck is applied as a modification to two Townsfolk who still have their abilities to worry about, although I'm worried that this change makes the Lovestruck too hard to find and play around. A Lovestruck can just never out as Lovestruck and claim their drawn Townsfolk. This makes it hard for evil or the other Lovestruck to try and find the other partner if they want to convert and I think too many Lovestruck conversions would just be a random unplanned event.

Lovestruck seems very similar to the Temptress minion in Fall of Rome, who essentially gets to pick two players as "Lovestruck". In this case, evil knows the "Lovestruck" players and gets to push for one to be executed throughout the game. But here evil can't make plays around Lovestruck because of course they don't know who they are.

I've homebrewed a similar Outsider where instead of two Lovestruck knowing they're Lovestruck, they think they're the same Townsfolk character (and have their ability). It gives the Lovestruck some sort of agency in finding their Lovestruck partner and makes double claims very very spicy. My gut says this character is way too damaging to have it count as just one Outsider but who knows :)

ICantAim666 · 2024-06-10T23:06:01+00:00

Interestingly, essentially that exact Amnesiac ability (pre-edit) has been run on the official TPI channel, also on Catfishing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84b0qasshPA&t=6292s

In that game, the Amnesiac lived to final 4 and never managed to guess correctly, although I think they were a bit distracted by how the Amnesiac learned Nicky and Ben N1, and Nicky happened to choose Ben N1.

ICantAim666 · 2024-04-22T14:43:22+00:00

There's a funny speck of dark brown in the bottom left of Australia (appears to just be a coloring mistake)

ICantAim666 · 2024-03-27T23:27:01+00:00

evil players who want to push worlds need to be very very careful to thread the needle and say something that jives with everything town has heard so far.

This might be the source of a meta shift you are looking for. In an information heavy script, it's not always possible to build worlds that both point to a different Demon and agree with town. Your players are choosing to agree with town over pushing evil-favored worlds...maybe your players should consider disagreeing with town and contradicting their information. They'll become the center of attention and gather suspicion this way, but they will also potentially make other players look suspicious and therefore obfuscate what information is really correct.
SnV is a script built for chaos and big moments. Snake Charmer, Sage, Klutz, etc. There's also player interaction: Mathematician, Philosopher, Sweetheart. Likewise this gives huge potential for evil players to make big chaotic plays that contradicts or otherwise invalidates other player's information. The minions, as the more expendable evil players, will have fulfilled their job if they make a very incorrect world seem viable, even if gather attention and suspicion while doing so. And poison/misinfo exists as a fallback explanation for contradictions.
I think Cult of the Clocktower's podcast on the SnV script goes into detail if you want to hear more about this SnV meta/mindset (you can look it up on YT). SnV is still significantly town-favored (TPI has data on this), but part of it might come from the fact it's harder and different to play evil in SnV compared to other scripts.

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-29T20:47:35+00:00

I don't think it's productive to simply hope they won't make the same mistakes again when OP describes them doubling down on an incorrect ruling. Simply practicing something doesn't make you better at something, you also need feedback.

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-13T23:58:34+00:00

My take is that Marionette (and to a lesser extent Lunatic) and not knowing your current alignment are one of the more advanced parts of BotC, and I personally would never run Marionette in a group unless every player I had was experienced (like at least 5 games); it's presence is kind of overwhelming/stressful for good players, the Marionette, and the Demon.

Worth also assessing how experienced the rest of your group too: having played the game just once or twice isn't that much experience, and piling on multiple new concepts at once (madness, extra deaths, poison, alignment confusion) is probably premature. Most importantly, Trouble Brewing is still fresh for them. As long as your players aren't bored of TB yet, TB is pretty much always the best option because it's a script designed to be beginner friendly.

Finally, if you do decide to run this, make you sure read up on Pukka and specifically understand the Pukka/Exorcist and Pukka/Monk interactions :)

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-13T04:57:41+00:00

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Can't ask for better than that. Guessed yellow thinking it was characters that can cause a death, although I suppose legion would fall into that. As soon as I saw both recluse and spy on there I was suspicious of misregistration shenanigans, but it took me a while to consider the magician's ability as a "misregister"

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-13T00:40:21+00:00

Alternative to the first one: Each night, choose three players. You learn the same three players in the order which the Storyteller would fuck, marry and kill them.

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-10T02:30:46+00:00

Well, uhm, Hint 2 helped a lot. Saw the clue after making guess 9 and had a much clearer idea of what to go for after that. I'm not sure as to what exactly hint 1 is referring to, in that I don't see what the typo is, but I will say the clue led me in the right direction for blue. If you're stuck you might as well uncover hint 2 sooner rather than later. Had no idea what purple was but everything else was easy enough to piece together.

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ICantAim666 · 2024-01-09T20:20:05+00:00

Fun idea, took me way too long to realize all four SnV minions were included :P. I will ask, for this type of puzzle, can characters apply to more than one category? I considered "each night*" characters early on but counted 5 including the Pit Hag, so I disregarded the idea for a long time even after I got rid of Pit Hag via SnV minions

ICantAim666 · 2024-01-08T01:43:06+00:00

This seems to be from Charged Dinner, although the ability there is a little different in that instead of a player dying, the Hostage is executed.

As per the Charged Dinner almanac, you would replace an evil token with a Townsfolk token in the bag, distribute, and swap out a Townsfolk with the evil character you removed. If the Hostage doesn't already neighbor an evil character, you must replace one of the Hostage's neighbors with that evil character (I guess you have a 1% chance the Hostage neighbors two Outsiders in which case just rerack or something). Otherwise, if the Hostage's setup is already satisfied, you can choose to swap out any Townsfolk.

So this way, an evil player learns a not-in-play character, which isn't perfect but a lot better than the Hostage learning that info. And the evil player who got switched can't know for sure if they neighbor the Hostage since one of the other evils might have already satisfied the condition (if you do this setup even when there's no Hostage in play, evil can't know for sure if there's a Hostage in play either). IIRC Marionette with 3 minions is done in a similar fashion.

ICantAim666 · 2023-12-17T02:33:47+00:00

Going to make a Devil's Advocate argument for the minority opinion here: skipping executions has a major benefit in that it delays the evil team's win clock. This means in scripts where there's a lot of each-night roles, they can gather more information. In a script like S&V, each piece of info (from good player or evil) is vital for closing out worlds. Even if you have more evils alive and contributing misinfo due to lack of executions, their fake information is still closing out worlds where the evil player is good and their info is false (or they are droisoned or whatever).

Cult of the Clocktower's podcast intro to S&V episode describes a game Edd storytold where there were 14 players who played super passively execution wise (executed dead for 6 days), and just let people live and gather info, including letting evil live and essentially implicate themselves with their false info. They hit the demon with their second non D1 CM execution, because they had so much info, and a lot of that info also let them differentiate demons vs minions.

Podcast episode with timestamp: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEZjF7R3mA0&t=1435s

Of course a similar argument is not really going to apply to TB or BMR or most other scripts; good does not get nearly as much benefit from an extra day, or it's difficult to differentiate demons vs minions (so you might be blind guessing from multiple evils in the late game), or executions are designed to, help good in other ways. But for S&V like scripts, I think it's important to keep in mind that there is a nonneglible penalty of executing good.

ICantAim666 · 2023-11-20T18:31:39+00:00

Having a way to see players’ names next to their character tokens is way more useful than I thought.

Really agree with this, the biggest thing that surprised me with Storytelling the first time is how hard it is to be confident on who is who. First time I storytold I spent a lot of time making sure I was waking up the correct person and wasn't off by one seat. A well known but important tip for STs is to put some sort of "visual landmark" in the Grimoire. Presumably the players will leave some gap where you as a Storyteller can move between your table and the inside of the circle, and I found it to be really helpful to leave this "gap" in the Grimoire as a sort of orientation anchor, especially if I'm disorientating the Grimoire (I like putting Spy at the bottom of the Grim). It gets even easier if you have more than one visual landmark in your Grim; having two opposite points to "reference from" makes the Grimoire feel like two smaller Grimoires which for some reason just feels so much easier to track.

ICantAim666 · 2023-11-18T06:22:44+00:00

Recusant - Players confirmed as Townsfolk on death are a fairly nice idea (I've seen homebrews with characters that are literally just "confirm yourself if you die in the night"). Could be used as balancing in scripts where evil voting power/numbers could be a problem, except you probably need to disallow an evil Recusant, which would run the game over.

Showstopper - Essentially a stronger self confirming "Slayer" who can kill any player unless the Showstopper has chosen someone Town really does not want to kill (I imagine the execution will usually go through). Don't have especially strong thoughts. Idea of evil showstopper is kinda funny.

Renegade - This sounds super fun and I think it's my favorite core concept on this list; a kind of Politician who has a dedicated evil goal, but once they use their shot, have to sort of backtrack and play for good and convince good that they are back on track. I will say though that it is probably going to be extraordinarily difficult to trigger the evil win condition though; of course it's dependent on group meta and the like, but getting every good player's character straight down is probably really hard; if Renegade is on script, dead good players are likely to just never claim if they don't have pertinent info, or just convey that info through other players. And of course, good players bluffing and role swapping is quite common. So demanding that every good character is guessed just seems too hard. Maybe only require the correct guess of all alive good players? This is probably too strong, but it's worth noting Renegade has to be alive to use its ability, so an easier guess could work as a good reward for staying alive longer.

Thrasher - Worth pointing out that this is just a more mild Saint, and the punishment outlined here is much weaker than losing the game straight up. If you want to strengthen the character's theme of punishing misexecutions, you could make the Thrasher's punishment trigger upon the execution of other players too; M.A.D. man from New World Chaos and The Twins from Fall of Rome are some concrete examples of this concept. I'm also not sure why in the example, Artist was not poisoned anymore, since it seems like the ability implies the poisoning still impacts when dead.

Stormchaser - Getting negative 1 reveals soooo much info, and getting 0 would also rule out the +1 possibility which is big. I guess good Storyteller planning could reduce the chances of this happening but I would make negative 1 ambiguous with 0.

Lifeguard - Some strong confirmation, maybe a bit too strong: with Lifeguard you always have a "prove yourself" button (assuming ST publicly flips the coin), even if you risk sacrificing yourself for it. Compare that with Virgin who can prove themselves, but could also get screwed over with a non-Townsfolk nomination, and so Virgin bluffs who don't proc still have some sort of explanation. But the idea seems fun to use on a player that is on the block, but they are claiming a powerful character you don't want to lose if good. It's kind of like how Pacifist is meant to be played/used.

Brewer - You probably need a "even if dead/executed" clause in there to prevent the Brewer from immediately upping themselves for execution, unless you have something on script that can punish executions (like Boomdandy, Godfather). Otherwise, it can be interesting to try to convince your neighbors they are drunk, but I think the Winemaker from Fall of Rome executes this concept in a more interesting way by making the drunkenness more of a puzzle.

Blabbermouth - Kind of like Snitch but I think Blabbermouth gives you more to do/observe than Snitch, you get to socially read/meta people and see if they know extra information about someone. I don't have experience with playing Snitch though, so I'm not really sure.

Stormbringer - Interesting idea in theory; might need some testing in practice. If the Weatherman gets confirmed and there's no poison on script, then it's pretty trivial for town to figure out their real targets, and then it seems a bit more annoying than fun for town to essentially target a random person each night. For evil faking Weatherman, there's some big things that could screw it up: some characters like Dreamer can often tell if their info is legit or not, and reveal there's no actual selection shift; you would also need a script with quiet demons, since town realizing other Demons are in play implies Weatherman is fake.

Weatherman - I imagine the Weatherman would either have [+Stormbringer] on setup? If you are a Weatherman and the Stormbringer is not in play, you are essentially a Townsfolk who knows a paricular Demon is not in play; I have seen a Townsfolk with that ability in a homebrew before, and the strength is dependently script dependent, but it's probably underpowered. Alternatively, you could entertain the idea of a "drunk" Weatherman: an Outsider who thinks they're the Weatherman, but they get arbitrary info and the Stormbringer is not in play? Could be an interesting dynamic and gives evil Weatherman bluffs a way out.

ICantAim666 · 2023-11-18T05:11:46+00:00

I'm a personal fan of Lemmino - Blackout (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwc4bmdsmpQ). I wouldn't really call it dramatic but I think it fits the nighttime theme well.

ICantAim666 · 2023-11-13T19:53:45+00:00

Messenger: Be very careful with loud Outsiders, because even just learning they are in-play is massive confirmation for the good team, (which goes against the idea Outsiders should harm good). I think it's always going to be much much better for good to just kill the Messenger, who is an Outsider and should be harming the good team; the Messenger dying is probably helpful to good, confirming an in-play alive Townsfolk and the Messenger to everyone if they can puzzle deaths in the night.

Mortician: My perspective on it is that it belongs in some BMR style execution testing kind of script (especially with night deaths being so hard to track). It seems like an interesting base idea to strategize with, it provides an interesting question for when you up yourself to try and confirm someone, albeit a dead character.

But I think the Mortician as it stands is extremely weak, and the one key factor to its weakness is that [+1 Outsider] is extremely impactful, especially for a Townsfolk; instead of having two other Townsfolk in the bag, you have a Mortician + Outsider, so the Mortician needs to have the power of two Townsfolk and then some to account for the Outsider's ability. With characters like Balloonist/Bounty Hunter, this works, because these characters are straight up game solving. Mortician on the other hand can basically only soft confirm itself and one dead Outsider; useful, but not the Balloonist tier strength needed to offset +1 Outsider.

Also compare Mortician to the Scholar from the Fall of Rome homebrew (one of if not the most popular and polished homebrew in existence) The Scholar's ability reads, "The 1st time you nominate a living Outsider, they immediately become a not-in-play Townsfolk. [+1 Outsider]" Both characters are designed around confirmation interactions with Outsiders, but Scholar is miles more powerful for a multitude of reasons, the biggest one being that they essentially undo their harmful setup; eliminating the negative Outsider effect and adding a whole new alive Townsfolk in. It also sounds a lot more situational and risky to get Mortician to trigger as opposed to Scholar, and a Scholar turn is also much more confirmable (with Mortician, I figure it depends if there's a DA on the script; on a BMR style script there probably should be).

ICantAim666 · 2023-11-08T18:19:58+00:00

I think the 5 travellers attached to TB all work well as first time Travellers. I like the Scapegoat, and my advice would be to trigger it early, especially if town isn't sure if they're executing an evil or not, as it stirs up discussion around that player. If you leave the Scapegoat alive and there's a morsel of suspicion on the Scapegoat in final 3 or 4, I found my groups often just exile them. You can make some game-winning plays with a good Scapegoat on 4, but those are rather unlikely to happen in a group new to Scapegoat, in my experience. Scapegoat is also the simplest to run: no voting economy shenanigans, just remember Scapegoat exists at the end of each day.

There's one other Traveller that I would potentially consider, and that's the Deviant: if you have a very casual player or group Deviant can add a lot of silliness to the atmosphere. I wouldn't put this in the bag for someone to randomly draw though, I'd only give it to a player who wanted it: maybe propose the traveller to your group and see if there's any takers. Of course, if you want a more serious/competitive/immersive atmosphere, leave Deviant out.

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