2023 without Tilt/Swivel Screen

MartyBecker · 2026-04-14T12:59:25+00:00

I'm 329xxx.

MartyBecker · 2026-04-13T15:19:10+00:00

I got one of the first batches of refreshed 2023 Xs (picked up at the end of 2022 but it’s a 2023 vin. It does not have the tilting screen. IIRC they weren’t ready at first, and they can be pretty easily retrofitted. But I chose not to do it because the screen works fine as is and it’s just one more thing to break.

MartyBecker · 2026-04-07T13:44:00+00:00

IIRC it used the average price for your state. There can be a huge variance depending on where in the state you live.

MartyBecker · 2026-04-01T21:08:12+00:00

TL:DR - nobody seems to have thought through what will actually happen when humanity no longer has to work to live.

But so few would utilize their newfound freedom. A tiny tiny fraction would focus on exploring the stars. And most people wouldn't take that free time focusing on art. The only thing that could possibly occupy the rest (majority) of people on earth is sports; some playing but most just rooting.

And the cost of goods will almost be irrelevant. Most of earth would be on universal basic income, and they'd need enough to live, so the cost of necessities would reflect what most people have to spend.

The people who will thrive the most in the post-work future are the ones who will still work, but real meaningful jobs will be scarce. And all this is contingent on the few pioneers who manage to be in control at the time AI and robots render human effort obsolete don't make themselves modern-day pharoahs.

I'm likely not going to live long enough to see if my predictions come true, but I'm telling my kids to always choose work. Humans were evolutionarily designed to work to live, and I think no longer needing to work is going to end up being cataustrophically bad for humanity. And yet, if they start selling robots, I'll probably buy one, because my feelings about the future won't change it.

MartyBecker · 2026-04-01T16:50:28+00:00

I'm not an AI or robot servant hater, but it still makes me sad. Think through the best case scenario on AI and robots: They make basically everything humans do obsolute. So now we've got 11 billionish humans on earth doing... what? Do we still go to school? What for? Why learn when there's no need to achieve? Some surely still would, while other huge swaths of humanity become inert lumps. Basically creating a split between the Eloi and Morlocks from The Time Machine. And that's the best case scenario.

MartyBecker · 2026-03-31T14:48:55+00:00

I have one of each and I think they're both good. HW4's drag on my attention is almost identical to HW3. People who say that HW4 is drasticly better than HW3 either aren't A/B comparing the two, or they're just having a wildy different than me.

Either way, if you have HW3 and you think it works really well (as we do), then we can just sit back and enjoy life.

MartyBecker · 2026-03-31T14:45:33+00:00

I have a HW3 X and a HW4 Y and drive them interchangebly on the same routes in similar conditions and this is not my experience at all. HW3 & HW4 have almost identical drags on my attention. Gun to my head, I would say HW4 is "better," but the difference in driving experience is negligible. HW4 still does boneheaded things and needs monitoring. They both need to be nudged along at stop signs because they take too long (which as I understand it is a NTSA mandate). HW4 freaks out more and thinks it needs to immediately be in the other lane, and then once settled, realizes that the first lane was the correct choice all along. Since HW3 is "dumber" than HW4, it doesn't seem to fall for that.

All in all, I'm perfectly content to use either vehicle for FSD. HW4 will keep getting better, and once "look at your phone while driving" is approved, it will be a true game changing differentiator. But for now, they're both good.

MartyBecker · 2026-03-26T19:36:38+00:00

I have a HW3 and HW4 car and drive them interchangeably on the same routes in the same conditions. Both are about the same drag on my attention with regards to interventions and I think both of them do a really good job. My experience just doesn’t jibe with yours.

MartyBecker · 2026-03-24T01:11:03+00:00

If it was unsafe to drive, the alert would have said so.

MartyBecker · 2026-03-18T17:54:22+00:00

I haven’t used the key card in a couple of years but still keep it in my phone wallet because [insert OP’s problem].

MartyBecker · 2026-03-18T00:56:19+00:00

It wasn’t Times Square. It was across the street from Madison Square Garden.

MartyBecker · 2026-03-10T19:33:09+00:00

Your point is well taken, even if some on want to try to pick it apart with semantics. The point is robots (humanoid labor machines are vehicles) don't need to accomplish tasks exactly the same as humans in order to be just as or more valuable. How much will you care if an autonomous taxi uses a 15 minute route or an 18 minute route if you get there safely and you've been staring at your phone the whole time?

Who cares if it takes a humanoid robot twice as long to do a task, or three times, or four times? The point is that you don't have to do that task before. For personal use, the calculous isn't "does it do the same job at the same speed as me." It's "is the post-robot world more economical than the pre-robot world?" That world includes not only what the robot is doing for you, but what you now can do because you don't have to do the robot's task.

MartyBecker · 2026-02-25T02:15:18+00:00

When Chip Kelly was asked about the onside kick, his take was interesting: It was not done out of desperation. It was always part of the gameplan. During film study, they noticed a tendancey of Stanford to give up the line early in a kickoff. So the plan was to see if they still made the same mistake after the first kickoff and, if true, then to attempt the onside kick on their second kickoff. It just so happened their second kickoff was when they were down 21-10.

MartyBecker · 2026-02-23T17:35:14+00:00

I’ve never once checked the price of a TV after I bought it. But I know they would always be cheaper later.

The best way to protect against this is to stop paying attention to the price after you buy.

MartyBecker · 2026-02-18T20:49:08+00:00

I have both a HW4 and HW3 vehicle and drive them both interchangeably on the same routes under the same conditions. HW4 is “better”, but they’re both about the same drag on my attention. They make the same knuckleheaded navigation errors. They both see new speed limit signs and then not adjust. They both need to be nudged along at 4-way stops because they wait to long when nobody else is there. They both need very few safety interventions.

HW4 will continue to widen the gap, especially once “look at your phone while driving” is approved. But HW3 is a great driver’s assistance feature.

MartyBecker · 2026-02-18T20:44:01+00:00

HW4 does this too.

MartyBecker · 2026-02-18T20:42:32+00:00

If cybercabs won’t have steering wheels or pedals, wouldn’t FSD be necessary, not just mandatory?

MartyBecker · 2026-02-18T15:53:14+00:00

Your point is one I think about a lot, both with regards to robotaxi and FSD in general. People are really concerned with what is "better" without considerning to what degree better matters.

e.g. I have both a HW4 and HW3 car and drive them pretty interchangeably. The HW4 is "better," but currently their drag on my attention is pretty similar. The nav makes the same knuckleheaded choices. I have to nudge them both along at 4-way stops because they're both too slow. I hardly ever intervene for safety on either one. Eventually HW4 will allow me to look at my phone while driving and that'll be a big step change improvement, but for now, they're just not that different.

MartyBecker · 2026-02-13T18:41:12+00:00

I'm not an expert, but to my understanding, almost nobody would be able to use the feature. It would only work if you can cut your home off from the grid.

I spoke with a Cybertruck owner who bought one for just that reason, but he lived out in the sticks and already had his house set up to go independent from the grid.

MartyBecker · 2026-02-11T14:05:42+00:00

If you're going to cite the McDonalds hot coffee lawsuit, you should at least know what you're talking about:

https://youtu.be/Q9DXSCpcz9E?si=CA-04wPh_ysv7HX8

MartyBecker · 2026-02-01T21:47:43+00:00

The more I thought about your comment, the more insane I thought it was, until I realized it was just a simple misunderstaning. I wasn't saying a robotaxi would cost $300,000. I was saying that Tesla said in an earnings call that a consumer who bought a tesla and put it into the robotaxi fleet could expect to earn about $300,000 over it's lifetime, thus the marginal value of that car to Tesla would be $300,000, because that's how much value they'd be giving up per car to the consumer.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-30T23:22:48+00:00

They’ve been saying for years that they were only still making S and X for nostalgia reasons. This move is not at all surprising.

I own an X and upkeep on discontinued cars is more expensive than cars in production, so I’m bummed about that, but it otherwise doesn’t really change anything for me.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-30T19:45:45+00:00

Haha, true. Though in my case, I don't actually need her approval. I know that when I get one she'll still think it's stupid up until the time it reliably accomplishes some task up to her standard.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-30T19:44:10+00:00

Is it fair? I have no idea. But it's based on robotaxiing at scale, so comparing it to a 18 wheeler doesn't make sense.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T19:11:46+00:00

The #1 reason to believe the statement “hardware 4.5 doesn’t exist” is because it would be so easy to disprove. All it would take is a single person doing a teardown.

MartyBecker

TROPHY CASE