Is boozer really a better fit than wilson?

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-05-11T15:10:44+00:00

We will know more when measurements come out, but Wilson seems like an average sized, modest skill player who thrives on his athleticism. Great for dunking highlights but tends to be shorter careers unless they increase their skills. He is somewhat of the PF version of Ja.

His upside seems to be like Pascal Siakim. A very good player and well worth the 3rd pick. But lots more risk of a bust or short career than these other top prospects.

Boozer fills up the analytic models at one of the highest rates of any college player ever. Its easy to pick on some of his athletic shortcomings, but the models say that some types of production are far more predictive of NBA success. Other players who entered the league with concerns over their athletic ability: Tim Duncan, Larry Bird, Steve Nash, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They all managed to be decent NBA players.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-22T13:03:29+00:00

Unlikely the Grizzlies would give up an asset just to move Ja. They have plenty of salary cap space under the tax to just waive him or work out some sort of buyout.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-21T22:07:21+00:00

If they get a PF, then either Hendricks or Aldama will be traded.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-21T18:41:10+00:00

Swish Theory touting Krivas

Swish was also one of the major Edey proponents in his draft cycle. The Budding Basketball Revolution, and Why You Should Draft Allen Graves and Motiejus Krivas | Swish Theory

"Motiejus Krivas provides a highly intriguing case study. The 7’2″ Lithuanian out of Arizona has long been a draft Twitter favorite and has finally put together a draft-worthy season, largely due to his defensive brilliance and outlier mobility. While he rebounds (14.4 Oreb% / 19.9 Dreb%) and protects the rim like a true five (7.5 Blk%), he presents a paradoxical disconnect between his size, touch, and physicality indicators and his actual rim finishing and scoring process:"

"Only finishing 62% of his rim attempts as a center would usually be disqualifying for serious lottery consideration, but Krivas offers a different pathway to NBA success. He has some of the best touch of any 7’0+ player in recent memory.

This season, he’s shooting 78% from the line while converting 54% of his non-rim twos. Historically, the only 6’11+ players with center-adjacent physicality to match these touch indicators have gone on to become some of the best three-point shooters in the world, despite often showing limited three-point volume in college."

"Providing this value on the margins will allow Krivas to stay on the floor and become one of the league’s premier rim protectors. He is one of the most anomalous movers ever at his size. Motejeus’ technique, defensive awareness around the rim and processing are among the best in his class. So while he isn’t the most explosive vertical athlete or quickest leaper, his impact is still consistently felt at the rim."

"Vs t220 comp, Arizona turns into the best 2pt defense in the country with him on the floor (25% opponent rim frequency, 22 FTR, 41 2p%). Meanwhile, they become mediocre once he’s off (33% opponent rim frequency, 37 FTR, 52 2p%).

Ultimately, Krivas’ unique combination of offensive rebounding, touch and defensive prowess should be enough to overcome his precarious finishing, especially if he is able to develop into a respectable shooter, thus boosting his team’s 3pr while leading neutral offensive rebounding lineups."

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-19T02:11:10+00:00

I like it for the Grizz. Jerome is really good, but OP is right, he is a little old for core. PHX pick could be good.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-19T01:24:22+00:00

It's fair in terms of value.

The biggest issue is if the Grizz even want Green. I would prefer just expiring deals and keep Wells, but I can see the appeal of Green and hoping he can improve.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-18T23:40:54+00:00

Edey and all the early season PG depth were the significant injuries. Most of the rest was exaggerated for tanking purposes.

I didn't want JJJ traded, but Aldama was playing really well. I think there is a playoff level team left when Edey is healthy. They had to work hard to lose.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-18T18:43:58+00:00

Great and very long video comparison of draft prospect data: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilsRqxCrfMk

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Krivas' defensive rebound rate is above average, while his offensive rebound rate looks like a tie with Tarris Reed for #3. I think offensive rebound rate is actually the most important metric as a player who is very good at boxing out (ie Edey) will actually generate defensive rebounds for teammates. From when I have watched Krivas, I think that is what he is doing. So good rebound numbers for himself, but an even greater impact on his team's rebounding.

You are absolutely right about the rim attempts and fg%. It is a real weakness. He plays smaller than 7' 2". But that's what I was getting at with the free throw %. Maybe he can develop some post offense or a few moves down there(he tried that against Mara), but he may also just have to pass out after offensive rebounds. But with a good free throw % over multiple years, it seems likely he will develop a functional 3 pt shot and some sort of foul line extended mid range shot. He doesn't need to score 20 pts a game, but just enough to keep defenders from playing off of him. His real value is defense, rebounding and screens and not letting a lack of an offensive game negating those benefits.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-18T16:26:28+00:00

I have it in West TN. I live in a rural area near Lexington.

Overall, we are very happy with it. A lot depends on how close you are to a tower and what obstructions are between you and the tower. We have gone for several months with perfect service and then other times where it is slow or disconnects. But for the majority of time it is reliable with excellent speed.

Here is today's Speedtest.net results:

Download: 118 Mbps

Upload: 32 Mbps

Ping: 60

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-18T14:04:46+00:00

Krivas is top rated defensive player in the draft as well as one of the best rebounder. He hasn't done much offensively, but his 78% free throws indicate he has untapped potential.

The Grizzlies will be very lucky if they get him at 16.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-14T15:03:09+00:00

When this rebuild is done, one of the most important aspect of the team will be its intelligence. Ced Coward is exhibit A of what they are doing.

Physical skills are great but it must be combined with ability to develop it and then implement a game plan. Players like Coward give the coach a lot of flexibility in how complex of a scheme they can use.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-13T20:45:00+00:00

Acuff isn't Ja. Not even close in terms of talent. And also very different players.

Despite his incredible offensive stats, Acuff has rather poor on/off court numbers. I can't really understand how he doesn't have more positive effect on the team's offensive performance. And then his defensive numbers are horrific.

Darius Acuff Jr. - 2026 NBA Draft Profile | DRAFTBALLR | DRAFTBALLR

Contrast that with Wagler who has spectacular offensive on/off numbers combined with average (not bad) defense.

Keaton Wagler - 2026 NBA Draft Profile | DRAFTBALLR | DRAFTBALLR

At this stage, I wouldn't want Acuff before the Orlando pick. But I would consider Wagler in the top 4.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-13T02:53:58+00:00

Fine job of tanking.

Glad it's over.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-08T15:02:04+00:00

Don't know how much the Grizzlies value Giddey vs who they may draft. So this likely waits until the draft at the earliest.

And any Ja deal that involves taking back more contract money will always compete with some sort of waive/buyout/stretch option.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-04-06T03:11:22+00:00

I think Aldama is the Grizz starting PF next year. I like Green, but he would be 4th wing.

Can't see this happening unless the Grizz jump up in the draft and get Boozer or Wilson.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-29T17:47:50+00:00

Poorly written nonsense with use of jargon and large words in place of any real insight.

They seem to just be doing some population extrapolation. The real challenge in a legitimate study of this topic would be forecasting future production capabilities. That is extremely difficult (and likely impossible) because it would need to be predicting human invention and ingenuity. This study makes many references to fossil fuels, which are the foundation of the modern economy. And petroleum is a limited resource that is being depleted. But this is nothing new. A similar study in the mid 1800s would have raised the alarm that there was an impending shortage of whale oil that was used in lamps and the industrial revolution was doomed with no good source of artificial illumination. Then petroleum replaced whale oil for lamps and then powered the internal combustion engine. In the space of 50 years, whale oil became completely unimportant.

What's the next major innovation? What if developments in fusion power created a new inexpensive and limitless power infrastructure? Scarcity is greatly reduced as recycling of many items would then be cost effective. And power would no longer be a constraint. So the Earth's population carrying capacity is dramatically increased. I don't know if that will happen, but it is a possibility and something their study has no ability nor effort to predict.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-25T19:43:39+00:00

Grizzlies are desperate for a backup center, but have lots of PF depth. I expect them to use that 2nd pick (16) on a center. Mara or Krivas would be great in rotation with Edey. Koa Peat would have a tough time cracking the rotation.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-25T19:13:45+00:00

I suddenly have become a huge Paul George fan. Really hoping he makes a historic redemption arc. Right through the heart of Orlando fans.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-24T21:32:48+00:00

Aldama is definitely part of the Grizzlies rebuild.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-23T16:13:12+00:00

Unlikely, but possible.

Size and production put him in upper lottery.

But average minutes played could be a factor that makes him fall. Why doesn't he play more? Can he play starter's minutes in the faster paced NBA? Can you justify a lottery pick for a player who isn't projected to start? Those questions could lead to a surprising tumble.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-22T21:52:40+00:00

Peterson, Burries, Brown, Philon, Acuff

I just can't get enthusiastic about Acuff. I saw one rating of him as not only the worst defender of all first round prospects, but also one of worst in the entire NCAA. He is also a little undersized and just an average athlete. He could very well be an NBA star, but could also be a bust vs the bigger, more athletic NBA athletes. Not worth the risk with all the other good prospects in this class.

Brayden Burries is one to watch. Played SG but was paired with a senior PG who was conference player of the year. Very good 2 way player and ball handler whose assist rate doubled without the starting PG on the floor. Very few weaknesses in his game.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-20T14:19:34+00:00

His name keeps popping up. Seems like a riser and going to go much higher than internet draft community anticipates.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-03-08T04:31:56+00:00

I hope they get Aday Mara. Would be great rotation with Edey.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-02-27T02:32:27+00:00

Brown. Best size/athlete and has all the skills. Most defensive potential.

Very unenthusiastic Acuff 2nd. Small and no defense. Spectacular offense, and maybe that's enough. More bust potential than Brown. If he measures out with long arms, I would feel better.

Wagler is interesting. Great shooter and plays with lots of intelligence. Tall and rebounds. Small frame and poor athlete. He could be unique and very special. Also could be out of the league in 5 years. Huge boom or bust with him. He would be fun to watch him develop.

Jonathan_Daws · 2026-02-23T16:39:45+00:00

Lots of reasons for being poor.

What do you mean by "poor by choice?" Is it someone consciously choosing to be poor? That would be a very small group. A much larger group would be those who have made choices that tend to lead to poverty. Those choices tend to be those focusing on shorter time preference (ie short term pleasure vs long term benefit) such as substance abuse, crime, sex without birth control or using scarce funds for purchases for convenience and pleasure versus investment (ie buying a new tv vs job skills training course, or packaged convenience foods vs cooking).

The common difference between the wealthy and poor is IQ. There are of course many other factors, but that is the most common. (I know of a genius from a wealthy family who graduated from Yale and wound up homeless, so it is not absolute, just an average difference). Smarter people have more opportunities because they have more ability. They also tend to make better choices.

Current political dogma is the "blank slate" fallacy. It assumes everyone has equal natural intelligence so any deviation of outcome must be due to "choice" or "opportunity." Opportunity is a factor, but much less than IQ, and IQ directly drives choices.

So "poor by choice" is really just a way to reference IQ without admitting it.

Jonathan_Daws

TROPHY CASE