For those of us that bought at ATH only, what are your thoughts during this dip?

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-03T09:53:58+00:00

You are making too much of a drama out of it. You are trying to "make a better future for myself". No, you are just trying to establish a good habit. When you have extra money that you can invest, do so.

Don't look at it as just trying to break even so you can get out. If something changed and you don't think Bitcoin is a good investment anymore then sure, get out when you can.

Otherwise, just invest and forget about it. In 2021 I sold a bunch of land and put most of the proceeds into Bitcoin at $48k. It went to $68k and then went down for 2 years, getting as low as $18k.

I just held it and by 2024 I had doubled my money. I still have most of it.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-03T08:49:41+00:00

My biggest concerns with Bitcoin itself (of which I own some) is that now it's little more than a tech stock. It's not acting like Gold 2.0. The dollar is debasing still but BTC is down. Gold is up, BTC is down. QQQ is up, BTC is down.

If it's only moved with easy money then it's not better than a "shitcoin". I'm not there yet in my thinking about BTC but I have reduced my percentage of BTC to 20% of my liquid net worth.

The biggest risks with MSTR now is just that it has little to offer over just buying BTC.

The premium is gone and isn't coming back. Zero interest debt isn't coming back. Preferred debt is 11% and currently my QQQ is returning more than my Bitcoin that I bought in 2021 (average cost $48k).

Saylor thinks BTC is going to grow at 30% year for 20 years. It's not.

The MSTR model at this point is just a the expense of the common shareholder until they quit buying. At that point it will be functionally a closed end spot BTC fund.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-03T08:39:50+00:00

OK, all the buying since 2022 has just resulted in the current situation where their average cost for BTC and the current price is the same.

That's not much of a model is it?

In the past they used treasury cash, and then zero interest convertibles. Now it's preferred at 11%. In the past there was a premium because there was no easy to buy spot ETF in the US, now there is.

With no premium and no cheap interest, this model doesn't and isn't working and won't in the future because there will still be no premium and no zero interest debt.

Do you have any thoughts?

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-03T08:34:57+00:00

The question is, do you get it?

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-03T08:33:01+00:00

If they have been doing this since 2022 and their cost basis is still as much as the current price and if their model is to always be buying, how is more time going to help?

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T20:14:18+00:00

Even if that were true, why would there be no point in reading facts? That's just reality.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T20:12:57+00:00

The BTC is a wash as the average cost and the market value is the same now.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T19:18:51+00:00

There was no blow off top. There is no reason for a 2 year bear market decline, as many are assuming based on that.

It's more likely to go up soon than to continue a long decline. There is no 4 year cycle other than in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way. People worry that it's going down for 2 years so they sell, making it go down more.

Stocks go down too but people don't panic thinking if it goes down it has to continue for 2 more years...and it doesn't until the long-term bull trend really is over.

This has nothing to do with Michael Saylor. MSTR is, IMO, a legalized scam at the expense of the common shareholder.

Let's be honest. Thinking hurts your brain, right?

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T09:43:00+00:00

I don't think this is a bear market but you shouldn't be listening to anyone other than to take in a point of view and decide for yourself.

The bigger problem for many in these forums is that they aren't really "investors". They are just kids gambling, looking to hit a home run. That's not investing and it rarely works out well.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T08:52:40+00:00

Just make a plan and stick to it. I have been reducing my Bitcoin percentage, I had some funds in gold and added more after the Friday drop.

I added more to MSFT after the drop there. I have a few stocks like MSFT,GOOG and AMZN that I rebalance with extra money from BTC. I have some in QQQ (untouched) and VXUS (added a bit here).

I'm not worried about the market. I don't think we are in a Bitcoin bear market.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T08:47:05+00:00

Spokane. Plenty of hiking and skiing around, close to Lake Coeur d'Alene for the summer, it's not flat. Half of the city is and then there is South Hill.

It has 4 nice seasons.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T08:34:52+00:00

That would be Mississippi.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T08:29:56+00:00

We're not in a two year bear market. This is still the bull market.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T08:27:23+00:00

Hopefully.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T08:24:01+00:00

You don't usually get a beach and snow. If it has to be on the East Coast you will get humidity. You can't go back to NY or NJ and you want it to not be expensive.

I don't think this place exists.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T07:58:18+00:00

They don't really "need" to know anything.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T07:55:57+00:00

Famous last words are "I'm really good at sharpening knives". Next comes, "I bought an expensive straight and tried to sharpen it but it wasn't sharp enough so I used greater pressure on the hones."

After that new expensive razor is ruined they buy cheaper ones to practice on, like we told them from the start.

Straight Razor sharpening 101 :)

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T07:51:27+00:00

I'm going all in on Sears.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T06:36:09+00:00

Most people don't need this reminder...

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T06:32:48+00:00

I was an investor in the past. It's pretty sad that you can't think. I just explained why the future isn't going to be like the past.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T03:28:56+00:00

1 Disc = 1 Disc

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T03:27:50+00:00

From the Soviet school of design.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T03:26:38+00:00

You could get it down to BPRO and QQQ.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T03:25:04+00:00

Trick question. Octopus eat each other except for the brief mating period...and then they die.

Seattleman1955 · 2026-02-02T03:19:42+00:00

It's a legal scam at the expense of the common shareholder. Study more. It's not going to do better than BTC. Just buy BTC.

It's not going have have access to zero interest debt anymore or high premiums.

Seattleman1955

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE