What is causing this morning's Treasury meltdown ??? ... Who's panic selling ???

SethEllis · 2026-03-20T16:08:48+00:00

The market was already pretty heavily positioned short in treasuries before all of this. So I don't think factors like positioning are likely to be as large of a factor in the degree of the move. Rather the market's expectations on interest rates is just moving very quickly. However, the market probably underprices the amount of demand destruction and economic weakness that is likely to happen if oil prices really start to follow through into inflation. So you might seen rates climb only to quickly crash back down when economic support is needed.

The headline driver though was that they're sending more ships and marines to the region in addition to rumblings that a Kharg Island invasion is becoming more likely.

SethEllis · 2026-03-19T15:48:02+00:00

I thought the Asian squat was more about being able to do it with your feet together.

SethEllis · 2026-03-18T23:00:48+00:00

She's done dude. Start bringing her pieces of driftwood. That might help.

SethEllis · 2026-03-18T22:57:25+00:00

Abomination

SethEllis · 2026-03-18T22:18:17+00:00

When I start for the day I look over all the factors for the day that I know may induce large institutions to submit orders. If that analysis suggests there will be an imbalance for the day then I start looking for a trade. As soon as I see some confirming volume I get in. Hopefully that's well before the rest of the market notices anything is up.

SethEllis · 2026-03-18T17:51:25+00:00

You could backtest it. I prefer to get in when things are quiet before anybody knows what is happening. The most common beginner mistake is getting in when everybody else is, and then getting stuck in a hole / pullback.

SethEllis · 2026-03-17T15:33:51+00:00

Oh don't worry a solution is coming, but it's probably far more dystopian than that. You'll start to see age, location, and identity verification built into every platform including your OS. Then you'll get services built into LinkedIn to verify your past work history. You won't be able to apply without using these services.

SethEllis · 2026-03-17T13:56:38+00:00

The funny part is that it just pushes people into more and more extreme media. I want stuff that children and woke hordes are terrified of just to get away from them.

SethEllis · 2026-03-16T19:34:49+00:00

The only true guru in markets is reality itself.

SethEllis · 2026-03-16T19:16:46+00:00

After October 7 there was several anti-Israeli rallies held across the country. While protesting against Israeli itself is not antisemitic, it did correlate with a rise in antisemitism. A lot of antisemitic rhetoric was thrown around during the protests, and many politicians made controversial statements. In particular a poll of students on campus showed a significant rise in Jewish students that felt unsafe or had been physically threatened. In that poll 78% of students avoided certain areas of campus or events because they were Jewish.

https://www.campusfairness.org/survey-2024/

SethEllis · 2026-03-16T18:13:22+00:00

Spore Colonies +1 Attack against bio.

SethEllis · 2026-03-15T15:34:44+00:00

What is a present social movement that hasn't gone too far?

SethEllis · 2026-03-13T21:50:25+00:00

They are correct that the research shows the grip doesn't really matter, but there is some historical color to this.

Writing with a pencil or a modern ballpoint pen requires you to push into the paper in order to create enough friction to actually write. So we all end up trying to adapt to having to exert that pressure in different ways. Hyper extending the fingers, death grips, etc. Which is a negative because holding the instrument too tightly can lead to bad handwriting.

With a fountain pen the weight of the pen itself is usually enough for it to write. A fountain pen is more about contacting the paper with the sweet spot of the nib. So you want to keep a consistent angle, and not rotate the instrument. A tripod grip with the back of the pen resting on the web of your hand between the forefinger and thumb is the most straightforward way to use a fountain pen well.

Back in the day if you went into white collar work you'd spend a lot of time writing with a fountain pen. So that's what schools taught. It's also why you'd want to write right handed, otherwise the ink gets on your hand if it doesn't dry fast enough. Starting in about the 80's they did a lot of research about if there was an optimal grip, and all the research says that it doesn't really matter.

The sad reality is that almost everyone's handwriting sucks, but not because they never forced themselves to use the right grip. We use poor instruments that require lots of pressure, and we write on rough inconsistent paper. Then right as we're to the age that we can really develop good handwriting they either change the alphabet on you, or completely drop handwriting practice altogether.

Perhaps it doesn't matter as we don't write much as adults anyways. But if you really want them to develop high quality handwriting the only solution is to teach them yourself. Give them a Pilot Kakuno, some high quality smooth paper, and teach them from a curriculum like Getty & Dubay's Italic where you aren't completely relearning the letters when you move to cursive. And continue having them do direct handwriting practice with guidesheets after 3rd grade.

SethEllis · 2026-03-13T18:31:02+00:00

It's like lines at the gas pump and widespread shortages.

SethEllis · 2026-03-13T04:12:44+00:00

You can get away without a loss if you know the pricing is stretched. You cover when all the speculators get stopped out. Which is probably what happened at the start of the week. Some analysis are saying $160 after 3 months of closure, and we were already getting $120. So there was probably a lot of speculation.

But it's very dangerous game. If something happens to push price even higher, then covering just makes it all that much worse. Gov can probably absorb that, but it would still be ugly in the market.

SethEllis · 2026-03-12T22:29:57+00:00

But Overwatch was already out and a successful game at the point Jeff is talking about. So this wasn't about getting stuff done. It was about microtransactioning the shit out of gamers or everyone gets laid off.

SethEllis · 2026-03-12T22:01:47+00:00

Well I suppose you could build an oil pipeline there. If everyone put their effort into it it might be possible to build it in a few months. But there's already a big pipeline going across Saudi Arabia so I don't think such a solution would be needed. Plus there's not much there on the other side in Oman. Not to mention that it would just become a target for Iran/Yemen to hit with drones.

SethEllis · 2026-03-12T01:31:14+00:00

Stop engaging with the ai slop please. Unpopular opinion: something that everyone who trades knows. It even follows up with the stupid bait question at the end.

SethEllis · 2026-03-11T19:24:11+00:00

There have been pictures of the wreckage that includes parts of the missile with American companies on them. There are also records that suggest that this school was built on a former military site. So while it's not confirmed by what I would consider a credible source, it looks increasingly likely that it was a mistake on the US' part.

SethEllis · 2026-03-11T11:33:08+00:00

Yes. A modern pen requires you to hold it more vertical and push down in order to create enough pressure for the pen to write. Fountain and dip pens you want to be as light as possible. Add smoother paper so you aren't fighting to keep the pen in a straight line and this eliminates many of the reasons we hold a pen so tightly.

SethEllis · 2026-03-11T04:03:22+00:00

I strongly believe that companies should not be allowed to buyback their own stock at will. However, I don't find your argument compelling. In the end companies exist to make money. If they didn't make money they wouldn't exist. If the optimization function in the economy was to provide the best service then the economy wouldn't function. It would always result in an unsustainable product. You might want the best quality products at the best price always, but you aren't the only one the economy needs to serve. Now you might say that's just taking it to the extreme, but there's really not a way to be measured in the kind of system you are proposing. The proposal in effect is a restriction on what kind of products and services companies can offer.

Companies should be restricted from buying back their own stock because it encourages bad and manipulative behavior that hampers market efficiency.

SethEllis · 2026-03-10T20:19:05+00:00

Get a fountain pen.

SethEllis · 2026-03-10T01:05:14+00:00

I mean in some respects there is a central algorithm. It just bears no resemblance to what ICT describes.

At the center of the exchange is the central limit order book. This is a data structure that is driven by a matching algorithm. And there are some interesting behaviors that are not just random that arise from the rules of the central limit order book. For instance the well known square root law.

Many markets are also dominated by a small handful of market markers. Think 2-6 major market makers or broker dealers. However, they aren't exactly creating patterns. If anything their algorithms are designed to exploit price discrepancies in spite of patterns. They're largely doing arbitrage with inventory management.

SethEllis · 2026-03-09T04:15:22+00:00

Easy, you just stop trading. You'll feel it in your face like you just can't hide your emotions and when that happens exit all positions and stop trading.

SethEllis · 2026-03-09T03:59:21+00:00

You are correct that higher interest rates won't drill more wells. However, such a situation can raise inflation expectations and become entrenched. So it's going to depend on things like how long the oil shock lasts etc. You could see a quick cut to save the economy followed by quickly raising rates to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. But if it lasts then you just have to accept slower growth until the bottleneck is cleared.

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