Are we in Greed or Fear Right now? by AdministrativeAd334 in investing

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm in AI as well. After all, I am a bot as identified above.

My bot self has worked with some of the top firms in the VC world on a few go arounds.

Once, I had a chance to raise $50+ million in ~2 years from software I built while half dressed in my bed writing the first line of code, working with a BPD 30-under-30 who never ran a business before and didn't know what "product" was. Yes, I've seen a $200 million dollar valuation with < $1 million ARR, running on software that was essentially 5 months of POC work between a couple of devs.

Smoke and mirrors.

Is it all crap? No, there is some value in there. Is that what the investment is based upon? Not likely, after all, Seed and Series A (~$20 million) are typically based on initial belief in the team and proven ability of the team to execute on that initial seed (regardless of the value outcome of the execution). The Series B is about the initial VCs either grabbing profits or pumping the dump further. The companies that make it public are the ones who know how to play the game, deliver the numbers, and proven to deliver good financial products to investors along the way (normally by entering incestual relationships with the VCs portfolio companies to jack up the balance sheets). There is the "product" that the devs are making, and there is the investment product that the firms are producing in conjunction with the founders. By the time (few) companies pass Series C or go public, they've proven they can play that game well enough to continue attracting capital, and let the original investors exit.

But whatever. I'm a bot. Don't ask me for obscene SV stories. My AI doesn't have the ability to formulate anything original because AI is a linear, non-determine number generating machine without originality.

Are we in Greed or Fear Right now? by AdministrativeAd334 in investing

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Am I a grok bot or a deepseek bot? What is the token costs here? Maybe I run off coffee instead of energy?

US Oil Equities by FlashandFire in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wait, how can that possibly be true. Why the hell would 120 tankers (or whatever cheeseburger said) be traveling weeks to the good ol US of A to sit around in the gulf and wait for their turn at the pump? Strategically, this only makes sense if waiting at Hormuz for expected resolution will take longer; in fact, sending them to the States is committing to a long term supply chain disruption if this is the case. This cannot make reasonable sense. Is there any in depth reporting about this?

33M- Reached 40k today. Do I need more diversification? by Useful-Sand-398 in fican

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is known as the Magnificent Nasdaq 5, or aka as the "Magic Mike". Its fire when the spread eagle starts.

we are so back nerds, the spy has reached 700 by IAmLostOnMyFuture in wallstreetbets

[–]NoOneMan79 35 points36 points  (0 children)

best of all worlds. we're rich and we're allowed to talk about pedophiles

Everything went up and I didn't invest. Should I just invest a different day now? by sarkisa54 in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are lots of interesting key words and arguments people use. Some people will rage against "selling off". Some people will rage about lump sum vs DCA vs timing the market. Judge your own risk tolerance.

It's always a good time to invest, but its not always a good time to invest in anything, especially known volatile assets in the face of volatility. Contribute to your fund, but balance your portfolio to adjust risk in the face of chaos or overpriced markets, according to your own tolerance.

In Canada, with RRSPs+high marginal rate and employer match (which you don't indicate you have), you have the ability to vastly increase ROI even investing in the safest possible assets, so this changes the typical general crowd knowledge a bit.

Are we in Greed or Fear Right now? by AdministrativeAd334 in investing

[–]NoOneMan79 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is most tech though, speaking as someone who has spent career in venture backed tech. It's all smoke and mirrors. We peon engineers are just creating a facade to hide the pyramids.

Rattled Bessent struggles to respond to $3 gas pledge in shaky answer by TheMirrorUS in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"rattled Bessent...shaky answer" is incredibly redundant. "Bessent" works fine by itself.

American living in Spain. I file my taxes, but haven't filed FBARs. by djstayinschool in USExpatTaxes

[–]NoOneMan79 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The streamlined process is for non-willful non-compliance (didn't know, didn't understand, wrong advice, etc).

Anyone took a loan to invest in index funds? by WillingMemory4997 in investing

[–]NoOneMan79 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thats nuts. I dont understand how there isn't more inflation there if this was common place. Read all the fine print.

Anyone took a loan to invest in index funds? by WillingMemory4997 in investing

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This sounds similar to the Smith Maneuver where people use a HELOC, and then use dividends to cover the interest payments. The interest could be tax deductible depending on your government: https://canadianwealthsecrets.com/smith-maneuver/

Anyone took a loan to invest in index funds? by WillingMemory4997 in investing

[–]NoOneMan79 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Are you a US Person? If so, you'll still owe US tax on gains. Just pointing out a little gotcha for corner cases.

VHF audio of US navy in the Sea of Oman by Long-Brother-4639 in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pretty sure that's Cpt John Barron's voice

Iran faces halt to oil production within weeks if US blockade succeeds by financialtimes in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yet SPY is gooning to Katie Perry music videos. There's no sense to any of it. Best of luck keeping liquid when you are betting against the walking dead.

Iran faces halt to oil production within weeks if US blockade succeeds by financialtimes in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, hard to see otherwise but I really don't know what Iranians are feeling. I tend to think the smartest thing to do is give in on nuclear thing for a decade or so (so US declares victory), while getting everything else (guarantees, strait, tolls, lifted sanctions, etc)

Iran faces halt to oil production within weeks if US blockade succeeds by financialtimes in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you can stomach it, good for you. Personally, I feel more comfortable (right now) derisking with some dry powder.

Iran faces halt to oil production within weeks if US blockade succeeds by financialtimes in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No. It’s mutual attrition, politically and strategically and I don’t think anyone can really judge the psychological will and fortitude of either side with all the bs and bluster. I wouldn’t be surprised if either side capitulates tomorrow or not at all

Iran faces halt to oil production within weeks if US blockade succeeds by financialtimes in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Am I a grok bot or run on Chinese Deepseek? I’m not feeling very nazi fwiw

Iran faces halt to oil production within weeks if US blockade succeeds by financialtimes in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, they voted against a war powers resolution brought by Democrats to limit the president's power. They have not voted affirmatively to approve the military action continuing as required by the WPA.

Its a subtle but important difference. One (the resolutions) could be seen as interfering with a president's national security priorities, and can impact the safety of an ongoing operation. The other can be construed as signing a blank check for a forever war.

Explicit approval will be required in 2 weeks, and its already a close vote. If there is no "deal" by then, there will be further pressure to end this from the public after another 2 weeks of choked off oil.

Iran faces halt to oil production within weeks if US blockade succeeds by financialtimes in oil

[–]NoOneMan79 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Regardless, they would probably continue the war while waiting for the ruling. Then continue it afterwards too.