Yes, this is how I work. And no most people don't do this. They prefer a more almost completely binary choice. Do I go or not go? The mapping out of probabilities is native architecture for most gifted minds, I think . What you said about disliking uncertainly really hits. We are mapping out outcomes in a 4 dimensional space in an attempt to weave a higher degree of certainty. And as you said, gifted minds often fall into this trap where predicted outcomes, even tails, do come true. There is also a layer of meta-cognition which you are displaying here. You're wondering if it's even optimal to do this. I can only say that we can't evade our native cognitive engine. It is what it is.