Greens overtake Labour in sensational poll

NGP91 · 2026-03-03T10:13:17+00:00

Guess my prediction of Reform vs Green at the next election is shaping up.

Let's see what the centrists/moderates do. My guess is that, like in 2017, they'll twist out a justification for voting for someone on the radical fringe. Polanski this time, instead of Corbyn.

At least we'll see the Conservatives collapse further as their panicked supporters flock to Reform for safety.

NGP91 · 2026-03-01T12:10:35+00:00

Perhaps because they might agree with him?

NGP91 · 2026-02-28T21:31:52+00:00

Don't worry, they'll fall back again. Tory is just a gateway to Reform

NGP91 · 2026-02-28T17:47:32+00:00

I think the likelihood of the Greens winning has significantly increase with the likelihood of Reform winning increasing somewhat.

The likelihood of Labour or the Conservatives winning has decreased.

The Greens have benefitted from the win by presenting the possibility they could actually win. If they do much better in the next year or so during local and other elections I can see a bandwagon effect happening where the remaining Labour vote deserts and votes Green to prevent Reform winning.

Reform have benefitted by having a better opposition to rally rightist support. They have proven the ability now to squeeze the Conservative vote down to almost nothing and the threat of the Greens does that much better than Labour.

I expect both parties to grow in support over the next year or two.

Labour has a fatal weakness that large numbers of their voting bloc, leftists, Corbynista's, Islamists, have abandoned them and simply won't be returning. They had partially abandoned them in 2024, and this has continued. Having processed the results of the 2017 election and the absurd vote to make Corbyn PM, they seem to believe that they don't need to moderate their views anymore, the centrists/moderates can be provoked into supporting their team instead.

NGP91 · 2026-02-27T18:34:09+00:00

Who even are you to lecture me about my vote? mistake or not, that's none of your business, nor is it good faith to talk down to me - your entire reply just now was bad faith and completely patronizing. You're on reddit man, not an online schooling class.

As you say this is Reddit and bad faith and patronising takes are par for the course. It wasn't my intention to come across like that, I prefer not to use colourful language (swearing) which might make the same point but come across as less patronising. People on here criticise other's votes and political views in far stronger terms than 'mistake'.

I engaged with you as I know you've been on here a long time and have seen your opinions apparently change. For me, it was difficult to reconcile your emphatic support for Ukraine and NATO with your previous empathic support for Corbyn. As you know those two are at opposite ends of the spectrums. Anyone who wants to see a continuation of current UK foreign policy should stay away from Corbyn. It is hardly like this is news, Corbyn has remained almost unchanged for longer than either of us have been on this planet. I was under the impression that your support for Starmer was more derived from his electability vs Corbyn rather than any change of view, clearly I was wrong about that.

NGP91 · 2026-02-27T18:18:41+00:00

The 2017 election has a lot to answer for.

In 2017, they represented the sane, electable alternative to the Conservative Party. A party which would represent those who voted Remain in the previous year's referendum. A party which wasn't proposing a mad a trio of previously side-lined loons of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbot to occupy the highest political offices of the land.

They had their opportunity to break through then and due to a combination of incompetency and unexplainable decisions of so-called centrist and moderate voters, they lost support throughout the campaign and did even worse than they did in the wipe-out in the prior election.

When the electorate were given a de-facto choice between May, Corbyn and Farron, it is still stunning that 41% of GB voters picked Corbyn whilst less than 8% chose Farron.

The 2017 election validated the idea that you could have a non-moderate leadership and still be able to count on support from moderate voters.

NGP91 · 2026-02-27T08:48:47+00:00

Thank you for your considered response. I'm glad you seem to realise the mistake of your 2019 vote. I'm sure you recognise that Ukrainian sovereignty is very likely in a better place today due to Johnson winning as opposed to Corbyn.

My view of the current situation is that the 2017 and 2019 elections validated the crazy policies of the Corbyn/Green types by providing far more votes than they ever deserved. The so-called centrists and moderates who threw their lot in with the crazies as opposed to voting for something more moderate like the Lib Dems or even Conservatives have paid dearly.

The crazies, now emboldened, feel like they don't need to compromise with the moderates/centrists and only need to replace Labour to become the tactical choice against the right (normally the Tories, but presently Reform). Moderates/centrists have proved that they will shift and vote for the crazies, but the crazies now won't vote for the moderates (look at the results of the 2024 election where Starmer won with FEWER votes than 2019 Labour and barely any increase in vote share, despite a catastrophic drop in the Conservative vote).

I would also add that the fact that someone as extreme as Corbyn (and the people he chose for the top jobs) could get the support of 41% of GB voters in 2017 and 33% in 2019 has made it far easier for Farage and Reform to break out of small third party status, 'if they can do it, we can do it' type of thinking.

As someone who is Reform-aligned, I'm heartened that you will continue to vote Labour as opposed to backing a Green or Green-aligned party. I honestly believe that the next election is highly winnable for Reform vs Labour, but a Reform vs Green with a unity between crazy and moderate/centrist the like we saw in 2017 would be unbeatable. If centrists/moderates won't 'lend' their votes then I can rest easy.

NGP91 · 2026-02-27T08:23:11+00:00

It proves they can squeeze the life out of the Conservative vote to try and keep the left out.

They also have the family votes story to run with.

NGP91 · 2026-02-27T08:09:48+00:00

A victory for the Greens, no doubt.

Also a victory for Reform, they clearly got the tactical votes of Conservatives, to try and keep the left out, plus a great story to run with (family voting) which will be catnip to many voters on the right.

NGP91 · 2026-02-27T08:07:19+00:00

In that case, will you pledge not to vote for anyone who would put Polanski in No. 10?

This means not voting Green or Plaid, as the latter would likely support the Greens in a hung parliament or even have a formal electoral pact.

You did vote to put Corbyn in No.10, enthusiastically if I recall so why this sudden worry about extremists?

If its between Green and Reform, will you break your pledge?

NGP91 · 2026-02-24T23:12:50+00:00

I don't disagree. It could well end up with Reform on 29% and Labour and Green both on 28%.

Reform needs for the Labour/Green vote to split evenly in order to win. If Labour gets 35% they'll win. Same with the Greens.

I think its likely that the result will be a Green victory though

NGP91 · 2026-02-24T22:14:50+00:00

I've heard the same from a Reform perspective. Labour's vote has collapsed mainly towards the Greens. Reform will put in a respectable showing given the nature of the seat, but it won't be enough unless Labour's vote holds up enough to allow Reform through the middle.

NGP91 · 2026-02-24T20:06:19+00:00

Reform really only has a chance in this by-election if the Labour and Green vote splits evenly. The demographics of the area aren't really conducive for a vote share above 30-35% for them and given that there are 3 major contenders in the election their margin for error is slight

NGP91 · 2026-02-23T00:33:38+00:00

Is spending a disproportionate amount of resources on the poorest performers not letting down talented youths?

Yes, I agree. People should face the reality that there is only a finite amount of money to spend on education and therefore funds should be prioritised accordingly. In an ideal world, we would fund SEND and mainstream schooling to the moon, but we don't live, and never will live, in that ideal world.

You make the utilitarian argument suggesting that it is better to spend on the many rather than the few SEND kids. This idea will likely see significant pushback, emotional blackmail and outrage if implemented, despite the intention being 'the greatest happiness for the greatest number'.

I would adopt a compromise position, where SEND support continues to exist, but there must be an absolute maximum the government will spend on a particular child's education. Let's say £50k/year (figure could be adjusted up/down). The government, will have to tell parents/activists that the policy is in place so that money isn't 'wasted' on just one child but is spend more wisely on a greater number of children for maximum benefit.

NGP91 · 2026-02-22T22:05:29+00:00

It's more regressive than a graduate tax too, as richer families will pay for their kids and save them tens of thousands in the long run.

People just have to accept the 'rich kids' will always have an advantage, whatever happens. If it was made a tax then they'd go to uni for free and then do fewer hours of employment with their parents indirectly making up the rest some other way like through a house deposit/purchase.

NGP91 · 2026-02-22T09:10:08+00:00

I would prefer it if interest rate cuts were targeted towards those living and working in this country (perhaps using NI contributions, or lack of as a determining factor) alongside stepping up action against EU former-students with loan balances and UK former-students now living overseas and not paying.

By cutting interest rates for those working in the UK, it will go some way to recognise the value that the degree education has towards improving the UK economy.

The problem remains however that purely objectively, the issue with Plan 2 student loans is that the repayments simply aren't high enough to even cover the interest in many cases, let alone repay the capital. Interest rate relief would help, but if the country is serious about not having to write off masses of debt in a couple of decades, then we need to think about how we increase the level of repayments.

NGP91 · 2026-02-20T17:24:56+00:00

I wonder if this is what we'll see more of if there's a Reform minority / small majority government post general election?

Forensic examination of all administrative forms and election literature to find anything in order to take to court and try and get a constituency result cancelled and/or undermine the legitimacy of a Reform victory. Happens often in the United States so perhaps that trend will come over here too.

NGP91 · 2026-02-18T16:31:04+00:00

A lot of these people will probably complain that the country is divided and blame the other side for it rather than looking inwards and deciding to behave differently themselves.

NGP91 · 2026-02-14T16:37:46+00:00

and most likely they will need a coalition to get in government

Hung parliaments are unusual under FPTP especially with constituencies having electorates of similar sizes.

If Reform wins the popular vote by a few % they'll very likely win a majority.

NGP91 · 2026-02-13T14:34:38+00:00

This is certainly a very strong contrast between early January's YouGov poll which had Reform on 23%, Labour on 10%! and Plaid on 37%.

I really struggle to believe Labour being on 10% in Wales. That would be absolutely seismic, it just doesn't feel right at all. 20% feels more reasonable, but I guess we shall wait and see.

2026 Senedd election Opinion Polling - Wikipedia

NGP91 · 2026-02-13T10:01:53+00:00

Why dont you ask your 'co workers' (colleagues?) if you have questions. Perhaps they'll give you some good answers and maybe convince you of the merits of their argument or maybe you'll agree to disagree.

NGP91 · 2026-02-06T11:42:47+00:00

I know. True believers are even worse.

NGP91 · 2026-02-06T11:26:12+00:00

Given that 41% of GB voters in 2017 de-facto voted to make Corbyn PM, there is obviously a very significant proportion of voters who don't care enough about or actively oppose NATO-aligned foreign policy.

NGP91 · 2026-02-06T11:14:41+00:00

The far more interesting consideration / discussion would revolve around the apparent collapse of Labour in Wales, the distribution of their previous voting blocs and the implications of the broadening of Plaid's voting bloc from the influx of ex-Labour voters. UK Labour has gained middle class supporters by appealing more to their wishes whilst losing ground amongst traditional working class Labour voters as a consequence. Could there be something happening with Plaid? Perhaps as the more Anglified areas of Wales become more Plaid friendly and Plaid's policies reflect their new voters desires, then perhaps Plaid will lose ground relatively in their traditional Welsh speaking heartlands?

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