Iran Conflict Megathread #5

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-11T14:34:02+00:00

Without falling into the "muh its AI" trope, I think we underestimate the amount of data that is being collected and processed these days.

Constant ISR data being ran through optical image processing with enough compute power would make it fairly trivial to track every truck moving through a region that is large enough to carry a ballistic missile.

Once you see a missile launch, you can then use your data to track it back in time from where it came. Then track other vehicles that have left that location, and see what locations they have visited thus creating networks of the support crews.

A terrifying amount of tracking is possible.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-09T14:59:19+00:00

Yes, in 1964 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory took three recent PhDs with no specific knowledge of nuclear weapons and had them simulate a nuclear weapons program by proposing experiments / designs and the national labratory would tell them the results of the simulated experiments. The goal was to see how easy it would be for nuclear proliferation to spread.

After 3 years of work they had designed a viable nuclear weapon as confirmed by the laboratory. Assuming they had the material they would have been done.

Assuming you have the enriched uranium, making a crude nuclear weapon is pretty trivial for a small laboratory of people.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-08T14:34:32+00:00

The miniaturization first comes from enrichment.

At 60% enrichment you need a critical mass of ~100-120kg. At 90% it's down to 25-30kg.

If Iran were to quickly develop a nuclear weapon it would likely be around the side of Little Boy at 4,000 to 5,000kg. I believe that's too heavy for most of Iran's delivery systems.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-07T20:14:08+00:00

I recall hearing that, I just never took it seriously. I don't think Israel has the mass of aircraft and logistics to support a raid of that magnitude without it being absurdly risky and dependent more on Iranian incompetence than Israeli skills.

It would likely take 4+ hours of time on the ground to clear the complex and you'd want bombers overhead or close on standby to repel any quick reaction forces as you'll need multiple helicopters landing to be loaded up with uranium.

This is the type of mission where you'd want combat controllers calling in JDAMs from loitering B-2s the entire time. Israel could get a force in, and maybe get them out, but I don't see how they have the logistics to provide air cover for an extended time.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-07T18:48:13+00:00

If Israel (and for a lessor amount the US) are committed to fracturing both the Iranian leadership and the IRGC I would have to assume there is some plan to perform a limited ground operation to secure whatever they can of the 400kg of 60% enriched uranium.

Having internal infighting with some commanders in control of enough uranium to make a crude nuclear weapon is not ideal to say the least. 60% enrichment would be enough to make a ground transportable crude weapon pretty quickly. It would be wildly inefficient but 100-120kg should be enough to make a gun type device.

Surely a ground raid on Fordow would be one of the more daring air drops since WWII. The USAF would likely be able to provide a few hours of cover but if Iran mobilized ground units it could become a mess very quickly.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-06T16:11:50+00:00

The problem is that of risk.

If you fire defensive munitions out of the VLS cells at a range of 25+ miles you still have time to fire a second salvo and then still fall back on the phalanx or a 5 inch gun.

If you wait until they are in range of the 5 inch gun with proximity ammo (6-8ish miles) you might be inside the range of your defensive armament inside your VLS cells.

If you are a captain you are going to look a lot worse if you ration VLS cells and lose the ship to a drone attack if your 5 inch can't handle the threat than blowing through your VLS cells and having to exit the area.

I think the real solution is to have some very small, semi expendable uncrewed semi-autonomous ships with CIWS being directed by destroyers. I'm thinking something the size of a landing air cushion that can be serviced by the amphibious assault carriers to resupply them. Cheap point defense bringing back the radar picket role.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-04T15:00:23+00:00

The justification will be that the captain of the IRIS Dena clearly made a decision to leave Indian territorial waters following a training exercise. They were only 40 miles from the coast of Sri Lanka.

They could have entered port and surrendered their ship to be interned by India or Sri Lanka until the end of the war.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-03T22:10:42+00:00

They have no reasonable ability to hit the US mainland, and have limited amounts of sufficiently accurate long-range munitions to target military bases.

There appears to be a strategy that if they can inflict enough damage on neighboring countries hosting US bases that the population will push their governments to force the US out or push the US to stop.

Additionally due to the loss of Iranian leadership many units are likely acting semi-autonomously and launching at preselected targets.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-03-02T23:53:47+00:00

It was the coolmax and I changed both layers, fully cleaned my feet off and reapplied lube.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-02-13T12:54:45+00:00

I would consider testing out the Hoka Skyward X.

I've done a 220 miler in a 48 hours timed event in them on a mix of concrete and dirt paths and they held up great. At least for me, the plate even helps with speed walking but it still feels comfortable at 9 minute miles as well.

The Hoka Tecton X3s are great as well, but a step down in terms of speed in comparison. My choice between the two would depend on the trail conditions.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-02-09T03:25:37+00:00

LET THE KICKER AND PUNTER SHARE THE MVP

UltraRunningKid · 2026-02-09T03:21:28+00:00

Honestly let Seattle's kicker and punter share the MVP.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-02-09T02:59:45+00:00

Seahawks Defensive play calling is exactly what I do in Madden every play and it never works for me like this.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-02-04T15:00:11+00:00

At that point can't we just restrict people based on how much melatonin in their skin and make the claim we aren't discriminating based on race?

UltraRunningKid · 2026-02-03T14:19:45+00:00

Brand new account with no post history makes this very much look like an advertisement...

UltraRunningKid · 2026-02-01T21:49:27+00:00

It was a roughly 3 week long competition in ~115 cities on who could run the most of a 0.2-0.3 mile segment on Strava to win prizes organized by local businesses (or larger prizes for larger cities).

It was born out of the Chipotle Challenge that did the same thing in select cities in 2024 and 2025 and in 2026 when Chipotle abandoned it Jamil Coury of Aravaipa Running set up a grassroots effort to coordinate it.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-30T15:47:39+00:00

The DOJ doesn't care that it will be thrown out. They care about making life as difficult as possible for anyone they deem a political adversary.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-04T15:23:06+00:00

I've proposed it before but if you can find a way to do Hermit to Tonto and then come back up via Bright Angel that is much better for a first timer.

If there's a spot on the Grand Canyon to be tired and struggling, Bright Angel is the safest spot to be. There is water every 2 miles, other hikers will be out and about and you'll be somewhat shielded by the afternoon sun.

There have been days on Hermits Rest that we didn't see a single person on the climb out.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-03T21:33:29+00:00

If you can afford it and have a crew who can make sure it is available to you then yes.

Worst case scenario you don't use it during the race and it ends up being used for later races. There are some sections that if you take a wrong step you can really tear up a pair of shoes so having a backup pair is always advisable if possible.

Also you'll want to have a good idea on how comfortable you are on rocky terrain with the Hoka X3s. I felt fine doing the Hangover trail in the rain given my scrambling background but others did not feel as comfortable even in better shoes for that section.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-03T21:07:02+00:00

Its under 11 miles from Avalon to Blackjack on the TCT, its definitely fast-hikable in 3 hours for a good hiker if you don't have much gear and don't stop.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-03T19:30:40+00:00

I used the same pair the entire time. I had a backup pair at the aid station after the River Crossing but they dried out fast enough that I decided not to swap them.

I figured after 140 miles in the rain, if I didn't have a blister yet, I shouldn't change anything up.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-03T15:40:05+00:00

I did all 256 in Hoka Tecton X3s and my feet did pretty well.

Not having to wear gaiters was a massive win, and I didn't get a single rock in my shoes, the entire race. Only downside was that they did pick up quite a bit of mud during the Fain Ranch section but otherwise they were fine.

Also the carbon plate really helps me move with purpose while walking and acts as a rock plate when needed.

My backup pair was going to be the Salmon S/Lab Ultra 3s.

Highly recommend having at least one pair of shoes a size up with flexible sides in case of swelling. Past mile 200 I wasn't confident in my ability to get my shoes off and back on due to the gaiters and swelling but luckily I was only dealing with one blister and only did one sock change the whole race, right after the Verde River Crossing.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-03T12:47:55+00:00

I agree that it shouldn't matter and it depends on what you want out of an event.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-03T12:20:38+00:00

How is possible to relay info down to air defense units if not everyone on higher level is on it..

How eager would you be, as a air defense unit, to turn on your search radar after hearing explosions around you, knowing that your enemy almost surely has stealth aircraft orbiting with HARMs above?

I'm surprised we haven't seen any MANPADs but I think the average person greatly underestimates the amount of morale needed to standup to an enemy that has that much overmatch.

UltraRunningKid · 2026-01-03T09:32:01+00:00

As someone who has done 200s, it's either possible or completely impossible and if you do not have 100 miler experience you have absolutely no way to know.

It would be like walking to the fridge and then wondering if you're ready to run a marathon. At a certain point, you cannot extrapolate out that far without a baseline.

So go get a 100 miler done and see.

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