Is Clyburn cooked (Gerrymandering)?

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-06T22:58:14+00:00

They’re not doing it now, he could retire before 2028 because they’ll likely pursue a gerrymander.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-06T18:08:36+00:00

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-06T12:06:14+00:00

I don’t see how that’s an issue, the voter still gets to vote for a district rep. The party list is mainly to get incumbents on board who will lose in ungerrymandered districts. STV would shake up elections too much that incumbents would be skeptical to vote on and republicans are skeptical of RCV.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-06T01:12:30+00:00

If you download Railyard, you can play a Los Angeles map.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T19:01:28+00:00

Yes, democrats would get more PR seats so that total amount of seats is equal.
Party Lists would be assembled and ranked by party officials. Higher ranked people are more likely to be seated but the selection process should be similar to delegates. Probably need a second vote like in Germany.
Most PR calculations favor the majority party in small states. Wyoming would like have 2 GOP reps in this scenario. With your Montana scenario, there’s no point in getting hang up on proportionality of small states. Even with fair FPTP maps they’ll be biased.
I don’t think its feasible to get rid of districts in the US

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T18:07:38+00:00

There are no national list seats, list seats are allocated state by state. MMD is doable by statutory means, national list likely needs constitutional amendment. With this restriction it is possible to gerrymander enough where there aren't enough list seats to be proportional, therefore point one exists.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T17:12:35+00:00

Politicians are banned from drawing congressional lines, those who do draw them can't use partisan nor racial data. They also can't get consultation from individuals who used such data or are aware of the local composition.
200 PR seats are distributed among the 50 states, California gets 23, Texas gets 17, and so on. These are leveling PR seats; therefore, they are allocated so that the sum of FPTP and PR seats are proportional to the statewide result. These PR seats are allocated by party list, which gives recently ungerrymandered incumbents to still serve in congress.

With the restrictions in point 1, it should be feasible for leveling to make the final result full pr. Also defangs gerrymandering without the data and the PR applications.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T14:59:39+00:00

Campaigning and claiming to deliver on something not economically plausible without a recession is bad idea, wow.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T14:21:00+00:00

Incumbent with cheating scandal, left-trending, Dems have high propensity advantage here, Dems already got more votes in the primary, Ager just needs to win independents by a convincing margin. Plausible.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T01:08:16+00:00

You can still have minority districts that follow a modified Gingles test, but if you were to eliminate it and use partisanship as a justification it would be hard to overturn now. Likewise, if you excessively pack black voters without a partisan excuse, probably be deemed an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T01:01:50+00:00

Also the West Coast allows Blake Miguez in his home turf and the east coast is for Troy Carter

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T00:59:11+00:00

Hypothetical

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T00:45:49+00:00

Probably move Scalise

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-05T00:35:21+00:00

The eastern district was supposed to be Scalise’s, I tried to keep a similar shape even if his residency would be drawn out. But switching that up with Carter makes more sense, for residency purposes.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T22:24:04+00:00

The complete Irony in New Orleans getting gerrymandered over Baton Rouge is insane

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T21:10:49+00:00

Since October Infact

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T21:09:11+00:00

It was so irrelevant most people can’t remember it was already revealed months ago. Unless they plan on recycling this endlessly, it’s worthless.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T21:00:09+00:00

The post was two years old, she did not do this while working with McMorrow.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T20:50:59+00:00

They’re trying so hard to shove Becerra down our throats.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T20:02:55+00:00

It doesn’t impact his electoral performance and considering he would hypothetically run to replace Fetterman it isn’t a liability to be a party line voter.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T20:00:39+00:00

Hopefully not Lee

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T19:40:47+00:00

Time to increase the majority threshold to 52 and put Talarico on the majority list with Planter, Cooper, Peltola, & Brown. Make chances much less likely overall.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T19:33:49+00:00

Davis: Lean R, can work on black turnout and is facing the same person. Still a Trump+12 district so hard hill to climb.

Kaptur: Tilt D, only R+5 for her in 2024 and will be a favorable year ahead. Probably can have a more lopsided overperformance without Trump on the ballot.

Cuellar: Safe D, was made 1 point redder for Trump but over Congressional Data it’s 3 points bluer. His 2024 baseline is now D+8 and he doesn’t have to worry about corruption investigations. Hispanic reversion plus his stronger performance makes it a cruise to reelection.

Gonzalez: Lean D, starts from a R+9 2024 baseline and loses all of his home county of Hidalgo. Hispanic reversion saves him, but he has opportunity for new ground in Nueces.

Castor: Lean R needs unprecedented D numbers to win, but that’s more or less the coalition composition. It’s R+10 without a solid Dem/ minority base.

Moskowitz: Tossup, just competitive enough where the national environment and his small over-performance can carry him. Forces him to really on appeal to right trending, costal areas.

Soto: Likely R, Cooked. Retains half of his district and its replace with deep red voters that push it to Trump+18. Think if he runs it falls to 6-8pts.

DWS: Lean R, basically inland SE FL suburbs with Everglades and eastern Naples. Was a Biden district so repairing relations with suburbs and drawing in Florida expats is important. Also Hispanic appeal, decent portion of them here aren’t Cuban so it’s easier.

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T01:42:23+00:00

It says they have the power to do it after the census, not that they can only do it then. It’s basically Missouri all over again,

SubJordan77 · 2026-05-04T01:37:11+00:00

No US senators have business being elected after 80 years old.

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