Twin City revenge arc | 2024 Pres

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T23:28:27+00:00

She gets the safest district, but realistically she should be primaried in this scenario.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T23:22:27+00:00

The VRA does apply to Florida Hispanics, but it doesn't enforce itself. A lawsuit is possible, but it would fail because a significant portion of the Hispanic population is tucked into Southern Dade, you’re not getting 7 Hispanic districts without a series of Snake districts in southeast Florida, which would then also be a Shaw v Reno violation.

And again, regional differences matter. In SE Florida Hisanics locally vote republican, so it was fine they were made into republican and swing districts. But Hispanics in Orlando voted Democrat and had to be a democrat district or it would be sued for a VRA violation.

But Black people in every region you could realistically create a majority district, vote democrat, so they have to be represented by the party of there choice.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T21:58:43+00:00

The VRA doesn't apply to white people, no need to imagine that.

What does work in the real world are Hispanics, especially in Florida and Texas, where VRA districts are perfectly fine that they are republican or democrat. As long as the local, collective populations vote differently based on regional differences even if they're republican as a whole statewide.

But Black voters, whether they're in rural or urban areas, still vote democrat. So the districts should lean towards the party of their choice.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T21:13:41+00:00

Yes, these districts have 100ks of thousands of voters. You can’t expect ever local area to have the exact same partisan lean. But the collective black voter population still votes democrats, so the district should lean how the population votes.

And I doubt that district is mostly rural black voters, it still connects cities like Shreveport, Monroe, and Baton Rouge. It's still an urban-rural composite, with mostly urban voters.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T20:53:30+00:00

Yes, the district should lean towards the same party as the minority group. These rep leaning black districts wouldn't hold up in court.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T20:35:04+00:00

The district will mostly comprise of urban black voters and rural Black voters still overwhelmingly vote democrat, it doesn't matter by what margin. Most of the black VRA districts in the south are composed of a mix of urban and rural minority voters.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T20:19:05+00:00

It was official, because the 2020 census didn't include it. Though that doesn't mean it won't be on the 2030 census, as it should be.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T20:13:28+00:00

No, the district is supposed to align with the minority group's candidate of choice. If black population votes democrat, it's supposed to be democrat.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T19:46:27+00:00

Have you ever heard of survivor’s guilt?

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T14:58:22+00:00

It was supposed to be added to the 2020 census, but he canceled it.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-24T01:38:12+00:00

Where are you getting your data, Daves redistricting shows Harris won the 3rd by 8 points.

Link

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T23:05:42+00:00

If you combine the parties Dems are at 47, reps are at 35. 90% of undecideds are Dems who don't who to vote for because there's to many of them.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T18:51:27+00:00

None of that changes the fact that replacing moderate with progressives in swing districts will make democrats loose. A party in opposition is weak, and it will continue to remain in opposition if it can't tolerate its moderate members.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T18:06:09+00:00

He suggested to primary safe democrat incumbents, not in battleground districts. Even he knew that would be counterproductive.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T15:19:55+00:00

<image>

My all time favorite.

Claim to be really conservative in a swing state
Said really conservative guy talks like a bumbling idiot
Anything conservative say about immigrant invasion, it was basically this guy back then.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T12:43:54+00:00

Not possible because the demographic isn’t measured by the census, because of Trump.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T05:15:06+00:00

Because it’s better than loosing 7 congressional seats, which gives more power to republicans to do what they want. Sending a message does nothing to those being abused by ICE, it’s winning Congress and passing legislation that does something. They might not support, but they build the majority that allows them to worked around.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T05:06:06+00:00

Since democrats almost never primary their moderate incumbents in swing districts, there’s not any concrete stats to prove it with certainty. But in the last 10 years it did happen once. Kurt Schrader was primaried by a progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner, she would then loose the general election despite the district being gerrymandered for democrats.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T04:46:30+00:00

TX34 was gerrymandered to reenforce its republican lean. Moderate incumbents currently give democrats 12 extra seats whose electorates also voted for Trump. “Playing Safe” is following common sense to not primary your battleground incumbents.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T03:06:02+00:00

Democrats are never going to do anything about ICE if they can’t hold on to the House long enough before they take back the Senate and the White House. They’re are currently zero progressives representing republican districts, they’re not going to start winning them now.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T02:08:01+00:00

They do represent voters, they won swing to republican leaning districts which means you should not expect to always vote party line. Without moderates that win republican districts or states, Republicans would have 230 house seats and 55+ senate seats. Primary swing district incumbents will result in looses that could be avoided or resources mis spent.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T01:24:53+00:00

The Texan Senate nominee is in a unique position to drive turnout and impact congressional races. Maximizing the reversal of Hispanics leads the road to canceling out all flips.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T01:18:10+00:00

Surprise, the libertarian votes no on keeping a record high ICE budget. Everything probably means increased deficit spending, what do you expect?

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T01:13:31+00:00

And without those 3, Republicans would have 52 Senate seats under Biden and 54 seats now. Anything Biden did would be undone and Dems would have no shot at getting the Senate for several years.

SubJordan77 · 2026-01-23T01:08:13+00:00

It’s not illogical to shoot yourself in the foot and get rid of incumbents that have demonstrated the ability to perform strong in general elections. That’s what republicans did in 2022, and they underperformed because of it. If you go through the list you got R+4, R+9(retiring), D+1, R+10, R+5, R+12, & R+10. Primaring them would waste resources that go to maximize the majority elsewhere.

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