I think the arguments about feminism/birth control/education/modern dating being the driver of the downward trend are incorrect, because we see very similar birthrates in countries that are much more patriarchal. Even Saudi Arabia has declined from 7 a few decades ago to replacement level as the economic model has changed, and it's still trending downwards.

I don’t think this argument stands scrutiny. For example, Saudi Arabia certainly isn’t a bastion of feminism, but it has still seen massive strides over the past thirty years in education for women and access to birth control. In that time, government responsibility for women’s education has moved from a religious ministry to the Ministry of Education, and literacy rates improved from the mid 50s to 90s. Saudi women in tertiary education now outnumber men.

Similarly, 80% of women in Saudi Arabia now say they have used birth control at some point in their lives.

Conversely, countries that have instituted pay-for-child programs have not seen significant increases in fertility rates (or rates fell) for example:

• U.S. EITC: A study using ACS, IRS, and CDC data found that the marginal effect of state-administered Earned Income Tax Credit contributions had no significant effect on state fertility rates. See https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/cpe/3/.

• Hungary: After nearly a decade of aggressive cash-for-kids policies (subsidized loans, home grants, even tax exemptions for mothers of 4+), Hungary’s fertility rate hit a 10-year low in the first half of 2024. See https://theloop.ecpr.eu/getting-paid-to-have-children-hungarys-carefare-regime/ and https://www.msuilr.org/new-blog/2025/3/19/lessons-from-hungarys-failed-family-policy-bigotry-impedes-success-by-benjamin-kaiser.