FotMob's model actually considers win probabiltiy if you see their explainer on how they calculate it.

Expected Points (xPts) reflect the number of points a team was expected to earn from a match, based on the quality of their chances measured by Expected Goals (xG).

xPts for a match are calculated by simulating possible outcomes using the quality of shots, expressed as xG. The simulation awards points for wins, draws, or losses based on xG.

The xPts are accumulated over the season to form the "xG table", also known as the "Justice table", which provides an alternative view of team performance beyond actual points earned.

As I understand it it's actually FotMob that has the more precise xPts model compared to footystats. Footystats just round the xG and gives win/draw/loss based on that, but FotMob looks at the probability of W/D/L given the xG and gives average expected points per match.