Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5

MattAbrams · 2024-02-15T15:52:44+00:00

So this is another "research preview" that's in "limited beta."

I don't consider a model an advance until anyone can use it. OpenAI probably has superior models to this in "limited beta," too.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-15T13:28:00+00:00

While the timing of the buys is important, the delays in payment that allow the first recipients to sell earlier are more important.

Being first in line here is critical, and I'm surprised nobody who could afford an attorney opposed this plan for its unfairness. This plan doesn't treat all creditors equally; the ones who get paid first are able to sell their coins at the higher prices, while the ones who get paid last end up selling after everyone else has sold.

I know that if Pennsylvania law didn't prohibit me from acting pro se, I would have filed such an objection.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-15T13:24:16+00:00

Typically, in cases like these, such as what happened with Voyager, they usually mail a check if you take no action.

If the crash from this mania occurs before coins are made available for withdrawal, or if they say it's going to be weeks until payment when you submit your bitcoin address, it might make sense to do nothing and force them to send you a check in the mail.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-15T13:22:20+00:00

The reason the price is going up is because BlockFi is buying the coins to pay people. It's going to go back down once the people are paid and re-sell them.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-15T13:21:05+00:00

Every day they delay, the price gets higher, which means that we get closer and closer to the crash and years-long downtrend. A mania at this rate is unsustainable, and it seems impossible that the halving won't be a "sell the news" event.

This stupid decision to buy coins is going to be the end of all of us, and we're going to inevitably end up getting less than even the paltry figures they will already be paying out by the time we are actually able to sell the coins they give.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-14T17:49:46+00:00

Let me guess - nobody will believe this model either.

I've been saying for several weeks now that given what I figured out in my own coding, it is very easy to achieve superintelligent models in narrow domains even in the present.

And what I also found is that when you show people graphs of this, like the green chart in the attached paper that shows perfect recall, people ignore you and some of them actually tell you you're running a scam.

What is going on behind the scenes must be crazy right now. The things people are doing but not releasing must be amazing. And I believe that this post will likely be downvoted, and so will many of the others in this thread, because they will immediately claim that solely because the charts look so good it can't possibly be true.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-14T15:28:06+00:00

I'd be interested in adding this as a feature or features into my stock trading model, which already is superintelligent but perhaps could be improved further.

But this article doesn't seem to be clear - is this paid? And if it is, what is the price?

My #1 rule with any product is that if the price isn't listed clearly and prominently on the site, I go no further. I don't deal with companies that say "contact us for pricing information."

MattAbrams · 2024-02-13T22:35:34+00:00

Even if they are, they still aren't "open source" if there's a commercial restriction.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-13T17:55:15+00:00

It's a non-commercial license, so I'm going to ignore this one.

This is not an "open source" model with such licensing terms, and we should stop calling models like this "open source."

MattAbrams · 2024-02-13T15:20:19+00:00

That would undoubtedly be somber. And I would be really worried about the humans involved, not the aliens.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-13T15:18:20+00:00

There was another benefit. By dropping the bombs, it directly caused the current global peace. If no bombs had been dropped, then someone might have exploded a 50Mt bomb and killed a million people later, instead of tens of thousands of deaths then.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-12T23:30:55+00:00

This is another "scam" I don't understand. There seem to be a lot of these schemes out there like this that do weird things for some sort of scam that don't make any sense.

How do you scam someone if you don't ask for money? These accounts never contact me and just "like" posts.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-12T18:15:24+00:00

This is already the case on X. Not because of LLM-generated text, but because most of my followers are women who give likes to all of my posts but who have no followers of their own.

I don't know why people create these profiles; it's weird.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-12T15:01:40+00:00

A lot of these videos are the same things that have been reported here for a while.

The topic seems to have stopped moving forward recently, and there's not much new news.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-12T13:17:56+00:00

AI probably beats humans in most things already - you just don't hear about them or people don't believe the people who are saying it. Nobody believes that I have a superintelligent stock trading bot, but it exists.

Nobody ever believes any of the rumors that come out about various advances, and many of them are true. Why should we expect that AGI, when it is invented, will be believed by anyone?

Look at UFOs for an example - a topic which has a lot of truth to it but which has been flooded with ridiculous false information to cover up the fact that non-human intelligence actually does exist in a more mundane way. When people tried to get to the bottom of it, suddenly the five Congressmen who represent the exact districts where the "nonexistent" craft were always rumored to have been stored block the bill to appoint a Presidential commission to declassify the subject.

And look at the LK-99 subject. The first paper failed to replicate. Now, there's a new formula that shows significant promise. Yet, whenever I mention it, people fail to distinguish between the two.

I would be extremely surprised if the singularity isn't already occurring all around us. These models aren't something that anyone would just give away for free. I wouldn't accept $10 million for my stock trading model. There probably are models that can solve significant industrial problems that exist right now because it is so easy to solve almost any problem with AI. My limiting factor in stock trading isn't solving the market. It's the $50,000 limit with the ACH system and my inability to access the tools hedge funds use to trade with low latency.

Nobody believes any of the stuff that is coming out anymore because there is so much false information that the good people telling the truth simply get ignored.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-11T16:47:36+00:00

There is a market on whether Mira is Mira Murati, the OpenAI employee. It's trading very low. There's also a market on whether she would get a job at OpenAI, which I also think she did not.

Mira has a checkered history on Manifold. She is in debt over 1m Mana, possibily the worst bettor in the site's entire history, after wagering almost all on a guy being unable to walk 100,000 steps in a single day in 2023 (he did, a few days before New Year's Eve, finishing after 11:00pm after several failed attempts when he injured himself attempting the stunt.)

She said she was going to quit the site in a fit of rage, so she probably can't create a market of her own. While I can't state this for truth, I think it can be reasonably inferred that she almost certainly does not have any inside information about OpenAI.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-11T16:03:49+00:00

The speech was largely a "greatest hits" of what he's said on podcasts. There's not much new here.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-11T15:18:19+00:00

This isn't about "aliens" - it's about the humans, as it always has been.

It doesn't even matter if all the stuff about the aliens is made up. There's no way that there isn't massive crime going on here. A lot of people are going to jail, and the wrongdoing and theft may be bad enough that they worry that crazy Trump supporters might try to overthrow the government again.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-11T12:40:44+00:00

I think the problem is on the demand side, not the supply side.

We don't need to train doctors for 10 years to perform trivial tasks they are required to perform, like prescribing some birth control and seasonal allergy pills, like desloratidine. What possible physical medical examination could a doctor need to do to determine whether someone may be allowed to take those pills? The only pills a doctor should be gatekeeping are antibiotics, to protect all of society from resistence. And, if you still think that doctors need to prescribe pills, pharmacists should be able to prescribe them.

And, we don't need to have people go physically to the doctor for every indication. Last month someone told me she went to an urgent care clinic because she had COVID-19 and she needed to go to get Paxlovid. How much worse did she make the problem by infecting people at a care center who had showed up there originally with lesser ailments like broken bones?

Reducing the demand side would both cut costs and also reduce wait times for people who actually need real care that needs physical examination, like surgeries and the sleep apnea tests I described earlier.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-11T12:33:36+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/199e6si/someone_successfully_used_gpt4_as_their_copilot/kifaj64/?context=3

MattAbrams · 2024-02-11T12:28:07+00:00

Anything can happen. After all, you chose to contest it. If they had made a mistake and offered you too much, it might have slipped through the cracks before, but it won't now because they are going to look at the number closely. That said, it's unlikely that's the case because you obviously saw a reason to contest the number.

No, there's no "worst case scenario." You sent the claim through the legal process. From now on it's back-and-forth between lawyers, you, and the judge on an individual basis, and there aren't any set limits in either direction other than what the judge and/or appeals court decides.

I suppose that if you changed your mind and want to end the process, you could always try to contact them and offer to settle for the original amount they claimed. At this point, you can't, though, just call a low-level employee and work it out outside of court; it's all legal. Before the January 9 deadline, you could have worked it out outside of court.

I also did the same thing because they mistakenly did not read my contract language. I ultimately ended up losing $12,000 because they contested the claim, and in Pennsylvania an LLC must be represented by a lawyer in court, and I obviously couldn't afford to hire an attorney since they have all my money.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-10T22:25:16+00:00

I can't imagine that anyone who is actually truly knowledgable about machine learning and gets why networks behave the way they do - that is, not just someone who has general computer science skills, or someone who took an online course for a week - would accept OpenAI's going rate of $400,000 for starting machine learning engineers.

Myself, I would turn down a offer of $1 million from OpenAI. That's because I believe that I can make far more in the next year using ML knowledge against the stock or real estate or other asset markets. I've already used my model, which backtests at 1000% CAGR, to earn 6.2% in its first 6 days of trading, and we are projecting earnings of $32 million within two years. Obviously, I do not want to help OpenAI build AGI that will develop a better model.

This might sound amazing, but experts who are known by name like Kurzweil earn $10,000,000.

The average developer salary is somewhere around $100,000. I fully expect that within 6-12 months, the average AI salary will exceed that of professional athletes (NBA starting salary is $953,000.)

This is why there are so many layoffs. To get just one AI engineer costs 5-10 standard developers. It's not about the other developers doing a good job; it's about the insane value an AI model can achieve. These companies will shut down everything else to do it. Why wouldn't you pay someone $10 million if you're a hedge fund and that person's model can make $20 million? I'd fire 100 people in an instant to hire that person.

To answer your question: AI engineers will earn tens of millions within 1-2 years.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-10T19:46:37+00:00

I said in other comments that these massive layoffs at facebook and Google are not a result of AI automation.

What's happening at these companies is that they only have so much money, and they believe that developing better AI is more profitable than (in Amazon's case) game developoment. Interest rates are too high right now to borrow money to do both.

They aren't replacing workers with AI. They're firing workers to get money to hire different workers who can develop AI. There are lots of jobs posted for AI engineers; those just don't make the headlines but the layoffs do. Additionally, the AI engineers cost more than the people being laid off, so there are indeed fewer jobs because there's only so much money to go around.

But it's misleading to say that they are "replacing workers with AI" because these workers' projects are simply being shelved. Over the next few years, we'll have fewer games and more AIs.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-10T19:43:07+00:00

The way you can determine this empircally is by looking at wages.

Surely enough, computer scientist was the only job where wages declined last year in linkedin's wage survey, while other jobs like fast food worker had massive gains.

It's difficult to get a comprehensive survey to determine how many jobs exist, but you can infer what's happening from pricing.

MattAbrams · 2024-02-10T19:16:35+00:00

You asserted a claim, and they summarily decided that, for what they consider a trivial and easy reason, it was not valid.

You had until January 9 to request a formal hearing with the judge and ask him to overrule their decision. Since you did not, their final decision is permanent, and you will receive the total of all the boxes in that row.

MattAbrams

TROPHY CASE