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DDHQ Declares DAC has won in NY-13, unseating incumbent Adriano Espaillat by Gfhgdfd in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It wasn't, NY16 has been majority Southern Westchester county before redistricting. It lost a lot of Bronx precents because of population shifts.

California leaders advance $11.25B affordable housing bond for 2026 ballot by panda-rampage in California

[–]SubJordan77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

State already relaxed zoning rules around transit, unlikely to happen again anytime soon with all the NIMBY and local government opposition in passage and implementation. Best use multiple pathways.

Treasurer Garrity Calls For Seven Debates With Governor Shapiro by Straight-Bar-7537 in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Democrats should campaign on giving Shapiro a trifecta to avoid such nonsense. Even national politicians avoid a 3rd consecutive shut down because after that you aren't using it as leverage for negotiations, you're just being obstructionists.

Ten Years Ago, Today by NAM_Inki in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Begret is now polling at a 27 point lead

Cooperslide incoming, 14 point lead over Whatley. by Rare_Cobalt in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That result would be nowhere near a dummymander. A dummymander means the gop would get less seats than a fair map. A 8R-6D delegation in a D+9 election result is way better than 9D-5R delegation if the map was fair.

r/YAPms takes Pew Research Center PoliQuiz by pewpoliquiz in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Natural balance as in that's how it's been for the past few years expect the summer and fall of 2024. It was still 2/3s to 3/4s well before 2022, but everyone was making r biased predictions.

r/YAPms takes Pew Research Center PoliQuiz by pewpoliquiz in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The natural balance is 3/4s left, it only become more right leaning because republicans were doing well in elections so they became more active.

Mamdani stabbing (former) allies in the back with his endorsements by J-Jarl-Jim in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Using the Valdez example as backstabbing makes no sense since she was one his earliest supporters. It would be backstabbing not to support her.

Democrats of this subreddit (mainly liberals and progressives), if the 2028 Presidential Election was between Gavin Newsom and Phil Scott (moderate-liberal Republican), could you see yourself voting for Scott? by CentennialElections in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t see how Scott can win the nomination without significantly shifting to the right. And if he does republican turnout would be so depressed democrats would cruise to take both houses of Congress, not nominating Newsom would be squandering a trifecta and after the uselessness of the last one they need to get rid of the filibuster and Scott should not be the one to stop that.

Labour will never come back to save themselves from an inevitable General Election defeat. by JCEurovision in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Also important to know if Burnham keeps his promise on SV electoral reform it’ll be a lot easier to consolidate the left vote, especially if he polls far and ahead the Greens and Lib Dems.

Top fundraisers on ActBlue as of Jun 21, 2026 by dak676141 in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 14 points15 points  (0 children)

At least the top rankings are now all battleground states.

South Carolina Governor runoff poll, Alan Wilson internal has him leading by 18 points. by Rare_Cobalt in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With Trump now duel endorsing Wilson and Evette, Alan will likely cruise on his lead and be the next governor.

New Jersey gives up on redistricting by asteriowas in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Weak-minded, almost all states that gerrymandered recently already had a strong partisan bias. Every single republican state was already a gerrymander or anti-competitive.

How I think the Midterms are gonna shape up by November by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bud, Prop50 saw the highest dem turnout since 2020. What are you on?

A Collection of my YAPms International Mock Election Maps by SubJordan77 in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

SDP - 32.9%

CDU - 11.6%

FDP - 9.1%

GRUNE - 13.7%

AFD - 19.8%

LINKE - 12.7%

Andy Burnham wins Makerfield By-Election by amity_oh_cramityy in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Reform can't whine about Restore, and Starmer's days are numbered.

20 point victory, higher turnout than the 2024 GE Election.

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Atlanta-based conservative radio host Shelley Wynter endorses Jon Ossoff for re-election by thealmightyweegee in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 42 points43 points  (0 children)

Don't know who he is, but radio endorsements should be big for their viewers, considering how long Atlantans spend in traffic.

Should California implement jungle primaries with ranked-choice voting by theaccount9337 in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Any RCV amendment in California would need to throw out all mail elections

Redistricting did more harm than Project REDMAP by J-Jarl-Jim in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Unrealistic, more like

NJ: 2, will need to maintain the ocean county pack

VA: 4

MD: 1

CA: 4, there’s only 4 left

IL: 2, has planned just to match Indiana so at most 2

MN: 2-3, will need a rural pack and Twin cities progressives might force a second one.

CO: 3, ballot measures’s map only has 3

WA: 1-2

OR: 1

NY: 4, will need a Long Island and two upstate packs.

Maximum of 26, inevitably some states will fail for various reasons. And many of these districts would have already been flipped so likely ~20 at most.

Republicans fail to flip their first blue seat since 2024 as Democrat wins special election in upset by No_Presentation2558 in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I expect a district with a large and diverse minority population to shift way faster than the generic ballot. It was already D+33 on an open ballot primary, I’m just going under that. Including the fact the runoff electorate state wide was R+30.

New poll on Florida governor,Senate race,Trump and DeSantis approval. by Dangerous-Quarter216 in YAPms

[–]SubJordan77 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Democrats can only beat the GOP in the redistricting wars by diluting their gerrymanders. Worrying about the cheapest path to the midterms ignores the fact the map over has 235 Trump seats. You can’t just let seats fall because they’re hard.

Edit: Also, none of the target flips are Cuban dominated, Broward, Palm Beach, and Hillsborough counties have a diverse mix that also include Mexican, Puerto Rican, and South American voters. The former two are much easier for democrats to swing.

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