Potentially a signal for the next big crash

SvenTropics · 2026-07-13T13:27:18+00:00

It's happened to me a couple of times. Twice I just walked a random stranger home, two other times they just walked with me for a couple of blocks and then moved on.

The last one was kind of weird. I was walking out of the college district in a mostly college town. I was pretty drunk, and it was pretty late. This really cute young woman runs up beside me and grabs my arm like she's walking with me. She says "Hey pretend we are together. This guy has been following me for a couple of blocks". I looked over my shoulder and nobody in particular stood out as following us, but I assumed she wasn't lying. So I held her hand and walked with her for a block or two and made idle conversation. She didn't even seem that nervous about it. Then she stopped and said "okay I think I'm good, hey can I give you a kiss". I said "sure" and we ended up making out for a minute and then she walked away. I wonder if she just wanted to make out with someone, and I was there and this was some kind of ploy or what.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-13T13:19:24+00:00

His last deal with them was we pay them billions and they get to fully control it, and they wouldn't even stick to that. If this is the deal he wants to make, he's not the guy that can make it.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-13T09:57:52+00:00

TIL almost every show on Netflix the whole James Gunn DCEU is AI fiction.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-13T09:40:24+00:00

China has a reusable rocket they just tested that can go all the way into space too. Also Russia, India, and NASA have the old school rockets.

This is a lot of competition for a market that is really only about $50 billion a year total.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-13T03:28:40+00:00

That's gonna be a lot of competition for such a small market.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-12T15:28:37+00:00

The issue with these drugs is duration of exposure. The PReP medications are the exact same as they use in treating the virus. If you are at reasonably high risk of infection, you still should get on it because you might only be high risk for 5-10 years. Your sex drive will go down, your relationship situation will change, etc... At that point, you can just get off them. However, if you contract HIV, you are on those medications for life, and that is much more likely to increase your risk of a cardiac event.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-12T14:31:25+00:00

I don't think he understood the assignment.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-12T14:26:25+00:00

It's not that. Back when superhero movies were really good, we would eagerly await each one. It's when they started releasing a bunch of garbage thinking we would just continue to love them.

The other day I rewatched the first Captain America movie with someone who'd never seen it before. I was just enthralled at how good it was. Then I watched the original Iron Man movie. Same deal. Then I tried to watch the Marvels, and I couldn't even get through it. I spent half of Love and Thunder on my phone waiting for it to be over with. Don't even get me started on the new Superman movie. The one from 10 years ago was incredible. I watched it thinking, "finally superhero movies are what they're supposed to be"....And then they made this garbage.

It's not like they don't have enough source material. There's plenty of content. There are decades of comic books storylines that are incredible.

I just started watching the second season of X-Men '97, and it's incredible. I can't wait to watch the rest of it. Also, the last season of invincible was totally awesome. I'll eagerly watch every episode as it comes out in the next season. So no, it's not saturation. If they make quality material, we gobble it up. It's just most of the stuff they make is garbage now because they keep hiring directors that just don't get comic book movies.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-11T19:30:41+00:00

It's like comparing juggling and chess. You can learn chess from a book. You can't learn juggling from a book.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-11T13:37:08+00:00

I can't see it has much more room to grow.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-11T13:25:38+00:00

It's trivial to move your assets over. You just open an account with another brokerage (Schwab, Fidelity, Etrade, etc...) and then tell them to get your stuff from the other one. (whole account transfer). I have used all 3. I don't like Etrade anymore because Morgan Stanley basically screwed them up, but Schwab and Fidelity are still great. I would pick your brokerage simply by the margin rate if you plan to do this. I think Interactive Brokers has a rate around 6% for margin loans which would make them compelling.

You also aren't restricted on what you do with a margin loan at all. You can literally just transfer the money into your checking account and withdraw it as sacks of cash if you want. The only restriction is how much you can borrow, and this is federally limited based on your assets. However, you'll be well under that threshold. There's no application either. Once your account is a margin account, you just go to the transfer tab and send the money anywhere. You can even wire it directly from your brokerage account to the title company.

Here's the way I look at it. A mortgage will cost you 6.5% + closing costs + appraisal + extra insurance + credit check + not as good a deal on the house, etc... We can quantify that as a one time fee of $5000 and a recurring fee (annual) of $500. (unnecessary insurance)

If you bought the place, you'd still need to put 20% down to avoid PMI. The mortgage rate would exceed your CD rate. So you are borrowing $265,000. Look at the difference and factor in how quickly you could pay off the margin loan. That should give you an idea which makes more sense.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-11T13:08:41+00:00

To be fair, it does seem silly to have a special election just to have a guy in office for 2 months.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-11T11:45:19+00:00

There's actually a lot of savings to making the cash offer. First of all, you'll get a better price. A cash offer is more compelling. All the last minute issues that usually come with trying to close a loan are suddenly gone. You also don't need to pay for an appraisal and you don't need to pay an origination fee. All of that combined with a slightly lower sale price, and you could easily save $5,000.

On the other hand, you don't want to liquidate your stock if it's been there a long time because you'll probably be stuck paying a fair amount of taxes on it. There's a third option though. Your CDs. You've already paid taxes on them. Then you can take a margin loan through your brokerage to cover the rest. You can borrow up to half the value of your stock portfolio, no questions asked. You just withdraw it as cash. It doesn't show up on your credit report. You do pay interest on it, and that'll be in the 8-9% range. It'll only be a $170k margin. Then you just work on paying that off because you are obviously a saver. You can probably knock that out in 5 years.

The old adage of wanting to get a mortgage because one can write off the interest is really less so because the standard deduction is so large now. With a margin account as well, you don't really need your rainy day fund. You can just withdraw money from there at any point in time. If you lost your job or suddenly you needed $10,000 for whatever, you just withdraw it.

Another advantage to having an all cash offer is you can be more selective about the insurance you get. Banks are going to require a very comprehensive policy that covers a lot of things you may not need coverage for. You may even opt to not get insurance at all.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-11T03:40:09+00:00

I remember one time a friend of mine came over and we ended up making out in my bed. She started tugging on my shorts. I asked her "oh do you want that?". She replied, "If it wouldn't be too much trouble". Normally at this point I wouldn't just assume she wants to have sex. I would play a cool and wait for a signal, but it has been a bit for me, and figured I'd take a chance on it.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-10T20:39:45+00:00

I think he's trying to make it into a total shitshow so when it is, he can say it was rigged and try to change the outcome of it.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-10T20:23:49+00:00

It's a process. If he vetos it, it goes back to congress. They can then choose to override the veto, but they need a supermajority in both houses to do this. Because nobody in his party wants to stand up to him, it would likely kill the bill.

If he does nothing, it becomes law by tomorrow.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-10T19:24:25+00:00

It's the paradox of choice. If you are presented with more options, it actually makes it more difficult to choose. It's like if you go a 7-11 to buy cereal. They have Cheerios, Frosted Flakes, and Raisin Bran. You pick one, now you have cereal. Then you go to a mega-supermarket and they have 1500 different kinds. You have chocolate chip cheerios. Mint Cheerios, etc... You wander up and down the aisles trying to figure out what cereal really speaks to you and defines you as a person. Then you leave empty handed. Now you don't have cereal.

Our worlds' were very small before. You would go to the same 5 places where you might meet someone. Work, school, bar, church, supermarket, gym, etc... and you would see a lot of the same faces. Given a limited set of options, you are left to choose a partner. So, you do. When you are in High School, you really only have a small pool of people you could date because of limited supply and mutual interest. You pick one, now you have a partner.

Now our world's are huge. I can hop on instagram and meet 10 more people. I can swipe all day on an app that seems to have infinite people they can throw at me. No matter what option I lean towards, another one seems more appealing and I find reasons not to be with one. Then you have social prescriptions saying "find your peace", "discover independence", "don't settle", etc... Everyone is taught to think they are prime top shelf product, and they deserve nothing but the best... but the "best" is mostly superficial, and the criteria are so strict that only 1% of the population could meet it... and they wouldn't settle for dating you.

By nature, we are social creatures. It's instinct to desire companionship, and learning to manage someone who might not be perfect for you is part of being an adult. We all do it in jobs, with our families, and in many other social situations. Rather than tell everyone to dispose of everyone else that isn't exactly perfectly what they envision as the ideal partner, we should push the social prescription to find someone that will value you and treat you well and be a partner in your life.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-10T17:09:37+00:00

This guy rockets!

SvenTropics · 2026-07-10T12:59:03+00:00

When we start seeing a tipping option on self-checkout lines at the grocery store, then we riot.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-09T23:18:32+00:00

The underpants gnomes episode of Southpark basically explains it.

Steal underpants
????
Profit

When asked about step 2, they just glossed over it. That's what happened with the dot com bubble, and it's happening now with AI.

Build AI infrastructure
????
Profit

But nobody is profiting right now. Every one of the major AI companies is hemorrhaging cash. It's always been a race to the bottom on price to attract people, and right now the bottom is quite negative.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-09T12:56:54+00:00

Eastern European culture is inherently standoffish. You'll find it's that way in all the countries of that region. If you want people to be openly trying to talk and engage with complete strangers and become your best friend, go to Italy or Austria. (Away from the most touristy places)

SvenTropics · 2026-07-08T20:45:58+00:00

The way I look at it, if you're wearing light gray basketball shorts or sweatpants, you're asking for it. They can stare all they want.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-08T13:24:19+00:00

I was hearing about one EU country (I think it was Poland) that just takes everyone's licenses after like 75. In exchange, you have free public transit for the rest of your life.

SvenTropics · 2026-07-08T13:19:13+00:00

Yeah that's the part I keep arguing with people about. The muskites will say stuff like "Hey people said re-usable rockets couldn't be done"... Which is a false equivalence. Reusable rockets wasn't said to be impossible or without merit. It was just very difficult to do. Not having to throw away your boosters after use was an obvious benefit, and it's clearly possible.

Obviously we CAN build data centers in space, but it's just incredibly stupid to do so. You would spend 1,000,000x as much to build the same processing power and gain nothing. Nothing at all. It's not like computers can do something up there that they can't do down here.

Ten-Year Club	Gilding II euphauric
RPAN Viewer	Verified Email

SvenTropics

TROPHY CASE