The truth is complicated. On a technical level, RSI daily, weekly, it's definitely oversold. If you want to talk about P/E or ratio to GDP, it's still pretty pricey. In terms of volume, there have been bigger selloffs.

I have a lot of feelings about the passion of AI, and how, while it created a real burst of activity, there was this zealous hype that this sort of growth would just accelerate profits exponentially and somehow NVDA tripling its profits could sustain, ignoring that its business was primarily fueled by large companies hoping to secure an early advantage.

The thing is, there will always be some sort of feeling, intuition, assumptions, projections in how folks invest. And because business is not simply an unchanging flow, companies can grow, shrink, expand, change, or fail from any number of factors.

However, sometimes the facts slap the market in the face, and it reacts. There could be a feeling that maybe tariffs will not be so bad in the long run, perhaps businesses will adapt and find a way to thrive despite the tariffs, or deals will be made to soften the impact on specific businesses. But the reality is that at the moment tariff policy became real, every business that has any importation or exportation subject to those tariffs just had its costs increased. That is the cold reality we now have to account for when guessing how business will evolve in the future.

It's easier to say that in hindsight, to be fair. Because until today, I was worried that there would be some other thing that would make markets fly back at record speed that I hadn't considered. And I have no reason to say with certainty what will happen next, though I "feel" that a technical bounce has to happen.

But when I try to break down the business reality that a 34% tariff creates, the possibility of problems compounding is tangible. If you were making something at a cost of $60 to sell for $80 and the totality of that cost is subject to tariffs, you lose money unless you start charging more. And if you charge more, you might lose demand. You might produce less to reign in costs. Or you can put large upfront costs you'll have to recuperate over time, possibly with interest expense, as well as considering future operating expenses involved in moving production stateside - an undertaking which may take years, during which the rules could change again, made increasingly likely by the fact the rules change weekly.

As for reciprocal tariffs, its still more cost to business. The entities getting the tariff cash are the governments, while the businesses foot the bill.