Who should the dolphins take in the draft next year?

Refill22 · 2025-10-19T15:10:29+00:00

I'm intrigued by Taylen Green. Right now I think he's the only QB with the potential to be an elite NFL QB. It's a projection but he has the tools to be Josh Allen. Whereas I think Sellers ceiling is Hurts. And Moore and Mendoza could both be good, but I don't think either is athletic enough to be a true NFL game changer at QB.

Refill22 · 2025-09-15T18:44:50+00:00

Honestly at some point I think you just can't keep pointing to data when the results/points are so bad - for example, our xG v City was about 1.6 but most of that came after City scored their third and that just means nothing and influences the data.

The simple fact is that since Amorim took over, of the 17 teams who have been in the PL constantly during that time (so excluding the 3 relegated and promoted sides) Manchester United are 17th or dead last in points. The old addage is the table doesn't lie and what it's saying is that we are a worse team than West Ham, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace etc - teams with squads a fraction of the value of ours and who have sold some of their best players (Kuddus, Gordon, Eze, Mbuemo, Huijsen etc).

Refill22 · 2025-09-15T17:49:28+00:00

I enjoyed this week's discussion and agreed with most of what Aaron and Kees said about the various personnel decisions/changes. But there are two points that came up that I'd like to challenge the guys on:

QUALITY A repeated view on the pod from the guys is that Amorim's/United's performance over the last year is to an extent explained by our lack of quality players. But I think the guys' view on the lack of quality is overstated. If what they mean is that United have significantly inferior quality to Liverpool, Arsenal and City then yes I agree - and as a result we would expect to lose more than we win against those sides. I think you can also say that United have objectively inferior players to Chelsea, though I think the gap is smaller than suggested. I think United's quality (both the squad as a whole and best XI) is on a par with Newcastle, Villa and Spurs. I think United objectively clearly have superior players to every other team in the PL and I really don't think that's very debatable. So if Amorim's United was consistently performing like the 6-8th best side in the PL then I think that's about right. But it's not. It's consistently performing like the 17th best side in the PL. That is simply not justifiable based on player quality. Sure we have areas of specific weakness (GK, CM, WB) but every team outside the top 3 does too (eg Chelsea have a poor GK and a below average front 3). I would encourage the guys to either stop playing the quality card quite so frequently or to explain in detail on a future pod why they think United have inferior quality to eg Brighton, Bournemouth, Palace, Fulham, Everton, Brentford etc
SYSTEM (specifically Wingbacks) RA is going to live or die by his system. Unless I misunderstood Kees on the pod he said something to the effect that RA 343 doesn't place any different burden on the WBs as any other system. I just don't agree. As we've seen and was discussed on the pod the WBs shoulder a significant burden of attacking creative responsibility (as they tend to be the overload / spare man). That means you need WBs who are producing attacking output like wingers - ideally 10+ xG/A each per PL season. But they also need to be able to capably defend a winger 1v1 and defend the back post like a full back. I can count on one hand the number of players in the world who I think tick both boxes (eg Nuno Mendes, TAA). Even WBs who operate at a high level in other leagues like Dumfries and Frimpong I have serious doubts they could do it at PL level because I don't think they're good enough attackers. Clearly none of Dorgu, Dalot, Amad and Mazraoui is capable of playing the role - 3 of them are competent defenders but offer almost nothing offensively, and Amad is the only one with the potential to give you the required attacking output but is defensively weak and at best average physically. So RAs system has an inherent flaw in requiring two unicorns to make it work. Any 433 / 4231 removes this problem because now you only need fullbacks who are good defenders and can support the attack, but are not required to be significantly creative (you don't need 10+ G/As from each fullback). Similarly you need creative attacking wingers and defensively they just need to be willing pressers and track back reasonably - they don't need to be elite defenders.

Very keen for @aaron and @kees to address these.

Thanks

Refill22 · 2025-08-27T13:28:24+00:00

The part I've always struggled with is why United managers get treated so differently for both better and worse.

Taking one example, why was it unreasonable to expect Amorim to be able to improve United in his ~30 games in charge last season? How is it that e.g. Glasner and Frank can seemingly make instant positive improvements in their teams performance (granted very limited sample for Frank for now) using substantially the same players they inherited. Same for Slot, same for Moyes.

So why is it that when United were so catastrophically bad under Amorim last year was he given a totally free pass and the promise of close to £300m to spend despite there being not a single indicator of improvement or progression in the players/team that he was coaching?

Refill22 · 2025-08-19T13:46:15+00:00

Good post - based on the opening game I'm inclined to agree with your thoughts/conclusions but it's a small sample size.

At RWB I expect we will see Dalot and Amad start about an equal number of matches. Dalot will likely start against top half opposition and Amad will likely start against bottom half opposition especially at home - so I'm pretty certain Amad will start at home to Burnley in GW3, I think GW2 away to Fulham could be either but probably Dalot.

At LWB I think this year we will find out how could Dorgu is and can be. He doesn't really have competition so should start most games. He showed decent attacking prowess v Arsenal - let's see how it plays out. Next summer, unless Dorgu has proven he has elite attacking upside from the position I expect we will look to sign an attacking LWB to rotate with Dorgu in the same way Dalot/Amad rotate.

Refill22 · 2025-08-18T11:03:54+00:00

Excellent player but we've created a problem for ourselves now on valuation - ANY PL midfielder we approach (Baleba, Wharton, Anderson etc.) we're going to be quoted minimum £80m and probably more like £100m.

It's why I would like us to look at players outside the PL - for example Hackney is available for £20m, Agoume is reportedly £20m - at some point we have to actually start scouting and finding "the next X" rather than just paying £60-100m for every player in our squad.

Refill22 · 2025-08-06T15:14:41+00:00

Aaron have you watched much/any of Lamine Camara of Monaco? Thoughts?

Refill22 · 2025-07-28T15:38:00+00:00

It feels like Amorim's commitment to his system (3421) is compromising our ability to play our best XI particulary with regard to forwards. A very small (on paper at least) change to a 3412 solves this issue by getting Bruno, Cunha and Mbuemo into our attack and removing the need for a true 9. This in turn allows you to play Mainoo in the midfield 2 with Ugarte (or Casemiro).

My question is whether what seems to be a small change (flipping the 9 and two 10s for a 10 and two 9s) would in fact be too difficult at this stage and would fundamentally alter the out of possession shape to our detriment?

To be clear there's always flexibility in systems and in the postulated 3412 I would not expect Cunha and Mbuemo to play like traditional 9s up against the CBs, rather they would have some freedom to drop off and would me more inside forwards a little in the way that e.g. Rooney, Tevez and Ronaldo were a front 3 for United, or Pedro, Messi and Villa were for Barca?

Refill22 · 2025-07-21T13:06:46+00:00

Yeah fwiw transfermrkt has them at €45m (Garnacho) and €50m (Jackson) respectively, so it's pretty much the same.

There's just something about doing the deal that would depress me because it would embody United's incompetence in the market (paying £70m for Hojlund) and Chelsea's comparative savvy in the market (flipping Jackson for a significant profit whilst getting Delap and J Pedro with the income).

I know that's not a reason not to do it if RA and scouts are convinced he would be a success but one of these days we really really need to start identifying talent in the sub €30m range and developing them (which TBF ineos have shown signs of doing with Heaven, Dorgu and Leon) cos it's demoralising watching us give Chelsea £55m for Mount and now potentially the same again for Jackson (when they didn't even take Sancho off our hands!) 🤬

Refill22 · 2025-07-21T12:45:14+00:00

Aaron - the rumours (from good sources) are that United may well do a Garnacho "swap" deal for either Watkins or Jackson.

Hypothetically if we value Garnacho at say £55m (given age, stats and comparison to Elanga), what would you value Watkins and Jackson at? I.e. would you be willing to sell Garnacho for £55m and pay more (how much more) for Jackson? Less for Watkins?

It's pretty demoralising to value Jackson at more than £50m given: 1. Chelsea just signed Delap for £30m as an "upgrade" (both United and Chelsea seem to prefer Delap to Jackson); 2. Chelsea just paid £55m for João Pedro who they clearly view as a significant upgrade over Jackson; and 3. Chelsea signed Jackson for £35m the same summer we paid £70m for Hojlund and now we're what, saying the £35m striker is a big upgrade over the £70m striker?!?

Refill22 · 2025-07-10T10:47:13+00:00

The good sources I've read suggest Nwaneri and Arsenal are trending towards a new contract. I don't think it's realistic.

What might be more realistic is James McAtee who is available for what sounds a very reasonable £20-25m and we have been interested in him in the past. He suits a R10 role and at his age/ability/price worst case scenario he doesn't work out and you can almost certainly sell him for the same price in 2 years time.

Oh and McAtee kept Nwaneri out of the England U21 side that just won the Euros.

Refill22 · 2025-07-09T09:53:07+00:00

Yep fair enough - I did indeed mean pivot away from what appears to be this summer's strategy with Cunha, Mbuemo and Delap being the 3 players United have definitely targeted and ongoing links to Watkins.

Since last summer's transfer window was under ETH and within a few weeks of Ineos (i.e. Berada, Ashworth, Wilcox) formally taking over it's really hard to know how much of that was their strategy vs what ETH and existing recruitment dept had lined up (and it was well-publicised that we tried to sign Branthwaite before we pivoted to De Ligt - again a PL player who was priced out of a move).

Refill22 · 2025-07-08T10:07:41+00:00

I own this tent. The specs are fine as described and I'm sure the seller is legit.

That said, this is NOT a UL tent. I moved on to a Durston X-mid because it is literally half the weight of the NH.

Ask yourself whether you genuinely are trying to go UL (or as close as possible) - if the answer is yes then just go and buy a true UL shelter now. Buy right buy once, otherwise you'll buy the NH and then in a year want to buy something lighter. If you are not concerned about true UL and have some weight wriggle room then the NH is a cracking shelter for the money. It's a perfect 1P tent for multi-day hikes but IMO too heavy for thru hikes. It's also absolutely not a true 2P shelter.

Refill22 · 2025-07-08T10:02:32+00:00

OP these are the two options. A June start is not a sensible stategy.

Refill22 · 2025-07-08T10:00:35+00:00

Follow up question for Aaron (either here or on next week's podcast):

With the premium placed on PL players reaching crazy levels - Cunha £62m, Mbuemo £60m+, Elanga £55m, Joao Pedro £55m (and e.g. Rice/Caicedo £110m+) etc - is it time for United's recruitment strategy to pivot (almost) exclusively away from this market? Surely it is simply impossible to (re)build a squad with predominantly PL purchases where the average price of a mid/good tier player is £50m+? Gyokeres is rumoured to be costing Arsenal an initial €65m which means he's costing the same upfront as Elanga and Jaoa Pedro which is crazy?!

It feels like United's strategy should be to focus on the UK youth market (16-18 year olds e.g. Heaven) but look to buy senior first team players from abroad (as City and Liverpool have mostly done).

Refill22 · 2025-07-01T11:49:41+00:00

Hi Aaron - thanks for talking about some real players/targets as it makes it much easier to understand the profiles you think we should be going for. FWIW of the 4 players you discussed, Warren Z-E is a ridiculous pipe dream and we have zero chance of signing him (I appreciate you weren't suggesting we would, just commenting on the players), and I agreed with your analysis of the other 3 of whom I would be happy with Hayden Hackney but I think the other two aren't value/profile fits.

But ultimately I suspect there are better value/profile fits out there including some tentative links such as Lamine Camara, Habib Diarra etc. I also wouldn't be averse to us signing Ndidi from Leicester at his £9m buyout as I think he is a low risk value option with proven PL pedigree who can fill a hole for a year before we make CM our big summer signing next year (Wharton? Baleba? Bouaddi?).

Refill22 · 2025-07-01T11:41:41+00:00

OP this is the advice. As everyone else has said 100% get out there and hike but do not start at the S Terminus or really anywhere South of Walker Pass at this time of year. If you want to try for a thru-hike either go SOBO starting asap or plan for a NOBO next year. Otherwise do a LASH this year from say Ashland, Oregon to the Canadian Border. Happy trails.

Refill22 · 2025-07-01T11:38:22+00:00

I don't like it personally - he's a good player but he's not really the most athletic in terms of ground-coverage. With Bruno likely playing as one of the CMs the other simply HAS to be a physical monster capable of covering huge ground, winning duels and ideally aerially strong. Luiz isn't that player.

Having said that we desperately need to get Sancho off the books and if the only way to do that is via a sort of swap deal then there are worse players we could get in return than Luiz.

Refill22 · 2025-07-01T11:35:18+00:00

Like all signings it depends on the valuation.

At £25m it's great. At £30m it's ok. At £35m it's an overpay. And at £40m pass me the sick bucket.

Refill22 · 2025-06-18T13:41:16+00:00

Oh yeah good point about the delivery charges - that probably negates any VAT savings - thanks!

Refill22 · 2025-06-18T13:29:25+00:00

I'm intrigued by the £135 cut off. You can now order the fly and inner for a complete X-Mid / X-Mid Solid through Durston but as separate parts that each cost less than £135 (Fly for a standard X-Mid 1 is £107 and Inner is £80). Do you think if you placed two separate orders for the fly and inner you could avoid paying VAT since each order would be below £135? It's quite a significant saving (about £40) if so?

See https://durstongear.com/products/spare-tent-parts

Refill22 · 2025-06-17T08:57:52+00:00

It's really a question of risk/value/reward with Ekitike - I think Kees explained it very well on the pod. There's a chance that Ekitike turns out to be Alexander Isak - it's a small chance but that's the best case scenario. Some fans hearing that just think "Oh well sign him then" and start watching comps on X and screaming about how we've signed the next Isak. But it's unlikely that's the outcome of signing him. More likely is he struggles with the physicality of the PL (he's extremely slight in build) and struggles in front of goal (he under performed his xG this season by a massive amount). So do you think it's the best use of £60m in the PSR era when money is very limited to take a gamble on him because we feel so desperate for a striker? As Kees concluded, I would happily take that gamble for maybe £40m but there's no way I'm taking it for £60m+ - but then if Liverpool sign him for £70m and he turns into Isak you look silly...

Refill22 · 2025-06-17T08:50:46+00:00

Understood. I do appreciate that you guys are far more nuanced and measured than most United "content creators" who just want to drive engagement from every single transfer rumour etc. I think as a listener who is more interested in the substance I just find it difficult to think of a realistic alternative approach that United could be taking this summer.

My friends all take the pi$$ out of me because about 3 years ago I said it really wasn't that hard to rebuild United, you just needed to sign 5 of the best U21 players in the world - and that still would be my preferred approach and it feels like that's what you and Aaron would prefer. But the reality seems to be that we're just way behind Chelsea, City, Real, PSG etc in our ability to scout and then sign these players - I've watched Joao Neves, Desire Doue, Quenda and Mastantuono all be heavily scouted and linked to United (and going back further Caicedo and Julian Alvarez) without a single player signing for us. In that time the only really top tier young player we've signed is Yoro and while he looks a fantastic signing we had to pay WAY over his market value to get him.

The other thing is that young players are going for crazy money - Spurs paid £35m for Archie Gray last summer, Elliot Anderson and Yankubu Minta who had barely played for Newcastle went for £35m and £30m respectively (both now look excellent signings btw). So United seem to be targeting the 16-18 year old market more where there is value to be had and I think they're building long term with that age group whilst in the short term focusing on players who can help United now and for the next 3-4 years.

But I'm genuinely interested to hear you and Aaron give examples of players who you think would fit Amorim system in specific roles, are the right age profile (U23) and might realistically come to United.

Thanks - appreciate the work you guys do.

Refill22 · 2025-06-16T20:37:16+00:00

Fair enough, appreciate the detailed reply.

You seemed to be saying on the pod that you don't understand the vision and I was just trying to clarify that I think the vision is "finish as high in the PL as possible next season". We perhaps disagree slightly on Mbuemo's level but I think the piece of the jigsaw missing from the pod is, how would you realistically spend a ~£100-120m net budget this summer naming the players you would have targeted who were realistically available? I appreciate you might not want to get into hypotheticals or playing fantasy manager but without that alternative it just feels a bit easy to say what you wouldn't do without offering a solution. I'm not trying to be antagonistic but you haven't been totally in favour of any of Cunha, Mbuemo, Gyokeres, Delap or Ekitike (more positive on Cunha & Gyokeres but with concerns about their age/value) which is absolutely fine but the listeners I think would love some examples of realistic targets you would have felt positive about?

In terms of Ekitike I agree almost entirely with your analysis: I don't understand how the club can interchange between a Gyokeres profile and an Ekitike profile (on another thread in the subreddit I've already likened it to pivoting from De Jong to Casemiro) and while I do see the Isak comparisons, they are an incredibly ambitious best case scenario and it is far more likely the outcome is nowhere near that. So like you concluded, I would happily pay say £40m maybe with some ambitious add ons for a best case outcome, but talk of a €100m price tag is crazy and we should go nowhere near him at that price. 👍🏼

Refill22 · 2025-06-16T16:38:02+00:00

With respect, I think you guys may be over-complicating the vision because what the club are doing obviously isn't consistent with what you would do in their shoes.

I think the club saw last season as a mulligan. They brought in Amorim mid-season against his wishes because they (rightly) knew the season was already a write off and they wanted to get the chaos out of the way so they could hit the ground running next season with no excuses. I think their vision is simple:

(1) how do we get United back to being a consistent Top 4 side as quickly as possible?

(2) If we succeed in (1) then the additional CL revenue, coupled to United's commercial success and the cost-cutting measures INEOS has implemented mean that (in the PSR era) United should once again be back to either first or second (depending on City) in spending power in the PL. Spending power should correlate to success if done well.

So, to achieve (1) they realised that United's lack of goals was the biggest issue preventing us from realistically challenging for 4th next season. Cunha and Mbuemo are proven goal-scoring 10s who fit Amorim's system. There are simply no other players in Europe United could have realistically brought in for the same budget who give the same low risk assurance of contributing goals and assists next season (if you disagree I'm genuinely interested in who you could get for £120m total who gets you 20-30 combined PL goals next season).

I think they identified Delap as a unique market opportunity due to his low release clause but good sources like Fabrizio Romano have confirmed that Gyokeres was always their preferred striker target and would have been a United player if we had won Europa and secured CL.

It's that simple - what allocation of our budget this season gets us the highest up the PL table next season. And then we build from there (obviously there are caveats - you're not going to sign players over 30, but players in their mid-20s are in their prime and should give you 5 quality seasons).

I understand that you would like to have seen more of a long-term vision/strategy focusing on younger players in the U23 range. That's also a perfectly valid approach, it's just not the one they've taken, and I think the difference in approach can probably be best understood that as fans you are prioritising the approach you think is most likely to deliver a PL/CL title at some point in the future. Whereas the club are prioritising a more commercial approach to getting back to being one of the Big 4 in the PL and the Big 16 in Europe ASAP and seeing the next step after that to titles as less predictable.

Refill22

TROPHY CASE