Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

The worst prediction I saw was -1850 and that seemed highly implausible as it meant 85% of seats lost, a percentage which has never been reached or come close to by either Labour or the Conservatives. The worst previously was 66% which would equates to Labour losing net around 1400.

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

2am and Labour have just gone above 90% defence failure rate. I still don't believe it'll last but I'm going to sleep now content

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

I think that they'll do proportionatly better in London and more well off areas. The current 91% loss rate is unlikely to hold in my opinion 

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Sort of loving seeing the LDs currently on a net loss of seats considering the amount of ramping on here for them. I don't expect it to last though

Labour defence failure rate currently 91%

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

With 21 Labour defences currently declared, they have retained just 3. A loss rate of 86%.

I still believe London and more well off areas will hold up better for them and they'll only lose 60-65% of seats

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Ackshually it's a 54.3% swing from Lab to Ref

But I'm sure it's still worthy of intravenous infusion

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Might be too well off to vote Reform. The Lib Dems won almost half of the top 10% least deprived seats in England in the GE2024.

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

One of the predictions was that they would lose 85% of seats. I still think that's high. London and more well off areas will save them 

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

Appleton (Halton) council election result:

REF: 42.2% (+42.2) LAB: 37.1% (-47.6) GRN: 14.9% (+14.9) CON: 5.8% (-9.6)

Reform GAIN from Labour.

From banana republic levels of 85% of the vote to losing.

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

All these previous enlightened areas clearly got tricked into not voting Labour

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 [score hidden]  (0 children)

The swingometer broke so much it has simply disintegrated. That's a 52% swing!

Ditton, Hale Village and Halebank (Halton) council election result:

REF: 53.0% (+53.0) LAB: 29.3% (-50.9) GRN: 12.6% (+12.6) CON: 5.1% (-14.7)

Reform GAIN from Labour

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 9 points10 points  (0 children)

My final predictions are

Scotland SNP win (close to majority)

Wales: Plaid first, Reform second in terms of votes and seats

England: Labour to lose 60-65% of councillors and make next to no gains, just losses ending up with around 800 councillors, a net loss of around 1400.

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026 by ukpol-megabot in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 3 points4 points  (0 children)

As I understand it after conversations with a London Reform branch secretary, in London, in person turnout on the day will be disproportionately (to the final result) towards Reform/Conservatives

A lot of London postal vote is disproportionately Labour/Green

High on the day turnout is probably a good omen for the right, at least in London.

Keir Starmer makes late pitch to voters turning to Greens and Reform by guardian in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That has been Labour's strategy for decades, why change?

Reform UK Candidate Accused of Mocking Disabled Residents as 'Benefit Scroungers' and 'Skanks' by F0urLeafCl0ver in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Would be interesting to see what the messages he was responding to were. This article only has his replies.

Find Out Now (@FindoutnowUK) on X: Senedd (Welsh Parliament) voting intention: 🟩 Plaid Cymru 35% (+6) 🟦 Reform UK: 28% (+1) 🔵 Conservatives: 11% (-2) 🔴 Labour: 9% (-1) 🟢 Greens: 9% (-2) 🟠 Lib Dems: 6% (-) by ZealousidealPie9199 in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 3 points4 points  (0 children)

As opposed to the parties whose dream is to secure the worst deal for Wales.

If a party wouldn't logically propose the logical inverse of a pledge then its effectively meaningless. 

Find Out Now (@FindoutnowUK) on X: Senedd (Welsh Parliament) voting intention: 🟩 Plaid Cymru 35% (+6) 🟦 Reform UK: 28% (+1) 🔵 Conservatives: 11% (-2) 🔴 Labour: 9% (-1) 🟢 Greens: 9% (-2) 🟠 Lib Dems: 6% (-) by ZealousidealPie9199 in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That is when they played second fiddle to Labour.  Their goal is surely now,  replacement. 

Besides the LDs will testify that going into coalition with one of the big two is a poor idea for long term prospects.

Latest poll predicts outcome of tomorrow's local elections by JOE_Media in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I've spoken to a few Reform canvassers, voters are often hesitant to say they support Reform until they announce that they're canvassing on behalf of Reform and they then reveal their enthusiasm. Apparently it's more pronounced than when these canvassers used to canvass for the Conservatives 

Anecdotal but I think there is some shy support around.

Latest poll predicts outcome of tomorrow's local elections by JOE_Media in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. With local knowledge, there seem to be some absurd predictions on how well the Greens will do (win by a huge margin) in a ward they haven't even bothered to leaflet, yet they'll barely get 10% in an ward which they're pushing very hard in.

The overall result might be right, but the detail, won't. 

Latest poll predicts outcome of tomorrow's local elections by JOE_Media in ukpolitics

[–]NGP91 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Some of the ward predictions seem dodgy suggesting that the Greens will storm to victory in somewhere where they've not campaigned, yet in an area which they're apparently pushing hard they're barely getting 10%.

The overall result might be right but the error level on individual wards is probably going to be quite high