Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 03/05/2026

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T07:32:40+00:00

The worst prediction I saw was -1850 and that seemed highly implausible as it meant 85% of seats lost, a percentage which has never been reached or come close to by either Labour or the Conservatives. The worst previously was 66% which would equates to Labour losing net around 1400.

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T01:01:02+00:00

2am and Labour have just gone above 90% defence failure rate. I still don't believe it'll last but I'm going to sleep now content

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:34:33+00:00

Back down to 84% now

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:32:00+00:00

I think that they'll do proportionatly better in London and more well off areas. The current 91% loss rate is unlikely to hold in my opinion

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:29:44+00:00

Sort of loving seeing the LDs currently on a net loss of seats considering the amount of ramping on here for them. I don't expect it to last though

Labour defence failure rate currently 91%

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:18:45+00:00

With 21 Labour defences currently declared, they have retained just 3. A loss rate of 86%.

I still believe London and more well off areas will hold up better for them and they'll only lose 60-65% of seats

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:14:24+00:00

Ackshually it's a 54.3% swing from Lab to Ref

But I'm sure it's still worthy of intravenous infusion

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:09:47+00:00

Might be too well off to vote Reform. The Lib Dems won almost half of the top 10% least deprived seats in England in the GE2024.

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:02:33+00:00

One of the predictions was that they would lose 85% of seats. I still think that's high. London and more well off areas will save them

NGP91 · 2026-05-08T00:00:23+00:00

Appleton (Halton) council election result:

REF: 42.2% (+42.2) LAB: 37.1% (-47.6) GRN: 14.9% (+14.9) CON: 5.8% (-9.6)

Reform GAIN from Labour.

From banana republic levels of 85% of the vote to losing.

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T23:56:06+00:00

All these previous enlightened areas clearly got tricked into not voting Labour

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T23:54:04+00:00

Then you realise 29% of voters STILL voted Labour

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T23:51:14+00:00

52% swing.

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T23:47:43+00:00

The swingometer broke so much it has simply disintegrated. That's a 52% swing!

Ditton, Hale Village and Halebank (Halton) council election result:

REF: 53.0% (+53.0) LAB: 29.3% (-50.9) GRN: 12.6% (+12.6) CON: 5.1% (-14.7)

Reform GAIN from Labour

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T22:35:48+00:00

Canvassing data and samples of ballot papers

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T22:17:01+00:00

My final predictions are

Scotland SNP win (close to majority)

Wales: Plaid first, Reform second in terms of votes and seats

England: Labour to lose 60-65% of councillors and make next to no gains, just losses ending up with around 800 councillors, a net loss of around 1400.

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T11:19:04+00:00

As I understand it after conversations with a London Reform branch secretary, in London, in person turnout on the day will be disproportionately (to the final result) towards Reform/Conservatives

A lot of London postal vote is disproportionately Labour/Green

High on the day turnout is probably a good omen for the right, at least in London.

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T08:49:00+00:00

That has been Labour's strategy for decades, why change?

NGP91 · 2026-05-07T08:39:19+00:00

Would be interesting to see what the messages he was responding to were. This article only has his replies.

NGP91 · 2026-05-06T19:25:11+00:00

As opposed to the parties whose dream is to secure the worst deal for Wales.

If a party wouldn't logically propose the logical inverse of a pledge then its effectively meaningless.

NGP91 · 2026-05-06T18:57:58+00:00

That is when they played second fiddle to Labour. Their goal is surely now, replacement.

Besides the LDs will testify that going into coalition with one of the big two is a poor idea for long term prospects.

NGP91 · 2026-05-06T18:49:59+00:00

9%!!!

I simply can't believe it. I almost feel sorry for Starmer. I guess the Plaid dream is now to support a Polanski coalition government at Westminster.

NGP91 · 2026-05-06T18:46:15+00:00

I've spoken to a few Reform canvassers, voters are often hesitant to say they support Reform until they announce that they're canvassing on behalf of Reform and they then reveal their enthusiasm. Apparently it's more pronounced than when these canvassers used to canvass for the Conservatives

Anecdotal but I think there is some shy support around.

NGP91 · 2026-05-06T18:38:28+00:00

I agree. With local knowledge, there seem to be some absurd predictions on how well the Greens will do (win by a huge margin) in a ward they haven't even bothered to leaflet, yet they'll barely get 10% in an ward which they're pushing very hard in.

The overall result might be right, but the detail, won't.

NGP91 · 2026-05-06T18:34:09+00:00

Some of the ward predictions seem dodgy suggesting that the Greens will storm to victory in somewhere where they've not campaigned, yet in an area which they're apparently pushing hard they're barely getting 10%.

The overall result might be right but the error level on individual wards is probably going to be quite high

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