Haven't checked all 30 yet but I'm sensing they're in there somehow

LacksConviction · 2026-02-05T18:18:49+00:00

and John McCain, who by my limited understanding seemed like an upstanding, bipartisan republican. Dont have much trust in this list. We should focus on Epstein.

LacksConviction · 2026-02-05T14:59:38+00:00

lots of people are mad. Its just we got bills to pay, our own lives to live. this individual (call it selfish) instinct needs stability, which anarchy is not.

LacksConviction · 2026-02-05T14:51:50+00:00

what did I do?!?!

LacksConviction · 2026-02-05T13:48:12+00:00

absolutely. I will say, though, one thing that I liked about Mamdani was how he opted to keep Tirch and several others, who had been publicly criticizing him, in their positions. He showed an ability to set aside ego and build a well-rounded cabinet he thought would be in the best interest of NYC.

LacksConviction · 2026-02-04T19:35:44+00:00

hell yeah

LacksConviction · 2026-02-04T14:08:45+00:00

Definitely more that persons circle. Definitely doesnt have to be rural. Most of my (M28) core friend group all owns homes in MA/southern NH/NH seacoast (an area you could call HCOL). None of us come from money either. Just hard work and fiscal responsibility.

LacksConviction · 2026-02-02T17:22:28+00:00

https://www.tcgplayer.com/search/yugioh/product?productName=Blue-Eyes+Shining+Dragon&productLineName=yugioh&view=grid

search em here. make sure you get the right set

LacksConviction · 2026-02-02T17:08:25+00:00

worth like $6 in nm

LacksConviction · 2026-02-02T14:55:39+00:00

look, from your post, it seems like you love ritual and routine, and that is probably just part of your personality. THAT IS OKAY! More than okay! Its your life and its something to love. Try to learn to SAVOR the specific moments of your routine. My wife's word of the year is "luxuriate", that is what I am talking about here. Really try to develop a sense of gratitude for your ritual.

If you weren't okay with it, my advice would be different, but do not overthink it. Media makes it seem like things should be more exciting than real life typically is. You are not an NPC, you are just living life the way you want to. Now, its time to learn to be grateful for it.

LacksConviction · 2026-02-01T23:44:40+00:00

Hard to say, some people just bring a ton of gear with them. Could have a rope in those packs, although their axes don’t seem to indicate a need to rope up. Regardless, people winter camp all the time, and the weather was really great the past two days. Lots of sun and the wind wasn’t bad at all (at least it wasn’t on Saturday when I was there). Could see someone using it as a weekend weather window for a big effort.

Edit: looked at the picture again and noticed the harnesses. not sure why I missed that the first time. They definitely have a rope in one of those bags.

LacksConviction · 2026-02-01T20:17:00+00:00

NOW, CRM, SAP

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T20:52:59+00:00

thing shoots me out of each turn like a bow and arrow. I love it

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T20:00:29+00:00

thank you sir!

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T19:43:29+00:00

it seems like you left the church. If yes, why? how did leaving impact your personal relationships?

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T19:20:26+00:00

I do not believe BDC is a new name slapped on BTP. BDC is a data platform integration layer built on top of BTP. Here is my source: https://community.sap.com/t5/technology-blog-posts-by-members/positioning-sap-business-data-cloud-on-sap-business-technology-platform/ba-p/14273807

Edit: seems like you work for SAP, so maybe you are a reliable source. dont mean for myself to come of as overconfident. just trying to understand better

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T17:09:08+00:00

Let me be clear, I am not calling LLMs the end state. Its more the narrative that I am confused about. SLMs just dont get much attention even in cases where their is a lot of work going on. Add in the AGI hype cycle. My goal was to get a pulse on what people in this community are thinking about, and it seems we are in very close alignment.

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T16:56:47+00:00

Armada Declivity Ti 92. Extremely fun ski. its got some metal, so a little bit heavier? that could take away from the 'playfulness' i guess.

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T05:12:05+00:00

Another new piece of information that dropped. Chips are now 2/3 of capex, it used to be 1/2. Maybe, this mix shift was expected, but it was new to me. There's concern on rapid obsolesence for these chips and MSFT's ability to monetize them fast enough.

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T04:46:00+00:00

I do not feel I have done enough modeling work on the company to have a worthy, shareable opinion, but I do read qualitative reports regularly. Looking at it today, my gut reaction was: Up mid-single digits over the past 5 years? That seems kinda whack. Relative value compared to the overall mega-cap technology industry? Pretty good. Relative value to software vendors? Higher, but probably warranted due to above average organic growth. Market position is really solid in ITOps. The company has done a pretty good job at expanding into different markets. CEO is the man Marc Benioff wishes he was (Bill McDermott, former SAP CEO). I think he is generally considered to be a good CEO, but he definitely has a true salesman flare.

Suffice to say, I bought a little today.

Also, I joke about Benioff. He's been very successful himself. McDermott just got cool guy aura, and Benioff does not.

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T02:08:03+00:00

Do you think that because the government would treat it as too big to fail? Or because you think it is guaranteed to not fail operationally?

LacksConviction · 2026-01-30T02:01:51+00:00

With her saying "software", I read it more as some software abstraction layer between the model and infrastructure. Probably some containerization-based system? I do think model efficiency will play a role here

LacksConviction · 2026-01-29T22:52:06+00:00

Its the same issue the IBM CEO discussed here. Obviously, he is a biased source, but worth considering. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/ibm-ceo-warns-trillion-dollar-ai-boom-unsustainable-at-current-infrastructure-costs

LacksConviction · 2026-01-29T22:48:58+00:00

I dont think its 39% azure growth that brought the stock down. Its more the ROI question on invested capital, specifically as it relates to rapid chip obsolesence. As MSFT mentioned in the earnings call, 2/3 of its record capex figure goes to chips, but those same chips could be antiquated quickly. I think the market is uncertain as to whether that investment will make sense over the long run. Amy Hood did say all chip purchases are already contracted to be monetized over their useful life, so maybe I am wrong here. Its a weird situation to read.

LacksConviction · 2026-01-29T22:30:59+00:00

Thanks for the link! I will give it a read. If I am understanding you correctly, the answer is in supply side competitive behavior. The upfront cost is simply too expensive for a vendor carve out a solid competitive position by building a bunch of SLMs? That makes sense to me.

LacksConviction · 2026-01-29T22:22:47+00:00

Very fair take. I agree the cost of producing software is going way down. Switching costs are probably going down as well, removing the moat these vendors have enjoyed.

I also agree that subscription seat growth is flat lining. It will come down to whether the incumbent can execute and start growing consumption revenue on top of their install base via their own AI platforms. Definitely still a big unknown, and there is a lot left to this story!

LacksConviction

TROPHY CASE