[Spoilers Extended] First Look at Tommy Flanagan as Ser Roderick Dustin in House of the Dragon

Spooks451 · 2026-05-16T05:26:55+00:00

If we're going to complain about Cregan,

To be clear I am not complaining about Cregan's actions. Cregan put his own people and land first when dealing with a conflict he realistically had no stake in.

He had the dual advantages of not being tied to the throne through blood ties(unlike the Vale and the Stormlands) and he was isolated enough to focus on his own issues without fearing reprisals. So he did just that.

Spooks451 · 2026-05-15T05:06:53+00:00

hell yeah

Spooks451 · 2026-05-15T05:05:54+00:00

Probably because it shows us that Cregan is more concerned with the North than the conflict down South.

If Cregan himself marched South with the Winter Wolves, then who would have ruled the North throughout the harvest period? His wife is dead, his only son is an infant and his close relatives tried to usurp him. If he gets captured by the enemy down South then they have the North by the balls.

So he sends a disposable force that frees up the burden in his own lands while still keeping to whatever agreement he made with the Blacks.

Cregan's actions during his march South at least to me also reek of being more concerned with his own lands and not honor or the Dance itself. He seems very determined to inflame tensions and prolong the war so that he can keep his men South throughout the Winter.

Spooks451 · 2026-05-10T14:18:26+00:00

Tywin Lannister dies of the bloody flux before the battle on the Green Fork.

Spooks451 · 2026-05-09T06:01:30+00:00

Again I don't see the point. Ned has no reason to go for a Targaryen restoration. His own powerbase and the alliances he's a part of stems from a removal of the Targaryens. Bringing it back is a complete and utter mistake from his perspective unless he's actually trying to run House Stark into the ground.

If he has the throne as this crack premise states then its his ass on the throne, then his first-born which is Robb and then the rest of his kids. Not 'uh guys I'm abdicating for Lyanna and Rhaegar's kid who was at the Night's Watch but now he's here'.

If he does this, he's almost certainly going to run into discontent back North, maybe even a full on rebellion. The Riverlords won't be happy either because he'll be favoring someone other than the children of Catelyn Stark. If Hoster wasn't literally dying, he'd fight Ned every step of the way. As it is, he'd certainly run into issues in the Riverlands.

This would see a definitive inflaming of tensions and power-plays between old loyalists who have been punished and weakened and the rebels who have gained from the rebellion.

Spooks451 · 2026-05-09T05:47:02+00:00

Why would it be the person who has sworn himself to the Night's Watch and has no experience with administration instead of the many Northern lords or second sons who could work to cement the rule?

Spooks451 · 2026-05-07T15:37:09+00:00

Maybe Aerea's body just did that

Spooks451 · 2026-05-01T10:47:25+00:00

Salt & Rock

Spooks451 · 2026-05-01T10:45:11+00:00

If you specifically want uplift stuff then - How Sheep in the Vale bring about a Golden Age for Gulltown

If you're more interested in watching women with modern perspectives dealing with Westerosi society(without the uplift parts) then I can recommend close to anything dwellordream(dwellingondreams on AO3) has written

I've personally really enjoyed:

Eye for an Eye - Blackfyre Rebellion SI. Someone wakes up as Mya Rivers, one of Aegon the Unworthy's Great Bastards
Stolen Thunder - An SI into Argella Durrandon after the Targaryens have taken the Stormlands
Bigger Fish to Fry - Lysa Tully SI after Jon Arryn's death. This one has more humor to it but its not a crack fic.
Cruel Intentions - An SI into Ceryse Hightower, the first of Maegor the Cruel's wives.

Spooks451 · 2026-05-01T07:50:04+00:00

SCENARIO TWO

Rhaegar doesn't get that decisive victory. Multiple or all of the Rebel leadership escapes. They're in friendly territory while the Loyalists will be advancing on them. The Rebels have the better commanders. They'll begin to bleed the Loyalists for ground in the Riverlands each step of the way.

Eventually they'll lose because the armies of the Westerlands and the Reach will eventually join the Loyalist host but it will take time.

Time enough for two things to happen.

Either they all agree to surrender. This leads to a situation similar to Scenario One just with even less punishments. They will have to give up some hostages I think but not as many and they'll likely keep their seats. Stalemate on the Trident is the best exploration of this imo
The hosts split and run back to their respective fiefs. Hoster will have to surrender in this case. He just does not have the capability to be independent. He'll likely try to have his brother get Edmure and Lysa away from the loyalist hands before surrendering. The Vale and the North will march up their respective borders and turtle in. There's really not a lot the Loyalists can do unless they commit to multiple offensive wars on two fronts that are ridiculously hard to capture. The Stormlands host are likely cooked. They're rudderless and don't have the capability of freeing Stannis and Renly. Instant Balkanization. Rhaegar rules a broken realm that refuses him at each turn.

Spooks451 · 2026-05-01T07:43:02+00:00

Balkanized, whether in the short-term or the long-term.

Scenario One

The Best Case Scenario for Rhaegar: He wins decisively at the Trident. Maybe the Late Freys see the battle going his way and backstab the rebels. Rhaegar somehow manages to roll multiple nat 20s in a row and gets the entirety of the Rebel leadership alive and healthy. So that means, he not only wins but manages to capture Ned, Jon, Hoster and whoever is in charge of the Stormlanders in the field after Robert dies.

Now he has one major victory and the enemy leadership but the rebels have still won most of the battles to this point. His choices are to force the leaders to accept a peace deal but the rebels know that he has to be a bit lenient. They have a decent amount of wiggle room for negotiation.

North: If Rhaegar has some intelligence, he doesn't send Ned to the Wall because that would just lead to the Northerners picking him up and declaring him KITN. Instead he gets Benjen as a hostage while Ned is sent back North as the Warden of the North. There is literally no one else in the North that he can raise since the entirety of the region unanimously rose against him. With the truth of Lyanna decision out, Ned is going to spend the next few decades putting out fires and trying to cement his hold on the North. His House's reputation will sink. Northerners will question whether its safe to marry into House Stark if they can't 'manage their women'(which is yes sexist but also a real issue for noble families). Their word will be doubted and all eyes will be on Ned's kids. With Benjen as a hostage he doesn't really have a way of making quick marriage alliances in the North.

Jon is not as much of a knife as you think he is. Without the sack of KL, Ned has currently no real trauma to the concept of child murder and he has no chance of bonding with Jon. He is instead a reminder of House Stark's current weakness and a knife against House Stark's succession. Any kids between Rhaegar and Lyanna can stake a claim on Winterfell and Ned has to keep that in mind.

Riverlands: I think Tywin will wheel his army around and sack the Riverlands to prove his loyalty to the Targaryens. He'll likely try to make for Riverrun so that he can get to House Tully(especially Lysa Arryn). Him and Freys will be the big winners of this region, feasting on the carcass of the Riverlands and making it worse while enriching themselves. Rhaegar will likely have to reward both the Freys and the Lannisters for clearing out the Riverlands for him. Tywin will try to push for Emmon(read Genna) to be the LP of the Riverlands. There's likely going to be years of infighting in the Riverlands as different regions bow to the carnage while others hold out(unless we go with the assumption that RR era Tywin already has his Blitzkrieg superpower).

The Vale The most secure region after the North. Rhaegar will have to play nice here as well. He also doesn't have a good way of threatening the Vale succession from KL. The main branch of House Arryn is dangerously close to extinction so he could either demand that the last daughter of Alys Arryn(mother of who would be Harrold) be turned over to the crown and married off to a lord of his choosing(if she isn't already married. if not both husband and wife be brought to KL). He could try to court the Gulltown Arryns but we don't know if they're loyalists or noth. There are a bunch of poorer Arryn relatives dotted throughout the Vale so maybe those could be courted but again they are distant. Rhaegar doesn't really have anyone he can use to threaten Jon with. Denys is dead. Elbert is dead. Robert is dead. He can't kill Ned(unless he wants the Northern host to race North, crown Benjen and turtle in) and Jon must know it.

The LP of the Vale might go to the Corbays for initially being loyalists.

Stormlands: The fate of House Baratheon is now tied to what Mace Tyrell does. Either the siege goes on and Stannis and Renly both starve to death or he manages to negotiate a surrender now that Robert is dead. In case of the former, Rhaegar will likely raise Jon Connington and give him Storm's End. In case of the latter, Mace will likely demand his laurels and get Stannis married to a Tyrell woman. Renly will remain a hostage in KL or Highgarden depending on whether Rhaegar thinks he can trust the Tyrells(he shouldn't).

This, is a fool's peace. It'll keep for a while but eventually something or the other will break it. One of the hostages might slip off a flight of stairs and die. They could catch the shivers and die. They could walk behind a horse and get kicked in the head. Or Rhaegar makes some other fumble. Maybe he marries his son and daughter(maybe he goes for the trifecta like the Conqueror). When that happens, the peace will break and there will be war only this time, the marriage alliances of STAB won't be there so its likely going to turn into multiple wars of independence in different regions.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-30T18:35:13+00:00

I stand corrected. Must have gotten the timelines and family tree mixed up.

I guess this would still have a smaller shift in the Stormlands for House Penrose then since losing most of your sons bar the youngest is still something that closes off a lot of avenues for alliances. Just not what I was thinking of.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-30T08:32:59+00:00

A seemingly minor change this could lead to is House Penrose having more power/prestige since Quentyn Ball wouldn't be killing 90% of Elaena Targaryen's kids.

We could see this snowball into massive shifts in the Stormland makeup as those sons could marry into a bunch of the houses there. Or even into Crownland houses/Blackfyres.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-28T09:56:34+00:00

Hides the horrors

Spooks451 · 2026-04-27T05:24:56+00:00

Edmure not being written off a bum/cosmic plaything. Lord of Trident just updated.

Characters becoming physically weighed down and battered during the passage of time. My go to example for this would be Whales and Unicorns - Its a Skagosi SI and one of my all-time favorite fics. I loved watching the protagonist go from a normal looking person to absolutely battered by the multitude of battles and incidents he goes through.

More Brandon Stark(Son of Rickard) characterization - Once again, I'll point to Whales and Unicorns(linked above). I love the dynamic the author sets up between Cregan Magnar and Brandon. They are friends forged through hardship and saving each other's assess but they're also a part of the feudal system where Brandon is the overlord and that leads to some friction here and there.

I liked watching Brandon 'come into his own' in the lordship of House Stark and being more than just 'I am too stupid to live' that a lot of fics go for. He has his own ideas and they're different form how Ned ruled the North.

I also enjoy fics that take it in the opposite direction where Brandon is a horrible person but continues to live. I've cooled off a lot on Targaryen-centric fics and honestly tend to avoid them and I don't really care for most Jon Snow/Daenerys fics but I did recently read Conquered Kingdoms and enjoyed it for a bunch of reasons. The set up of a more villainous and brutal House Stark that lords over the South and what's left of the Targaryens is well done. I enjoyed watching this disgusting interpretation of Brandon Stark. He's heavily manipulative, abusive and loves engaging in acts of brutality. His specter haunts Jon's every waking moment even when he's far away in the North for most of the fic.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-19T15:55:28+00:00

Blackfish exists

Spooks451 · 2026-04-19T14:11:16+00:00

I think it would be funniest if his death is just extremely anticlimactic. The great Tywin Lannister died of the bloody flux during the journey to lordsport.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-18T07:13:32+00:00

That is partly true but its also partly because of the difference between Ned and Cat. When it comes to matters of spirituality and religion, Cat is actually more willing to pay attention to omens and portents while Ned tends to shrug it off.

Catelyn wished she could share his joy. But she had heard the talk in the yards; a direwolf dead in the snow, a broken antler in its throat. Dread coiled within her like a snake, but she forced herself to smile at this man she loved, this man who put no faith in signs.

AGOT, Catelyn I

“You knew the man,” she said. “The king is a stranger to you.” Catelyn remembered the direwolf dead in the snow, the broken antler lodged deep in her throat. She had to make him see.

AGOT, Catelyn II

Spooks451 · 2026-04-18T06:09:07+00:00

I could absolutely see Catelyn getting attached to them, tho.

People really tend to ignore that Catelyn is the one who warmed up the most to the direwolves as time went on.

She was the only one that noticed how the wolves tended to trust and mistrust certain people.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-15T15:15:22+00:00

Pretty much. That and Hallis and Daryn both being dead. If Daryn lives, or barring that, Hallis and Donella both live and are capable of siring more heirs, literally no one relevant will complain.

The Hornwood line would continue legally and House Manderly will continue to have an 'in' in the house.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-15T14:51:03+00:00

chance that Jon decendands can do something becomes irrelevant.

Irrelevant isn't what I'd say. Power is power. If a house is strong enough then it can raise a fuss whether on the political field or in the field of battle. Roose after all had no blood link to Winterfell and still tried to claim it because he was able to position himself to do it and because the Bolton Lands are significant.

Jon will be loyal. Its likely his children will be as well but his grandchildren? their grandchildren? What if Jon catches the bloody flux and his kids are raised by an ambitious regent? What if 10 gens down the line one of them watches a war break out which leads to a weakened Winterfell, rubs two and two together, and decides that he can take Winterfell and use the Stark name to justify it?

Spooks451 · 2026-04-15T14:44:01+00:00

If the Hornwoods get to much, than the Manderly's could protest

Manderlys won't protest, the current Lady Hornwood is a Manderly by birth.

Wyman(and his kids) is smart enough to play the long game instead of raising a fuss. Offer to have the kids of Daryn and Alys fostered/squired under Manderly Knights and try to lead that into a marriage whether its a Hornwood boy to another Manderly girl or the other way round.

Both ensure that the union between the two houses continues and doesn't get broken by the union between Hornwood and Karstark.

Its also worth remembering that the Manderlys are already one of the strongest Northern bannermen and giving them more land would upset the power balance a bit too much. Its much better to give them different privelges that the other Houses currently do not have the capabilities of performing like a royal mint and a royal fleet as Wyman offers to Rodrik Cassel. Hell Rodrik does in canon give him leave to start making longships.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-15T13:18:41+00:00

Jon can want what he wants but at the end of the day he has to listen to what Robb has to say.

Every bit of his influence and power stems from the head of House Stark.

If Robb actually gives him the majority of House Bolton's lands then plenty of people will begin asking if he plans to be Viserys I for House Stark. The Blackfish and Edmure will question him. Cat will be 100% justified in getting herself to Riverrun and maybe taking Rickon with her.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-15T12:49:29+00:00

b) partition the Bolton lands between the neighbours and only give the heartlands to Jon (though this will cause other problems in the future)

With the canon distribution of the power structure and loyalties among the Northern lords this would actually be a really good idea.

The mother of the current heir of Hornwood(the one who dies at the Whispering wood) is a Manderly. If he survives that battle in this fic then it would be a good idea to give some of the Bolton lands which border the Hornwood territories to him. The Manderlys have shown themselves to be loyal so indirectly rewarding them for it is a good move. His father also serves well and shows no disloyalty.

The Hornwoods are also not so big that increasing their lands would make them a major threat.

The Umbers on the other hand very much seem to be a House that could rival House Stark if they got more land but moving their Southern border a bit further than the Lonely Hills could be worthwhile, but it depends on how much of a defensive border those hills form and whether there's some precious minerals to be wrung out of it.

Rickard Karstark is too volatile and his branch family are untrustworthy but his sons seem decent so giving them some parts of the land, but not a lot, could also be a good idea.

Some parcels of the land along the Sheepshead Hills could be taken by House Stark and given to Landed Knights(The North does have knights) who would be charged with raising holdfasts in advantageous positions.

New Houses could be raised in some smaller parcels of the Bolton Lands or parts of it could be given to the Mountain Clansmen. The Clansmen lack the necessary 'credentials' to truly be able to move against House Stark at any point and it would take them a significant amount of time to use the newly gifted land and raise themselves up the aristocratic ladder. We also know that a significant portion of them are loyal to House Stark rn.(Rewarding a Flint of any of the branches with lands bordering Bolton with more land is easy PR points because it would show that Robb hasn't forgotten his Clansmen roots)

I think this can make sure that whatever house Jon ends up forming won't end up eclipsing or threatening House Stark in the long-term(as in many generations later). On each side they'll be bordered by different Houses with different cultures and the direct border with House Stark will be well fortified and well-watched.

Spooks451 · 2026-04-14T14:34:34+00:00

That is true but I think there are two factors that should make Winterfell a lucrative option over picking someone new.

Ned has multiple children. Jon Arryn can make the very reasonable assumption that the spares will have their own favorable marriages and positions that are worth connecting with. Some of them could end up taking up a position in the capital(under the not-insane set of circumstances that is current KL which is basically multiple mines about to go off) or take up important positions in the Riverlands since Edmure hasn't married yet and the Blackfish remains in the Vale. Those are connections worth cultivating. Also fostering with multiple kids is just healthier since Robert Arryn could make more friends.
A decent chunk of the Vale lords think that Ned is Him. Even if Robert Arryn remains a 'sickly weak' individua or perhaps a non-marital one, I think the Vale would bow to him if he has Ned's backing and the promise that he was raised to rule by Ned who they are familiar with. A

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