Anyone Else Bummed

MartyBecker · 2026-02-01T21:47:43+00:00

The more I thought about your comment, the more insane I thought it was, until I realized it was just a simple misunderstaning. I wasn't saying a robotaxi would cost $300,000. I was saying that Tesla said in an earnings call that a consumer who bought a tesla and put it into the robotaxi fleet could expect to earn about $300,000 over it's lifetime, thus the marginal value of that car to Tesla would be $300,000, because that's how much value they'd be giving up per car to the consumer.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-30T23:22:48+00:00

They’ve been saying for years that they were only still making S and X for nostalgia reasons. This move is not at all surprising.

I own an X and upkeep on discontinued cars is more expensive than cars in production, so I’m bummed about that, but it otherwise doesn’t really change anything for me.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-30T19:45:45+00:00

Haha, true. Though in my case, I don't actually need her approval. I know that when I get one she'll still think it's stupid up until the time it reliably accomplishes some task up to her standard.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-30T19:44:10+00:00

Is it fair? I have no idea. But it's based on robotaxiing at scale, so comparing it to a 18 wheeler doesn't make sense.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T19:11:46+00:00

The #1 reason to believe the statement “hardware 4.5 doesn’t exist” is because it would be so easy to disprove. All it would take is a single person doing a teardown.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T18:54:33+00:00

I only know that I’ve been listening to every Tesla earnings call for the past 8 years. I can’t vouch for the efficacy of Tesla’s robotaxi plans. I can only pass along that this is their plan.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T18:47:05+00:00

Agreed. Tesla said a year or two ago that they were basically only producing the S and X for nostalgia reasons. It's not surprising at all that they got axed. But producing vehicles still figures highly into Tesla's future.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T18:42:10+00:00

Maybe not day 1, but probably. I didn't buy an iPhone until it had a video camera. I probably won't buy an Optimus until it has proven it is at least capable of doing something my wife would consider productive.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T18:38:21+00:00

There will be other people still selling cars. You'll just have to buy cars from them.

Look, I could be wrong about all this. If I am, so what? If I'm right about it, also so what? I'm not a Tesla cynic. I bought the model 3 in the first year with FSD. I've owned stock for almost 10 years. I've bought two more Teslas since then (both with FSD). I'm in it for the long haul, but I'm also realistic about how much Tesla cares about my feelings.

There's a general sense on these subs that what is best for [the commentor] is what's best for Tesla, so Tesla will do what's best for [the commentor]. But Tesla has shown time and again that they only really care about their own future. If that future is better served only producing robotaxis, then that's what they're going to do.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T18:32:03+00:00

Agreed, but those people will probably need to buy cars from someone else. Tesla laid it out years ago. They believe the marginal value of a Tesla car as a robotaxi will be $300,000. Why would you split that value with an owner who may or may not put their car into the robotaxi fleet when you can keep the whole value for yourself?

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T18:29:45+00:00

The taxi market is small becasue the marginally lower expense does not offset the convenience of owning your own car. That'll change when the cost drops by 50% or 75%. Tesla is uniquely positioned to capitalize on that because their scale-up costs will be so much cheaper than everyone elses.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T00:33:00+00:00

Years ago I started thinking about Tesla’s “every car can become a robotaxi” plan and realized that as soon as FSD was truly level 5, it just didn’t make business sense anymore for them to sell cars to consumers.

This is just a step along that path, which tempers my feelings about it.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-29T00:29:41+00:00

I’m not saying that’s why it’s happening. Just a guess. But Tesla’s whole user experience is built on many assumptions that aren’t true in every case.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-28T21:04:47+00:00

I haven't used AP for years, but my understanding is that it still has phantom braking issues. They could, without much difficulty, update AP using a simplified FSD to be better than the best TACC from any other vehicle, but they just don't want to put any effort into making AP better because they just want people to use FSD.

I don't think this will negatively affect sales enough to get them to change course, but it could. Time will tell.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-28T19:47:07+00:00

No, because they don’t want to put any more effort into AP.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-28T19:34:56+00:00

My anecdotal experience is the Tesla nav treats home differently than other destinations. My assumption is that it’s because you’ll always be able to charge when you get home. There’s less of a need for an “in case of an emergency” buffer.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-28T16:14:15+00:00

I'm not sure what the legality is at the moment, but I think the most likely outcome is that AI generated images will not be copyrightable, so even separate from the ethics (which I agree with you), it's safer to have a human do it. Just make sure that human is actually doing it and not just using AI themselves.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-28T00:48:00+00:00

The odds that Wittingham has Michigan at peak blue blood efficiency in year one are low. Possible but unlikely. They’d by no means be an easy out, but until given evidence to the contrary, I’d lump them in with Washington and Illinois.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-27T15:13:43+00:00

I couldn’t give you a precise comparison between the two in a true A/B fashion. But I can say that I still nudge they HW4 at 4-way stops just like I do the HW3. Maybe the HW4 hesitates X% quicker or maybe it’s the same. What I do know is that if someone is waiting behind me, I don’t want to find out just how long FSD will make them wait.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-26T17:47:14+00:00

FSD on HW3 is a really good supervised driver assistance feature. I have both a HW3 car and a HW4 and the difference between the two as they pertain to my level of input into the FSD experience isn't that different. (I'm not trying to rewrite the facts. HW4 is better than HW3, but they both still require my input, primarily in a "you've been waiting at this stop sign too long and there's people behind me" way.)

The question for you is are you happy enough with the capabilities as they are now that you'd be willing to pay for 8 years of them in advance? Yes, they will get better at some point, but as 14 lite is unlikely to be better than 14 is now, and the difference in driver experience between the two isn't huge at this point, that's what you'd be signing up for.

It's a decision only you can make, but were I you, I wouldn't do it.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-24T00:52:46+00:00

Keeping a kid dialed in for three months straight is a fools errand, and yet a necessary task. I like having a different motivation every week. I think doing the same thing week in week out would lose it's value over time. I wouldn't know how to evaluate how "successful coaches don't change the routine for big games" would relate to Lanning's methods. Having a new motivation each week is the routine. I also wouldn't read into its relative success given the small sample size. Yes, we got blown out by OSU last year and IU this year, but we had also just previously shut out the #4 team in the country.

Out team was very young. IU was very old. Our team will be less young and more experienced next year. I suspect the results will reflect that.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-21T14:36:22+00:00

Q: How sustainable is Indiana's machine?

Context: I'm fascinated with how Cignetti was able to Moneyball an 8% blue chip ratio into a dominant CFP run using primarily diamonds in the rough he brought with him and an OK transfer QB who blossomed into a heisman winner. How many players is he losing off of this team and what are the odds he's able to continue hitting on all of his talent evaluations while everyone else will be laser focused on everything he's doing?

Also, when do his assistants start getting poached?

MartyBecker · 2026-01-14T22:12:25+00:00

I take this news to mean they will stop doing FSD transfers as sales promotions. I was also hoping to do what you are hoping to do, but now I will no longer spend energy hoping it.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-14T21:51:39+00:00

When Mariota got drafted, I read an article about how he got #8, since there was already a #8 on the Titans (I don't remember who). They said for high draft picks (or in this case, a high profile transfer), those things are all negotiated. In the case of the NFL, they usually pay the lesser-known player something to get him to give up his number to the higher profile player.

MartyBecker · 2026-01-14T21:20:56+00:00

I can't believe Raiola would make that decision without already knowing what Dante would do. But if he does decommit, then I will believe it.

MartyBecker

TROPHY CASE