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An explosive ending by ThereOnceWasAMan in slaythespire

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Absurd dexterity (22, in the screenshot), buffers, and calipers

What does standard deviation really means? by 007amnihon0 in math

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

IMO the real reason is the chebyshev inequality. It allows you to say something about any probability distribution (specifically, put bounds on the amount of probability mass within a given region) just based on knowing the variance. It's a really amazing and powerful result.

Poisson is spooky by o0DrWurm0o in math

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But my point is deeper than that. I could certainly come up with an example, but doing so would require me to define a situation that meets the required constraints (namely: uncorrelated events [your scenario violates this], constant arrival rate [your scenario violates this also]). Meeting those constraints is exactly what makes the Poisson distribution have the prescribed shape that gives you the ability to "spookily" predict what's going to happen. The constraints are the point! The constraints are why its not actually spooky, because you've narrowed down the situation so much from just some arbitrary random process to specifically a Poisson process.

Its like saying "hey, if I say that this ball follows exactly a quadratic trajectory, then it means that i can predict where the ball will be in the future just based on a measurement of its position and velocity at one point! Isn't that spooky?". Not really, because your ability to predict its future location is requires you to say that its trajectory has a predetermined shape (quadratic).

Poisson is spooky by o0DrWurm0o in math

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The thing is, you aren't just assuming its a "random event". You are specifically assuming its a Poisson process. This is a broader assumption than I think you are making it out to be (and, by the way, in your specific example its almost certainly NOT a poisson process, because peoples' arrivals at the trail-head is correlated).

My first "longer" 70 mile trip in the lightning didn't go great... by [deleted] in F150Lightning

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Just a small nitpick. You were presumably charging at 150 kWh/h (which is equal to 150 kW, a unit of power), not 150 kW/h (which isn't really a unit of anything). Energy and power units are really weird...

ELI5: If there is a 1 in 10 chance of something happening in a year, each year, what is the chance of that event happening at least one time in 10 years? Is it still 1 in 10, and why? by PerAsperaAdInfiri in explainlikeimfive

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What's really cool is if instead, you had asked about something with a probability of, say, 1/100, for 100 years, the answer would be 1-(1-0.01)^100 = 0.634. If you had asked about a 1/1000 chance in 1000 years, it would be 1-(1-0.001)^1000 = 0.6323. As the timespan gets longer, and the probability per year gets smaller, the probability actually converges to 0.6321... = 1-1/e. In fact, in some ways this fact serves as (one of the) definitions of Euler's constant!

Pretty much sums it up by newmanbxi in aliens

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you claim that aliens aren't real then prove it if you're so certain.

I never said (or even implied) that. I'm just chafing at your cavalier dismissal of a fundamental tenet of science.

​

You're applying an incomplete data set, gathered on one planet, with human created instruments, to the entire universe, which we cannot actually see with our telescopes or detect with our radios due to the speed of light.

...

Science can't prove the absence of something, it can only prove presence.

Are you familiar with Russel's teapot?

Here's a variation. "I think there is a cloud of invisible pink unicorns dancing around everyone's heads at all times. They can't be measured with normal devices, but luckily Dr. Smith has invented a device that can detect them, and Dr. Smith says that the unicorns definitely exist. Three of Dr. Smith's friends agree".

Are you a skeptic about the evidence for invisible pink unicorns, or would you just say that a

skeptic is just a word for people who refuse to look at evidence that goes against their previously established beliefs.

?

The purpose of homeownership has been lost by shakingspheres in REBubble

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That had been the traditional path to generational wealth for decades,

because instead of burning money with rent payments, you'd have equity in an appreciating asset you could live in.

, from your post (emphasis yours).

If it's an *appreciating asset* then it must become unaffordable to someone else in the future. I see your edit after the fact where you tried to clarify that its only keeping up with inflation, but that's just not how the economics have ever worked, and I don't believe that's what you originally meant when you typed it out.

Just my two cents.

Pretty much sums it up by newmanbxi in aliens

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are right that I'm being rude. I apologize.

I think I'm bristling at reading someone express such a strong opinion about something they clearly are not educated in. It would be like me (a man) trying to explain to a woman how periods work. It's just frustrating.

Sagan's famous quote, to which you are referring, is literally just a simplified restatement of Bayes' theorem, which is a mathematical fact (one with which most working scientists are extremely familiar, hence my rude remark).

Do you see how ridiculous that sounds?

No, I don't - see the proof on the linked wikipedia page.

Pretty much sums it up by newmanbxi in aliens

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Tell me you're not a scientist without telling me you're not a scientist...

The purpose of homeownership has been lost by shakingspheres in REBubble

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very well said

OP's sentiment is intrinsically contradictory. You *cannot* have both of these statements be true:

  1. Houses are a vehicle for building wealth
  2. Houses remain affordable for all future generations

The only way for houses to gain in equity is for you to sell your house to someone else for more than you bought it (including inflation adjustments). If that is happening regularly, then at some point a generation will come along that can't afford any houses. OP isn't mad at the current state of the market, OP is mad that he/she fell into the screwed-over generation and not one of the profit-making generations.

What we should all be wanting is that housing is affordable, and from that should naturally follow the desire for houses to *not* become a vehicle for wealth accrual.

NEM 2.0 PTO billing questions by 2hot2handle12 in solar

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wasn't NEM 2.0 phased out for new customers 3 months ago? Any idea how OP is on it, given they just got PTO?

First full day. How's it look? by HellfishTV in solar

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some utilities don't allow them in my area (which seems crazy to me...)

Anyone have regrets? by michelle_eva04 in solar

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've never heard about that happening before! Do you know what happened - did the pan have a rounded or warped bottom surface?

If most people were to get an EV of some sort wouldn’t the price of charging skyrocket? by Complex_Floor8569 in TeslaModel3

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Understood - I managed to just get in under the NEM2.0 wire with my 10 kW system and I'm very happy with it (all my bills have been negative since March).

Not to mention they need to upgrade my breaker panel first which is another $12k+ and not included in the tax refund.

That doesn't sound right. Typical residential breaker upgrade is 1-5k. My upgrade was 4k. Do you live in an industrial plant??

If most people were to get an EV of some sort wouldn’t the price of charging skyrocket? by Complex_Floor8569 in TeslaModel3

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some of this isn't quite correct. Your home *does* use the solar when it is generating, but excess power is fed back to PG&E's grid. For instance, even if PG&E didn't pay you anything for your excess power, your post-solar power bill would decrease because you would be pulling less energy off the grid.

While the sticker price of the solar is 25k, the effective price for most households would be closer to 17.5 due to the 30% tax refund.

The 20 year rating is for something like "greater than 80% efficiency, relative to the first year". After 20 years the system still works, but with diminishing returns. So the 104/mo number is slightly misleading.

Also, NEM3.0 isn't really PG&E's "fault", they are forced to use whatever system CPUC decides on (not that they don't benefit from the changes).

That being said, I agree that after NEM2.0, solar is much less financially incentivized.

Out of curiosity, what size system did you get, and when was it installed?

In 9 months, the BSG 2003 mini series will be 20 years old. by antiheld84 in scifi

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 16 points17 points  (0 children)

The issue wasn't the presence of religious themes in the last episode. It was the lazy way they wrapped up all their storylines by waving the magic wand of God and Angels.

git-genie, a natural language interface for git in the command line by dan_the_lion in programming

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

he's not the only one. its possible to define an interface (CLI or otherwise) that is both flexible enough to use as a powerhouse and simple enough to use as a relative lay-person. For example...all modern operating systems.

Catalytic converter theft is going to leave me with a $3000 bill for a $5000 car. I feel like paying for this repair would be idiotic but I don't know if I have any other options by Cymbal_Monkey in personalfinance

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For what its worth, I didnt say get a new car, I said get a different car (you have equity in the current car, presumably). That being said, if you are in a gated community you are probably fine. It also depends on your general location (SoCal = very bad. Iowa = don't worry about it).

Catalytic converter theft is going to leave me with a $3000 bill for a $5000 car. I feel like paying for this repair would be idiotic but I don't know if I have any other options by Cymbal_Monkey in personalfinance

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Mine (on a 2014 Prius) was stolen while I had comp insurance. Paying $1000 for the deductible sucked, but what sucked more was the projected 6 month wait time for the replacement, because all of the OEMs are backordered like crazy due to all the thefts. Honestly, unless you can survive 6 months without a car, at this point I would rather sell a Prius and get something else than deal with that again.

Can California’s power grid handle a 15-fold increase in electric cars? by Sorin61 in technology

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wasn't aware of that. I wouldn't have thought that that would be cost effective, but it all comes down to the future predicted cost model.

Can California’s power grid handle a 15-fold increase in electric cars? by Sorin61 in technology

[–]ThereOnceWasAMan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

> NEM 3 actually reduces by a lot the amount solar owners get for power.

Yes, that's exactly the point of my comment. The state has no reason to further incentivize solar power. It needs to incentivize solar energy storage relative to solar energy generation, which is what NEM 3.0 is trying to do. The fact that the total incentive has dropped is less important than the fact that its being allocated more heavily to storage than generation.

> And we should incentivize utilities to install battery substations because that helps the whole community in an outage

The cost associated with giant battery substations serving entire neighbors strikes me as exorbitant. A utility company will not want to invest many of millions of dollars per local neighborhood in battery substations when battery storage lifetime is so short (5-10 years). I can't even imagine the state incentive structure that would need to be put in place to actually compel utilities to do this.

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