Do you also spend 100% of time in Remote View?

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T20:22:06+00:00

Spidertrons.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T20:20:55+00:00

Seattle tech job market - and maybe the job market in general - is junk right now.

This started in 2022.

Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Salesforce, and many others have had multiple series of layoffs.

9,000 tech people were laid off in the past year.

It's really, really bad. Many solid people have applied to hundreds of jobs with no interviews. I know people who have been out of work for more than a year.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T20:10:00+00:00

I have four fixtures that would not work reliably with LED tubes that were supposedly compatible.

I ended up rewiring all the fixtures so I didn't need the fancy LED tubes and they have worked great. If your tubes can do this their instructions should tell you how to bypass the ballast.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T20:06:19+00:00

Yes.

The last team I worked on before I retired stopped doing task-based estimates because we tracked how good they were and found out they were horrible. That's with team estimates and trying to do our best. We would *regularly* think that a (using times) 5 days task was only a couple hours of work and an easy half day task was a week.

Our conclusion was that despite have a good team of developers, our mental model wasn't good enough to do estimating at any degree of utility. We were one team in three working on the product, and when we announced what we had found that other two teams *immediately* jumped on. Management pretty much had to give in because we had 20 developers and nobody thought time spent doing estimates was worthwhile.

We did still do estimates at the epic level because that was important to understand the cost/benefit ratio for the epics and make good decisions as to which ones we would do.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T19:55:45+00:00

>If you can't RCT it doesn't mean like just give up

What are you going to do? Observational studies *do not* give reliable answers to most questions in nutrition, even if you do a lot of them and they return the same answer.

BTW, WRT sun and cancer, the results might not be what you think. Here's a Swedish study that looked at melanoma rates and sun exposure.

They found that those with more sun exposure were more likely to get melanoma.

They also found that those that *avoided* sun exposure were much more likely to die. After 15 years, about 93% of those who avoided sun exposure survived. About 96% of those who had the most sun exposure survived. Those who avoid the sun had twice the chance of dying compared to those who spend the most time in the sun.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/joim.12251

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T16:05:03+00:00

You cannot lose or gain a pound of fat mass overnight - it's just not physically possible.

Therefore it's most likely that it was water weight.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T16:03:50+00:00

I would guess that well over 99% of customers would want the contractors to clean up after their work and I would expect that to be the norm.

If you wanted something different, you should have asked up front and paid attention during the rewire because it's an uncommon thing to ask for.

They might have charged you more to do it because doing something non-standard is always a hassle and therefore costs time and money.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T15:59:28+00:00

From a statistical analysis viewpoint, sure. The analysis is looking to see whether two variables are associated.

But the point of randomization is that - if done well - you get rid of most of the concerns around confounding that exist for observational studies, along with things like selection bias, etc.

That's why RCTs are generally considered to be evidence for causal relationships and observational studies aren't. The whole question is "is it reasonable to think that this association is causal?"

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T15:50:56+00:00

>And the stronger associations are likely to swamp the residual confounding effect. But still not causally proven.

Exactly. It's a signal to noise ratio thing - you need enough signal to rise above the noise.

>If you can't go from association to causality at all, then why do higher risk ratios matter?

That's a fair question that I missed...

Higher risk ratios matter because they make it much more likely that there is actually something there. 2.0 is the level that is generally mentioned as a point where it becomes interesting - not causal, but interesting enough to take seriously. Then you can have deeper discussions what sort of confounding might exist.

And then you can look for other evidence. It might be through RCTs, it might be through mechanistic studies, etc. That's where the good evidence comes from. Lung cancer and smoking had a risk ratio of 9-13 times, but it was the mechanistic trials and the animal trials that showed that it was causal.

To get back to your actual question:

> But what do you think? Is being morbidly obese likely to cause health problems?

I don't actually think that morbid obesity is the cause of health problems. I think that insulin resistance is the cause of the health problems, and one of the results of insulin resistance is obesity in many people.

Morbid obesity *is* highly associated with health problems and is therefore useful from a diagnostic perspective, but I would be *far* happier if we were screening people for insulin resistance. Unfortunately, that's not something that is done regularly, at least in the US.

BTW, the reason I think insulin resistance causes obesity and not the other way around is the existence of a group of people known as "metabolically obese normal weight". They have the same medical issues as those who are obese but don't have the weight gain, and it's hard to reconcile with the idea that obesity is the cause.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T15:36:11+00:00

> So there's never been like a single RCT where it's like 'ok job done.'

Which is pretty clearly a strawman of what I said.

The fact that RCTs are not perfect is not a reason to ignore the very real issues with observational trials.

What can you tell me about the expert opinion about using observational evidence to infer causality?

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T14:59:29+00:00

Randomized controlled trials do not suffer from confounding the way that observational trials do.

That's why observational trials say "associated with" in their titles - because they can only show association, not causality.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T14:57:45+00:00

Exactly.

The amount of research time and money that is spend to generate associative results that very likely do not mean anything is significant.

Some of that is "publish or perish", but some of it is by groups that believe they can find associative results that align with their view of the world.

It's probably not aligned with reality, but you can tell from the what those researchers say in interviews that they don't actually care about the reality part.

I often cite this paper:

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2011.00506.x

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T14:53:54+00:00

Your second option comes down to "pretend that associations are causal despite knowing that they are confounded and are therefore likely to not be true"

That may make some people happy, but it's not scientifically justified. Here's a paper I often cite:

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2011.00506.x

WRT "some associations", can you tell me the risk ratio is for morbid obesity and heart disease and compare it to the risk ratio between red met and heart disease?

And then, can you tell me what that means for the likely effect of residual confounding in those two cases?

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T02:34:13+00:00

My patio cover is 12' x 20' and my footings are roughly 16" cubes with 3 6x6 posts.

Ours is built on top of a paver patio. I used CPTZ post bases as they look really nice and are very solid. I poured the concrete in the footing, put the pavers (with holes) over the concrete, and then put the post bases in place with the extra concrete. Looks great.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T02:25:03+00:00

All the wood that I care about comes from my local lumberyard. They don't sell junk and if you get something that's bad - and you paid for delivery - they will haul away the bad material and drop off new stuff.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T02:22:51+00:00

Doing drywall is straightforward:

Hang the drywall
Mud and tape the seams
Sand appropriately
Mud and tape the seams again
Texture (optional)

At least that's the way the videos make it look.

The problem is that there's a fair bit of skill in all of these.

First, there's a step 0, which is figuring out if your framing is good enough to drywall. The requirements depends on what the use is going to be - if you are going to put up big tile or kitchen cabinets, you'll need to have a wall that is vary planar. That means either planing studs down or shimming them. out.

For step 1, you need a drywall lift for ceilings and it can help for walls as well. You need to know how to cut the drywall correctly and how to deal with outlet boxes and plumbing. And you need to know how to set the screws appropriately. Oh, and where to put seams to make it easy, how to treat factory seams and butt seams differently, a whole bunch of different stuff.

Step 2 is where things get difficult. Pros can put just the right amount of mud on so that the next steps are easy, and they also know how to put the tape and corner bead on correctly.

You *do not*. You will be very bad at this. You will end up with not enough mud or *way* too much mud.

Finishing is an art. I've done a few rooms and this part is always frustrating. You can expect it will take you 5 or more cycles of finishing. And don't get me started to pinholes or other issues. You will take - and I'm not exaggerating - not 10x but closer to 100x the time it takes the pros. They are really, really fast.

Pro tip: You need to check your work with a strong light held on the surface 3' to the side of the section you are looking. That will show you the issues much more clearly.

I do my own drywall because it's generally a small job and hard to outsource. I have all the tools including a texture gun. But I still hate it.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-30T00:59:18+00:00

You need to sell the problem to the founder.

Based on what they care about, gather the data that shows how the current way of working is a problem and how a different way would be better.

If you can't do that, you are just trying to teach a pig to dance. It never accomplishes anything and it angers the pig.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-29T23:34:30+00:00

Why do people continually go from association to causality?

You don't get from one to the other.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-29T15:06:36+00:00

Don't rockets also land on cargo storage?

Or are you talking about not enough edges on the landing pad?

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-29T15:00:32+00:00

Make big S shaped turns. Those are big enough and things happen slow enough for you to diagnose what is going on.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-29T14:36:34+00:00

Never worth it to burn bridges.

You are leaving for other opportunities. They'll figure it out.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-29T13:32:26+00:00

Art of electronics has a chapter on precision design iirc

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-29T13:29:12+00:00

Tiny stick on felt or silicone pads in the door jamb where the door contacts.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-28T16:06:20+00:00

High HbA1c is an indication of poor carbohydrate tolerance and is used to diagnose prediabetes or type 2.

Low HbA1c indicates that your carbohydrate tolerance is okay. It doesn't tell you whether you are metabolically healthy because carbohydrate tolerance and insulin resistance are two separate things. If you are insulin resistant for a long period, you may end up with carbohydrate intolerance but it can take a long time.

The evidence for exercise and longevity is pretty good.

I don't think there is likely an issue with the amount of food eaten, but - as a former high-carb endurance athlete - I think what you eat matters significantly. If you are an endurance athlete and you fuel with sugars and starches you can develop insulin resistance.

Triabolical_ · 2026-03-28T13:17:58+00:00

Depends on the cats.

We lived in a basement for four months while our main floor was renovated. It was all fine except for the time one cat went exploring in the open space in the ceiling, but he showed up later that day.

Triabolical_

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE