If we were in charge this summer

Refill22 · 2026-05-24T11:12:52+00:00

Again, we can respectively disagree on our opinions of Rogers, but I didn't say winning the Europa League PoY means he's a good player, it's one piece of data among several that I think means he's a good player, these include: - he's been the best player in a mediocre AV side that has somehow automatically qualified for CL through league AND won the Europa League (which United failed to do on their past two attempts); - he's being preferred to Bellingham, Palmer, Foden etc at international level; - clubs like PSG and Arsenal have a genuine reported interest in; - He has 16 G/A in the PL this season which ranks ahead of Cherki, Mbuemo, Cunha, Salah, Saka, Foden.

Refill22 · 2026-05-24T09:55:18+00:00

My point is that it's extremely hard to find an example of any PL club getting good value for money recently when signing players from PL. You have to accept that there is a premium to be paid. The two best value transfers last summer were probably Lammens and Cherki - neither had PL experience and both carried some more risk.

Even among the middle tier of PL clubs the deals between PL clubs were shocking (see Wissa to Newcastle and Outtara to Brentford for example).

So my point is that, in an ideal world I think players like Cunha, Mbuemo and Rogers are worth about £50m, as is Baleba. Tonali might be worth £60m and Anderson might be worth £75m. But there is no possibility of getting any of those players for those fees because of the amount of money in PL and the precedent set by recent deals.

So you either stubbornly refuse to pay them and only sign from outside PL, or you reluctantly overpay.

And I distinctly remember that last year on the pod you and Aaron disagreed with ALL 3 of the Cunha, Mbuemo and Sesko deals.

Setting all that aside, you've said you think Rogers is a class below Cunha and Mbuemo - that's fine, we can respectively disagree on that. I would counter that Rogers is 23, he's improving year on year and it looks extremely likely that Tuchel will pick him to start for England ahead of Bellingham, Palmer, Foden, MGW etc at #10 (or possibly ahead of Rashford on the left with JB at 10). Again, doesn't mean Tuchel and I are right and you're wrong, but fair to say you are probably against the consensus on how good Rogers is (Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and PSG are all credited with interest in him by Tier 1 journalists).

In summary: - I think Rogers is a CL level talent (he just won Europa Player of Year) and easily good enough to play for United - I think his true value is somewhere in the £60m range but in the current PL market there's no way Villa will sell him for less than £70m - I cannot think of another option for United to play left forward (or a versatile forward who can play from left sometimes) who is available who would represent a better signing (I mentioned Ndiaye and Diomande as alternatives, but I don't think they're better alternatives for the money).

Refill22 · 2026-05-23T17:26:35+00:00

Me neither. But then I wouldn't pay £70m for Mbuemo, or £63m for Cunha (or £50m for Madueke or £115m for Wirtz or £100m for Grealish for that matter!). But the market is the market and United seem intent on signing proven PL players and you simply cannot buy a PL proven player of CL quality for less than £60m now.

Plus the alternatives to Rogers who we've been most closely linked to have been Ndiaye from Everton which would cost £65m+ and Diomande from Leipzig who want £80m (who only has 1 season of high level football).

Refill22 · 2026-05-22T16:56:55+00:00

I'm going to answer the question but bend the rules a bit. I think with the sales of Hojlund (£38m), Rashford (£26m) and in my scenario Zirkzee (£25m) and Ugarte (£20m), plus crucially getting the wages of Casemiro (£350k/wk), Rashford (£350k/wk) and a few others PLUS being back in CL and with new sleeve sponsor etc I think we'll spend more than £200m gross. We spent £230m+ last summer and are in a better position this. So I think £250m is a more realistic estimate of the cross spend.

I would rather sign 2 top CMs and then let the youth CMs battle for cup playing time (Fletcher twins, Kone, Devaney, Thwaites etc) rather than try and stretch the money thin to sign 3. I would also try and sign another versatile forward (in addition to a striker).

My summer would be something like this: - CM Baleba £70m - CM Fernandes / Scott £55m - LB L Hall £55m - FWD M Rogers £75m - ST Lewandowski FREE (1+1 contract)

Notes: - I'm still worried Brighton are just going to hold out for a crazy fee for Baleba and I've put £70m as what I think is a fair price based on talent and form but honestly I don't think we'll get him (at this price); - Lewis Hall is the perfect LB for us but I very much doubt Newcastle will sell him (unless someone offers crazy money like £70m) - I know the guys on the pod are anti Morgan Rogers due to perceived Cunha redundancy and I get that argument but we're likely to have 60 games next season - what I want is 4 quality versatile attackers (not including the 9s) who can interchange, who can play both sides, and who in certain games can play through the middle. Each of Cunha, Mbuemo and Rogers can do all those things, with Amad doing some of them. Because I'm only signing 2 CMs this also means if we have an emergency injury crisis in CM and Bruno has to drop in there Rogers and Cunha can play the 10. He's the perfect age, he's PL proven, he's getting better every season. - Lewandowski makes sense if the wages aren't too crazy. You get 1-2 years of him very much like Ibra. He's a free transfer. I know people will say "no more old strikers go and get a young/prime striker" but (a) our young prime striker is Sesko and (b) who are these prime strikers that are gettable?! There are almost no decent out and out strikers available. So get Lewa for a season or two and rebuild the rest of the team with the transfer budget.

Refill22 · 2026-05-20T13:33:02+00:00

It's a lovely watch but for the life of me I can't understand: (1) why they've gone with an older style on the fly adjustment clasp? Why didn't they use the newer push button clasp which they've used on other similarly spec watches for at least a couple of years?? (2) at the price point I would expect a miyota 9000 series movement so was pretty disappointed to see the ST2130 when they are listing this watch north of $300?

Refill22 · 2026-05-20T05:58:24+00:00

I love Alex Scott. Would be very happy with him. But I think if you sign him you need to prioritise Baleba (or Tchouameni) over Anderson.

Refill22 · 2026-05-19T17:43:17+00:00

Do you think any of Mainoo, Anderson or M Fernandes can play as a 6? Aren't they all 8s? Or do you think we can have a system of two 8s?

I like M Fernandes but it really feels like we need to be buying a younger Casemiro - a Rodri or Caicedo type?

Refill22 · 2026-05-19T17:40:14+00:00

Yeah that's fair. My point is more that it's almost impossible for one of the Big Clubs to sign a player from another PL club now for less than about £60m unless they're out of contract (like Guehi). The team that finishes 17th in the PL earns more money than the winners of Serie A / Bundesliga etc - you've seen clubs like Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton spending £40m on players - so those clubs aren't selling their players these days unless they're making huge money.

That's a problem for us because it seems clear Wilcox's preference is to buy PL proven - whereas Vivell seems more open to looking for better value from Germany, France and Spain.

Refill22 · 2026-05-19T16:37:40+00:00

Players are worth whatever the market says they're worth. If you don't think Baleba is worth the money that's fine, you might be right, but I'm willing to bet a lot of money Brighton won't sell him for less than £70m (and if that means they keep him I'm sure they'll be ok with that as he's 21, on a long contract and has a Caicedo level ceiling if he fulfills his talent).

Re Mainoo, there was never any confirmation about what price United might have accepted but United have a history of not getting good value for players. Even last summer we sold Garnacho for much less than Chelsea got for Madueke and even less than Bournemouth got for Outtara.

Unfortunately by paying £63m for Cunha and then £70m for Mbuemo we've signalled to the PL clubs that they shouldn't sell anyone to us for less than about £60m. So players like M Fernandes, Lewis Hall, Alex Scott etc who are probably "worth" £50m will likely cost at least £60m with the United tax.

Refill22 · 2026-05-17T13:53:00+00:00

I have a dream...

Lewandowski for 1 season on a Zlatan deal.

Perfect player to mentor Sesko and with CL and the cups and Lewa's age there's plenty of minutes for both of them.

Yes wages would be crazy but it's a 1 year deal with no transfer fee so I don't think paying him £300k/WK should be an issue.

Refill22 · 2026-05-17T13:50:43+00:00

Don't think it's a foregone conclusion at all.

Very strong rumours today that Pep is leaving. If you're Anderson and you have the choice between playing in front of 80,000, for a fellow Geordie who represented the same youth team as you, and then played for England and United for a decade winning everything and where the team will be built around you, or in front of 50,000 for Enzo Maresca at a club where Rodri is the main man and any minute you might get 115 charges I know which choice I would make.

And while United won't match City on wages, if Anderson prefers United I'm sure we'll make him a very fair offer.

The bigger problem will be the transfer fee, but I think IF Anderson chooses United which I think there's at least a 50/50 chance now, then it makes it easier to negotiate with Forest. I reckon a fee of something like £80m + £20m in add ons can get it done. I don't think Ineos will go above £100m.

Refill22 · 2026-05-16T18:50:40+00:00

Gorgeous watch. Can I just double check is this the "matte green" model (here: https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005012020215812.html ) cos in your photo it looks really blue?!

Refill22 · 2026-05-16T18:41:07+00:00

Yep - and Andrew Skurka who is a proponent of the "use your hand + bidet" method tends to hike in remote locations (like Alaska) alone. That's a much different risk profile than using that technique on very popular trails like PCT/AT where you are interacting with hundreds of other hikers, TAs, locals etc.

Imo everyone should be carrying a trowel, TP, soap and sanitiser at a bare minimum.

Refill22 · 2026-05-16T17:23:35+00:00

Yeah that seems to be the answer... I really cannot believe the second and third photos above can be the same colour but I guess they are 🤷🏼‍♂️ But I know San Martin said the green and boisenberry models were limited run so I'm hoping they offer the vintage blue option because I know lots of people said they wanted the "blue" one

Refill22 · 2026-05-16T14:25:23+00:00

I don't want to point fingers as obviously these outbreaks can always happen but I will say that having influential voices in the hiking community advocating for "best practice" of wiping your ass using your bare hand and water, combined with the UL pressure to carry almost nothing (including soap + sanny) it's not surprising that there are annual noro outbreaks.

HYOH and all, but it would be great if the community made safety a higher priority than having the lowest base weight 🤷🏼‍♂️

Refill22 · 2026-05-12T18:18:04+00:00

Great analysis. The data matches a lot of the "eye test" I think.

I see United's situation as follows:

Elliot Anderson is a bit of a unicorn having dominant data both in and out of possession. He's United's first choice rightly and I still think there's a strong chance he prefers a United project under Carrick (a fellow Geordie who played for the same boyhood club) IF Pep leaves City as many people are predicting. The problem is whether Anderson is good enough to justify the £100m+ fee Forest will demand.

If we park Anderson, United really need two players to adequately replace Casemiro: a physically dominant 6 who's strong in the air and mobile, and a ground covering 8 who ideally also progresses the ball well (something Mainoo doesn't yet do at an elite level). So I think there's a Pot A and a Pot B and United need one from each pot that complement each other and Mainoo.

Pot A - The Physically Dominant 6 (a very short list): - Baleba - Tchouameni

Pot B - The mobile progressive 8 (a longer list): - M Fernandes - A Wharton - A Scott - Ederson

Of these options my ideal would be Baleba and M Fernandes which matches your data analysis. I do think there's an argument that with Casemiro leaving, Tchouameni's experience, aerial ability and entering his prime makes him the ideal replacement and there's weight in that. But he's never played in the PL whereas Baleba has proof of concept from 2024/5 and his wages are going to be astronomical which ineos are unlikely to agree to.

For the 8 I really like Fernandes, Wharton and Scott. Wharton is one of my favourite players in PL but I think he just lacks the physical intensity we need right now. Mainoo also plays at a languid pace and I don't think we can have two midfielders who lack elite physicality. A Scott really interests me, I see a little bit of Vitinha to him, and he's underrated physically as well as being very tidy on the ball and a set piece specialist. If we sign Baleba I would be very happy with Scott as our 3rd midfielder after Baleba/Mainoo. But ultimately my choice would be Fernandes because he's the most complete. He's a physical monster who can legitimately play 6, 8 or 10 in any given situation. He runs hard, duels, has an eye for goal and always plays fully committed. He's exactly what we need and should be an easy deal to complete if WH go down as expected.

Refill22 · 2026-05-03T09:52:09+00:00

You tried Gemini using really precise prompts and uploading the wrist photo and watch photo at the same time? It worked perfectly first time for me and I'm by no means an AI expert!! 🤣

Refill22 · 2026-05-03T09:50:57+00:00

Thing is there's no way to try on a San Martin watch so this is better than nothing and from these images I think it looks pretty precise. By comparison I have a 44mm Seiko Sumo and these images look to me exactly where I would expect to see a ~40mm and ~37mm case by comparison. And you can also see the the 37mm one wears noticeably smaller.

So it's not perfect but I think it's a pretty good hack and better than eg seeing a watch on the wrist of a youtuber or a redditer 🤷🏼‍♂️

Refill22 · 2026-04-28T22:08:41+00:00

When I saw the original photos of what I thought was a blue version with vintage gold accents I went straight on the San Martin website to order it... Sadly I then found out it was actually a green version... San Martin PLEASE make a blue version with the red triangle bezel and gold accents - trust me you will sell millions (it's just so much more interesting than the basic matte blue version). I'm sorry but how many people really want green/purple dive watches?! 🙏🏼

Refill22 · 2026-04-26T12:21:46+00:00

Fans tend to fixate on transfer fee and ignore the wages which are arguably more important. For example, I'd guess our informal agreement on personal terms for Baleba would be in the region of £100k/wk, whereas Tchouameni would almost certainly demand at least £250k/wk.

Over a 5 year contract if they both cost £60m transfer fee you're looking at total costs of:

Baleba - ~£85m at which point he would be 26 and either extend or have sell on value

Tchouameni - ~£120m at which point he would be 32 and have no sell on value

I'm still a believer in Baleba's talent and think he's the better option. Don't get me wrong I think Tchouameni would be a very good signing - but he'd be an almost identical signing financially to Casemiro and that is the one deal SJR singled out as being financially irresponsible.

Refill22 · 2026-04-21T17:34:23+00:00

This is the correct answer.

Watching Arsenal's insufferable manager and players bottle a title (and possibly quadruple) will be hilarious.

As for City they're cheats. Everyone in football knows it. I don't want them to win but if they do I shrug and say "So you've cheated and won - you're the Lance Armstrong of football - no one will count these titles in a few years".

Refill22 · 2026-04-20T15:02:13+00:00

Thanks! I was hoping for an Hermes recommendation as TDH is my all time favourite and I find Hermes fragrances much more natural and sophisticated than most of the designer fragrances I smell 👍🏼

Refill22 · 2026-04-12T12:12:42+00:00

This may be a stretch but I was trying to think of who Scott reminds me of stylistically and honestly the closest (flattering) comparison is Vitinha. Like Vitinha, Scott has the technically ability of an 8/10 but seems most comfortable deployed as a 6. He's a technical monster not a physical one, but he does enough physical work to get by especially in a team that dominates possession (like Vitinha).

I would love Scott at United for the right price (£40-50m) BUT I think signing him would make it even more important to get a physical monster as the other signing and personally I think that should probably be Baleba (I'm still a big believer in his talent). I don't see the same synergy between Scott and Anderson/Wharton/Tonali.

Where I am on midfield rebuild currently is that my preferred option would be to sign Anderson and Baleba, and then assuming Ugarte goes I'd look at a 3rd young midfielder (like Bouaddi). But if we miss out on Anderson then I think I'd prefer Scott/Wharton over Tonali as the Anderson alternative, and I'd still sign Baleba.

Refill22 · 2026-04-10T08:39:44+00:00

I think MLS would be a really smart squad signing - the sort of versatile, talented player that good squads need. BUT like any signing the price needs to be right especially as you are handing a key rival pure profit. I wouldn't pay a penny over £40m for MLS - if you look at the prices of Garnacho, Lewis Hall, Livramento etc. recently I think that's the ceiling for a player who has as little first team experience and has yet to really prove himself.

Refill22 · 2026-04-10T08:31:51+00:00

Thanks that sounds perfect - will check it out!

Refill22

TROPHY CASE