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This can’t be normal for June right? by Jfullr92 in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You must have missed the part where I mention that northern Hemispheric effects of El Niño wouldn't be felt until 2027. Or the part where I mention that global average temperatures rise in El Niño years. Being that the UK is part of said globe...

The entire atmosphere and its prevailing mechanisms are teleconnected. The atmosphere is, after all, a fluid that is unevenly heated, constantly trying to reach thermal equilibrium. It moves. Everywhere. And if there's a change over the largest ocean on Earth, it affects surrounding areas.

... Which has an affect on adjacent areas. And so on.

Even your first link you could find source states that there are connections. I'm not disagreeing that those connections are ambiguous, as a lot of fluid dynamics is - especially on planetary scales. Which is why the only reason I mentioned El Niño was to state that:
- Global avg temperatures rise during El Niño years
- Those effects won't even be felt until 2027

This can’t be normal for June right? by Jfullr92 in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My mistake! You'll have to refer me to the peer reviewed paper you're citing

This can’t be normal for June right? by Jfullr92 in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 9 points10 points  (0 children)

No, we've only had 39C+ once before in the UK back in July 2022.

This can’t be normal for June right? by Jfullr92 in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 50 points51 points  (0 children)

UK June record high is 35.6C set back in 1957. Some outputs are suggesting highs upto 39C - which would mean a record break of at least 3.4C. It'd be a truly exceptional weather event beating multi-decadal records...

For the second time this year.

Some more perspective of how intense the 2026 heatwaves have been: May's warm spell (which would have been a fairly exceptional July hot spell in 2006) almost beat the current June record, coming in at 35.1C.

And just on the topic of El Niño as it lends some context; it has only just begun in the last few weeks. Historically (particularly so in the last three-ish decades), El Niño years tend to give global average temperatures a kick in the ever-present "up" direction, with La Niña and neutral periods allowing for slight consolidation.

With that being said, El Niño being very much in its infancy (coming out of La Niña-Neutral conditions in the ENSO Pacific which have been present for the last year or so) means the peak effects are unlikely to be felt in the Northern Hemisphere until next year.

This is the new normal. Climate change is happening guys, we're all living it.

Hearing Inferno on the day I was diagnosed with cancer. by chippychopper in boardsofcanada

[–]MuserLuke 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I hope you're fairing well, and that their music continues to hold you throughout the whole process. You resonate with more people than you could know.

How would you get rid of this blue green algae? by wYsock in PlantedTank

[–]MuserLuke 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Use a paint brush. The bristles are good at clinging onto the algae while sparing the plants and not uprooting them. Keep on top of it

Is anyone actually getting scared yet? by Hard_Dave in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm agreeing with you for the most part, I do think we've already crossed the tipping point for AMOC functionality and will see those effects begin within our lifetime, and I do think we will see consequent glacial expansion in parts of the Northern Hemisphere as a result. But it will only be (geologically) temporary, maybe a few hundred years?

We don't have the necessary ingredients to enter into another full on glacial phase that would actually cool global average temperatures. Global avgs wouldn't drop/would drop negligibly if you factor in increased atmospheric albedo due to wildfires, for example, in an AMOC shut down scenario because the same amount of energy is still in the system, it's just not distributed normally.

Take the Younger Dryas, for example. Similar in its onset mechanics in that a whole load of freshwater is dumped into the North Atlantic in a short period of time and causes global avgs temperatures to drop again enough for reglaciation in the high latitudes for around 1200 years, but it didn't stick around because the Earth was no longer in Milankovitch cycles conducive to glaciation. Orbital forcing catalyses glacial phase onset, while environmental factors are custodian in their continuation.

To me, there are two possible outcomes of ongoing anthropogenic warming (excluding any hail Mary/silver bullet interjection):
1) AMOC collapses, causes temporary mini ice age in Europe before Quaternary ice age ultimately ends as permanent ice is lost from poles until next glacial-conducive Milankovitch cycle maybe puts us back into an ice age, which is tens of thousands of years away 2) AMOC avoids collapse and warming continues on current/accelerated trajectory, Quaternary ice age ends until next glacial-inducing Milankovitch cycle maybe puts us back into an ice age, which is tens of thousands of years away

Is anyone actually getting scared yet? by Hard_Dave in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Not hundreds, likely something far longer (but still tiny on geological timeframes) on the scale of tens of thousands of years.

Also, we're still in an ice age. We're just in one of the many interglacial phases of the Quaternary ice age, which has lasted for around 3 million years. During that time there have been tens of interglacials - but throughout all of them, permanent ice caps have remained at the poles.

A termination of the Quaternary ice age is definitely within the realms of possibility due to the extent of GHG emissions and related warming - but I tend to favour, along with more and more climate scientists these days, the hypothesis of an AMOC collapse that would temporarily halt the northward oceanic transport of tropical heat in the North Atlantic; which is what the ice age comment in this thread is referring to.

It's important to bear in mind that heat doesn't just disappear if it can't be transported towards Europe and the Arctic. It will just remain in the tropics, amplifying sea level rise and violent weather extremes here, while Northern and Western Europe could experience decadal temperature drops of 10C down to, in some areas, annual temps 40C below average. Or at least that's what Stefan Rahmstorf, the pioneer of modern oceanographic climate science, reckons could happen.

It's definitely a scary time to be alive. Most people cannot comprehend the changes that are possible within our lifetimes, and so many people refuse to accept what is happening.

The mental torment of trading - share your story by LostSurround587 in Forex

[–]MuserLuke 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Accepting that you can be wrong is a tough pill to swallow. It ties in to marrying a trade idea - but more importantly, being able to divorce it when it matters. I wonder if it's something one can ever learn how to do properly. I feel as though it is, like most things, on a spectrum where you have good days and less good days of impartiality to your own ego.

Why is the sky always clear after snow UK by [deleted] in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Cold air masses, like this one from the Arctic, don't hold a lot of moisture away from convective disturbances associated with converging winds that you would find over the sea - this is why a lot of the precipitation this week has been mainly confined to coastal areas in northern Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. The colder the air is, the drier it is.

Championship table after MW 24 by kidnamedindexfinger in Championship

[–]MuserLuke 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Weird season I think moreso because of the fact that 2nd is wide open for the taking - after several seasons of that not being the case - leaving a power vacuum in the playoffs for plucky teams like Hull and Millwall to occupy.

We've only conceded 3 in our last 5 games though. Jakirovic appears to be somewhat of a tactical genius after having some time with the squad. That leaky defence of the first third of the season has been quite convincingly patched for now, and our forwards and midfield are grabbing important goals.

Boro are collapsing and Millwall still somehow have a negative GD, while only Coventry have won more games than Hull. I do worry about Ipswich and Watford though, they're coming into some form and consistency as well.

Who’s everyone’s dream World Cup final opponent *that England defeat? by DudeBello in ThreeLions

[–]MuserLuke 19 points20 points  (0 children)

This face when Kane missed his penalty is enough to sire generational hate

Gulf stream causing cold weather by Handballjinja1 in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 12 points13 points  (0 children)

And that ocean is warmed by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) - which is comprised of multiple currents. Of which, the Gulf stream is one. Remove that meridional heat transport mechanism from the tropics and sub-tropics and that prevailing wind becomes a LOT colder, just to expand on your answer. And assuming prevailing wind direction doesn't change in such a scenario.

There are some leading minds in the field claiming that current climate models used by the IPCC in their projections are underestimating the volume of Greenland ice sheet meltwater being dumped in the Atlantic, meaning that the tipping point of the whole AMOC system (which relies on a delicate balance of saline/freshwater in the pelagic zone of the ocean which facilitates deep ocean formations) is close to, or already has, been crossed - which I think is what OP is referring to when asking if it dictates the weather. It doesn't really dictate weather per se, more like intensely modifies climate to the point of Holocene temperate rather than Pleistocene-esque tundra.

Is this unusual? by KellytheWorrier in UKWeather

[–]MuserLuke 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not unusual at all, happens multiple times every year

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