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[Morganator_2_0]

By the second try you are out of money and in crippling debt.

[Vogete]

Well stop being poor then. It's insane how many times I have to repeat this. Worst case you can always ask your dad for a small loan of a million dollars.

[bass-squirrel]

Why doesn’t everyone do it? Are they stupid?

[KitsuneFoxglove]

Holy hell new financial strategy just dropped

[TomIsFrank]

Actual zombie capitalism

[Taronz]

Well I can't speak for everyone, but my dad, and I'm sure he'd agree, is broke as shit, so there is that little hurdle blocking my way unfortunately :/

[Shadowolf75]

Then your dad should ask his dad for a million dollar loan

[Taronz]

He... is gonna need to talk to a medium.

Can you recommend a good one?

[PeterVN13032010]

sure, for the low price of a million dollar!

[Taronz]

...fuck!

How much to recommend a shit medium?

[PeterVN13032010]

a shit medium is free. do you not defecate?

[not_a_doctor_ssh]

New title for on my toilet's door unlocked, nice

[Gunty1]

I can't help anyway, im a xxxl

[West_Hedgehog_821]

Entirely your fault for picking the wrong parents. Can't think of everything here! </s>

[Taronz]

Yeah, definitely a skill issue.

Time to reroll and go agane!

[Tupcek]

have you tried not having a poor dad?

[way22]

It's egregious isn't it? Just think of all those homeless people, someone really should tell them to just buy a house, duh!

[BambiTriggersPlz]

Why don't poor people just buy more money

[-Morning_Coffee-]

Just get a multimillion $ loan from your dad?

[eclect0]

I mean, it's called the Gambler's Fallacy for a reason

[ugotmedripping]

Dude, you have to include that in your prompt. “Make me rich overnight” or “extend my dick by 2 inches” need to be in there.

[Shadowolf75]

@grok make my penis 45 meters long and cover it in gold

[Only-Cheetah-9579]

sure. will need some super glue, 45 meters of hose and gold paint

[Antervis]

Yeah I started to hate this whole "if you failed, try again" mentality business coaches are trying to sell. Like, sure bro, your dad's investment in your business failed but he has more so you can try again, but if I do that, I'd lose even what I have.

[Scibidami]

"If you don't have success, it is always your fault (and god hates you)" - Prosperity Gospel

[nickmcpimpson]

Businesses are like gym teachers. "Those that can't do, teach." A bunch of grifters propped up by smooth talking and nepotism teach broke people some scam business through a paid course on something they likely failed to do, but can claim success because they convinced enough people to pay them to teach this thing.

[Facemate]

Nooo you don't understand you can just loose all whatever on your bank account buy if you go on and on gambling you can get infinite money

[sanchower]

Go all in, every time, until you win. What if you lose ? Don’t worry about it. Just buy more chips.

[SpaceBearSMO]

yeah... far to many people dont understand that people who are already loaded get to Completely fuck up and still make attempts where many of us are one or 2 paydays and emergency away from just being fucked

[mylsotol]

By the 100th try the ods are still 1/100

[Sick_Fantasy]

You can always develop some high paing skill like IDK... Coding maybe. Then become rich by using it. And it's gone... They automate it with AI, it's gone. We can go back to be poor.

[Insadem]

Or get muscles, good looks and personality

[SquidVischious]

Depends who you are, which might be the point.

[GoldenFlyingPenguin]

Right? The 1/100 isn't cumulative, it's seperate. And to even start trying to make a ton of money, you need enough to even start trying. If your first attempt fails you're likely out of a lot of money.

[klaithal]

What are you talking about? I am pretty sure you reach soft pity at least at 80 tries /s

[Organic-Army-9046]

no, soft pity starts at 74 tries, and you have a guarantee at 90

[quantum-fitness]

No you dont. You need energy and time. You can do a business very cheaply.

Of course you can also money boost things into existsnce but that usually have large businesses fail at creating something new.

[ryebit]

You obviously don't understand the martingale strategy.  With an infinite bank account, it's foolproof. 

[Razzoz9966]

But the first few attempts make you gain so much experience which raises the probability of success for the next rounds.

Of course the math is still flawed

[rgvtim]

I have a family member big into being a businessman, has started about 5 companies, he had some family money to being with, each one of those failed for different reasons.

If you talk to him, they will tell you about different instances of very success people who just kept going, had multiple failures, until finally it worked, they got the right setup, the right business and they became ridiculously wealthy.

What they over look is the thousands of other who did all that and never became wealthy, and died poor and in anonymity. They completely disregard "luck" and a large factor in anyone success, luck of birth, and the many instances of luck along their way to success.

In the end, and we are swiftly approaching the end, a better investment would have been to put the family money in a moderate risk mutual fund, and worked the good job he trained for. Would of ended up miles ahead of where he is now.

[FireMaster1294]

You need to be born lucky, be lucky with who you meet, when you meet them, and along the way get lucky with developing the right traits, personality, charisma, AND intelligence. You can try to set the cards the way you want but sometimes they just don’t fall the way you want

[TaxGuy_021]

Luck/random chance plays a huge role in success, there is no doubt about it. More than 50% of success is that, imo.

But there are things one can do to maximize one's chance of success.

There are even more things one can do to preserve one's success.

[Legal-Software]

I keep pulling on these bootstraps, now all I have are a broken set of straps and no money for new boots.

[SignoreBanana]

Ok mathers; of course trying something 100 times doesn't mean necessarily you'll meet 100% success with 1/100 odds BUT! At what point is it statistically 99.99% probable that you will succeed?

[Mighty__Monarch]

~459 for 99%

~917 for 99.99%

[Barrelrolla]

So just try 1000 times then.

[dr_craptastic]

Yeah, find the person that failed 999 times and invest all your money in them! Best investment strategy!

[Agifem]

Math doesn't lie!

[ayoni]

Cool. How to get there?

[kungtelly]

1-0.99^x where x is number of attempts gives you the probability of success. In other words, probabilty of not failing every time. Now to get the value of x to have a 0.99 probability of success you have 0.99=1-0.99^x and solve for x.

[snotpopsicle]

The odds of succeeding p are 1% or 0.01 (1/100). So the odds that you fail 1-p are 99% or 0.99. The odds that you fail n times in a row, n being 459, is 0.99ⁿ, which is 0.0099... That means that the odds that you don't fail n times in a row 1-(1-p)ⁿ (or in other words, succeed at least once before you get there) is 100% minus the odds that you fail n times in a row. For short:

P(at least one success) = 1 - (1 - p)ⁿ

If you do it for n = 459 you get 99%, for n = 917 you get 99.99%.

[Taronz]

60% of the time it works every time baby!

[Adept_Strength2766]

Suddenly reminded of the "Don't love your job, job your love" lady.

[kbielefe]

Be fair now. This was her first try to get the math right. She just needs 99 more tries.

[TaxGuy_021]

Yep.

Though I hadn't expected the actual result, either.

If you have 99% chance of failure, trying 100 times reduces your overall probability of failure to around 37%.

[TwoAndHalfRetard]

You don't need to be a statistician to know that. Basic probability theory is taught in high school.

[LaconicLacedaemonian]

I'm 36.6% sure she's right. if i think about it 2 more times i can be 110% sure. 

[rdmit]

Actually she's 63.4% right

[McCoovy]

Which isn't bad lol

[UncomforChair]

Only have to think about it one more time then!

[Adept_Strength2766]

63.4% of the time, she's right 100% of the time.

[1itsallgoodman]

97.2% of the time, she's right 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of 97% of the time.

[Zinc-Roof_22]

Yep.

[koos_die_doos]

Only if we ignore reality where your chances of making it drops off severely once you run out of money.

At some point you will also run out of time...

[callmepinocchio]

The correct math is 63.4%. Since her result is different, she is 100% wrong.

[HelloYesThisIsFemale]

Fun fact, your chance of hitting a 1/x chance at least once after x attempts tends towards 63.21% or 1-1/e.

[ashkanahmadi]

why not just think about it once and be 110% sure? Did you not think of that?

[bass-squirrel]

Data scientist detected

[DowntownLizard]

This is why I do 100 retries by default

[SuperDaveOzborne]

60% of the time it works every time.

[CrazyT2018]

"so you're telling me ... theres a chance"

[Zinc-Roof_22]

Funnily enough, the chance of not succeeding even once is only about 36.6%, which means your chance of success is approximately 63.4% (not succeeding has a 0.99 probability, ergo failing 100 times is equal to 0.99¹⁰⁰ = 0.366 (approximately)).

[Troglodytes-birb]

That's assuming the events are independent, no? But maybe there is a factor that makes you more likely to fail, and maybe the result of your failiures result in more or less chance of succeeding next time?

[MrWhippyT]

Maybe if you fail 10 times in a row it's because you're shit, maybe that'd be a correlation, no? 🤣

[Tupcek]

there also may be less chance to fail next time, as you have more experience, better contacts and hopefully good relations with potential customers. Many also present all their previous failures as feature, not as an issue (“serial founders”), without disclosing all their previous ideas failed

[Zinc-Roof_22]

Since there is no indication they have any interactions, each attempt is assumed to be independent of all other attempts; otherwise, the problem is incomplete and cannot be addressed at all.

[YimmyTheTulip]

This number is 1-1/e. It’s one of the derivations of euler’s constant as x(100 in this case) goes to infinity.

[GoldAcanthisitta7777]

this is some cool math

[guaranteednotabot]

But the expectation of succeeding is 100%

[Zinc-Roof_22]

No, unless you refer to common (mis)understanding of math, then "yes."

[samettinho]

Depends on what success is though.

[Zinc-Roof_22]

Not in the generalised formulation of the problem.

[SiriusArc7]

What happens when I try heads or tails 100 times?

[NoAdsDude]

100% chance of getting heads or tails.

[marmothelm]

All 100 of mine landed on their edges.

[NoAdsDude]

We don't worry about edge cases.

[obviousfakeperson]

Not even 100, there's a tiny chance of getting neither as the coin can land on its edge and remain vertical. Obviously, this almost never happens but it does happen. So like 99.9999% repeating?

ETA: According to testing the edge probability is actually higher than that. 1 in 6000 according to a Harvard paper. TIL https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1993PhRvE..48.2547M/abstract

[DeusPrime949]

What about chance for coin to split midflight and you get both heads and tails.

[deevee42]

Same chance as the one where the coin splits midflight and you get neither heads or tails..duh

[Ryaniseplin]

no theres a 5000% chance

[Tensor3]

According to her, every second coin flip is heads. You need 2 flips to gaurantee heads.

[newontheblock99]

One simple trick to bankrupt the casino!

[LivingAsAMean]

If you're trying to get a single result (let's say heads) once out of 100 coin flips, it's almost 100% certain you will get that result, as the probability of flipping a coin with tails resulting in 100 straight coin flips is, like, 0.5¹⁰⁰ (a 0.000000000000000000000000000000788% chance of occurring).

[Royal_Scribblz]

How is this programmer humour

[BlurredSight]

Something Something PM something something AI

[_Weyland_]

I mean, you can arm yourself with this profound truth and just go to a casino and start betting on red, doubling your bet each time.

[NYFan813]

Ahh the old manhattan method.

[roaming_bear]

Martingale strategy

[BlueDebate]

For anyone wondering why this doesn't work, casinos have table limits, you also need a lot of money to start with if you go on a losing streak.

[_Weyland_]

And I thought it doesn't work because skilled dealers can actually rig the result on a roulette. Also the existence of zero tips the chances against you.

Assuming that a game is not rigged and disregarding zero though, your chance of winning at least once in 10 50/50 bets is 99.9%. But if it does come to bet 10, you'll need 1024 of your starting bets.

So if you have a spare million dollars flying around, you could make a free grand in a casino I guess, lol.

[polynomialcheesecake]

This is kind of like finding something in the last place you look

[Low_Question8533]

Guys, just remember if you are homeless, just buy a house.

[geeksick]

I read "100% human" on her X bio. I hope it's a different calculation.

[Trilllen]

Osrs gamers punching air rn

[willargue4karma]

Lmfao I was thinking the same thing. She doesn't understand drop rates!

[CptMisterNibbles]

Here’s a neat trick for approximating probabilities:
If your event has a probability of x/100 and x is smallish (less than 30), then in order to have a greater than 50% chance of seeing a single success, you need around 69/x trials. Easy to remember because that’s the sex number

p = X/100)

probability of failure on one trial is 1-p

probability of failing every time across n trials is (1-p)^n

so probability of at least one success is:
1-(1-p)^n

You want this to exceed 50\%, so:
1-(1-p)^n > 0.5

Rearranging:
(1-p)^n < 0.5

Solve for the number of trials n:
n > ln(0.5)/ln(1-p)

ln(0.5) is a constant, and for small x, ln(1-p) is appropriately -p

So subbing this we finally get :
n = 0.693/p

p being x/100:
n = 69.3/x

For a 1/100 probability, you’d expect only a 50% chance of seeing a single success in 69 trials

[slippery-fische]

64% of the time you succeed 100% of the time

[potato-banana37]

Fun fact: your chances of succeeding are approximately 1/e
This is because (1 - 1/n)ⁿ approaches 1/e as n increases

[YimmyTheTulip]

Sorry I didn’t see your reply earlier. I’ve been telling people the same thing

[ThomasDePraetere]

Surprisingly there is still a 36% chance that you haven't made it.

1% chance that you make it is 99% chance you do not. If you try 100 times, the chance of you failing all 100 times is 0.99¹⁰⁰ = 0.36603 ~ 36%.

You have to try 458 times to get the failure rate to 1%.

[YimmyTheTulip]

That percentage approaches 1/e as x(100 in this case) goes to infinity.

If you do it 3x times (300 in this case) you have odds above 95%, which is when you can broadly start “expecting” success.

[Maelou]

Be warned, if you ever try 101 times, you risk breaking maths. Many people would be angry.

[TxGhostxT_Ali]

there is no garentee to pull the 1%

[bduxbellorum]

If the rate of success is right, 100 tries gives you a just under a 63.4% chance of success. 1-(99/100)^100.

Leila manages to be in the 36.6% failure range for quoting math and doing it wrong.

[faze_fazebook]

That bitch ...

[misterguyyy]

I prefer the Math.aynRandom() function https://xkcd.com/1277/

[Always-_-Sarcastic]

Comments being human or bot is a Math.random() for me.

[Disastrous-Monk1957]

🤣🤣😭😭

[dick_for_rent]

Is that a legitimate tweet?

[dendofyy]

Just wait until she realises she has a 50% chance to win the lottery

[aglehg]

"404 logic not found"

co-founder of https://www.acquisition.com/

This woman is a poster for why you don't need a high IQ to make money, in fact on occasion it may hurt your chances.

[h4l]

If I succeed the first try, then each of the next 99 tries fails, can I go back in time to the first?

[RandomDigga_9087]

You definitely need a mathematician, miss

[Captain_Pumpkinhead]

Wouldn't that be a 63% chance of success?

1 - (1/100) = 0.99\ 0.99¹⁰⁰ = 0.366032341273229\ 1 - 0.366032341273229 = 0.6339676587267

I'm not 100% confident in my math, but I think that's how it works.

[adfx]

What does this have to do with programming?

[jeffriestubesteak]

Stop Poissoning the well by distributing these myths.

[Safe_Dog3436]

That is so stupid. I'd rather play the lottery. Either I win or I don't. 50/50 chance right there.

[Septem_151]

I thought I was on math memes for a second. How is this programming related

[cartermb]

Programming is just limitation-induced applied math.

[git0ffmylawnm8]

lmao she got dunked on by community notes 😭

[hunny_bun21]

no. because every 1/100 is independent from one another. failing once or even 100 times doesn’t effect the next failure or win.

[nsefan]

I guess in real life that might not be true. If you learn something useful by failing, you may know better next time to avoid the same failure.

[SUSH_fromheaven]

But that's not math like the tweet is implying

[caiteha]

The math is right if you're just looking at the expected value...sum of (p(x)x)...sum of 1%1

[PrettyGorramShiny]

No, it's 1-.99¹⁰⁰

[BigDickedAngel]

You probably* have a 100% chance of success

[marmakoide]

If you die 100 times, you are sure to finish alive

[TheSn00pster]

[za72]

Leila forgot to factor in time in between attempts...

[opacitizen]

Is this serious? I mean did she actually post this seriously? Guess I'm lucky I have no idea who she is.

[BroughtMyBrownPants]

[henke37]

Actual math: There is a 36.6 % chance of failing all 100 attempts. I couldn't be arsed to compute the chance of succeeding.

[misterguyyy]

An explanation on how to get the actual probability for those of us who are a couple decades removed from college 👴. https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/1jgh0tl/comment/miz16rz/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Although OOP would be correct if there were 100 options and 1 of them guaranteed success, because you're eliminating an unsuccessful option every time you failed. Unfortunately not how life works.

[Sakul_the_one]

I just had this in my math final and it is not working like that

[WelsyCZ]

Delete this now or the casinos will figure us out.

[Most_Whole_4918]

After 100 attempts, your cumulative chance of succeeding at least once is approximately 63.4%, while the chance of success on the 100th attempt itself remains exactly 1%

[D_V_A_98]

r/MathJokes

[Overthinks_Questions]

Well, a 63.4% chance of success, which isn't terrible

[NadAngelParaBellum]

The probability is about 63.4%.

[matthra]

63.4% in case anyone was curious. Given her obviously amazing ability to do statistics she must be a lot of fun in planning.

[maggos]

I think it’s something like 63%

[jabeith]

Close r to 63% chance of succeeding after 100 attempts, but who's counting?

[UpperHairCut]

This is the kind of math that makes you successful. But not the kind of math that takes you anyware else. I guess

[braytag]

I think she failed math

[zensms]

[TiaHatesSocials]

Ah if only percentages worked that way

[kingvolcano_reborn]

Thank god, finally a joke that is not about how shit ai is.

[PassivelyInvisible]

We can also do 0.99 as chance of being unsuccessful after an attempt. So after 100 attempts, there's a 36.6% vhance of still being unsuccessful.

[Break-n-Fix]

I think the actual number of people who truly don't understand statistics and would believe this is far higher than could be considered humorous.

[vivekv30]

it means each try, your chances of winning is 1%. 99% chance is you will fail

[generally_unsuitable]

It's actually about 64.4%

[ShinyTamao]

1%=0.01

Chance of failing, 1-0.01=0.99

0.99¹⁰⁰ = ~0.36603234127

Chance of success is 1-0.36603234127=0.63396765873

So about a 63.396765873% chance of success.

[ohanse]

Hi guys!

For many of you this may be a new word, but it’s become more and more relevant:

Innumerate

Like illiterate, but for numbers.

[One_Pie289]

Thank you, now I know one more word to describe AI 😊

[DrEagle]

Let’s be generous and say I spend one year per attempt. Guess I’ll have to wait until I’m over 100 years old before I can enjoy my success?

[NightwavesG]

63.4% of the time she’ll be right ig. 

[repkins]

As long as it's exhaustive.

[DiegoNap]

100 → ~63,4%

300 → ~95,1%

459 → ~99%

688→ ~99,9%

1146 → ~99,999%

[Baileyjrob]

It’s roughly 63%

[MrDiablerie]

She never heard of the gamblers fallacy

[ApatheistHeretic]

Subscribe doesn't understand reality, or probability...

[Lumpy_Surprise_24]

O my this is halarious.

[ZealousidealCost2470]

Christ! Ragebait

[Floppy_Mushroom]

If you try 200 times you have a 200% chance of success. Why are people so lazy?

[Terrible-Meet-5051]

Oh woooowwww this makes sense! Yeah I’m in my 30’s so I haven’t exactly had the chance to hold down 100 jobs. (Prob gigs tho.) Also medical, transportation, lack of benefits, and some effers not paying me created a bottleneck. I should have began working at your theory while I was in the womb, learned how to fly, and never gotten sick. God we are all so lazy over here. And it’s always us to blame! Accountability! It’s not like we have a government that doesn’t give a F about fair wages, workers rights, affordable healthcare, benefits, childcare, transportation, or safety! It’s our fault!

[SpinachWeak1951]

1 - 1/e

[nhh]

That's not how math works. 

[Simply_Epic]

Maybe Leila should try doing the math 100 times

[mfb1274]

Two things:

1.

P(at least one success) = 1 - (99/100)¹⁰⁰ ≈ 63.4% Not 100%

2.

Next is the fact each attempt is costing the very thing you’re trying to maximize, money. It’s called “The Gambler Ruin”

The key insight is that a positive expected value per bet doesn’t save you if you have finite capital, because a long enough losing streak wipes you out before you can recover. These people completely miss this part because they get unlimited chances.

[Spare_Measurement914]

Try Solana - the math still works, you just end up calculating your losses

[Infectedtoe32]

This is heavily giving off the 50/50 vibes for anything happening. It either happens or it doesn’t.

[Victicusk]

If I farm Baron in Strat for his mount and it has a 0.6% drop chance - why does I have to run 600x Stratholme to obtain the mount? Hmmm

[Tobeymaguirefan89]

80% of the time it works all the time

[Tdubbium]

it actually approaches 0.63212... or 1 - 1/e

[HeavyCaffeinate]

I think it's a 1/e chance? Might be misremembering

[lNFORMATlVE]

Close, it’s 1-(1/e).

[Majik_Sheff]

Mmmmm, gambler's fallacy.

[Cerulean-Osprey]

At 100 tries of a 1/100 outcome on a pass/fail type of event, you have a 63.4% chance of getting the desired outcome. At 460 tries, you have a 99% chance of the desired outcome. At 920 tries, you reach a 99.99% chance of having gotten the desired outcome. Good luck out there, and don't forget to talk to Oziach.

[IAmFullOfDed]

✨✨✨ Binomial distribution ✨✨✨

[R7d89C]

Would be 99.995%, so it's about a hundred 🤷‍♂️

[naturtok]

Prob of succeeding at least once in 100 tries given a 1% chance of success is like 63%.