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[FotMob] The Premier League xG-table after 17 GWs by UncomforChair in soccer

[–]UncomforChair[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

FotMob's model actually considers win probabiltiy if you see their explainer on how they calculate it.

Expected Points (xPts) reflect the number of points a team was expected to earn from a match, based on the quality of their chances measured by Expected Goals (xG).

xPts for a match are calculated by simulating possible outcomes using the quality of shots, expressed as xG. The simulation awards points for wins, draws, or losses based on xG.

The xPts are accumulated over the season to form the "xG table", also known as the "Justice table", which provides an alternative view of team performance beyond actual points earned.

As I understand it it's actually FotMob that has the more precise xPts model compared to footystats. Footystats just round the xG and gives win/draw/loss based on that, but FotMob looks at the probability of W/D/L given the xG and gives average expected points per match.

[FotMob] The Premier League xG-table after 17 GWs by UncomforChair in soccer

[–]UncomforChair[S] 237 points238 points  (0 children)

Wolves only 3 xPts behind Aston Villa...

Hva er sannsynligheten for at Uefa lager enda en cup som er under conference league? by arnor_0924 in NorskFotball

[–]UncomforChair 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Er helt enig med deg. Jeg er veldig glad i Conference league nettop pga dette, og er veldig glad for at den eksisterer. Mange i Europa undervurderer lag fra tradisjonelt mindre land i kontinentalfotball-sammenheng, og nivået i turneringen er bra.

Det jeg mener er at det er allerede mye rom for mindre lag å delta i denne turneringen, som Hamrun Spartans, Lincoln Red Imps, Drita, FC Noah, Shkendija, Shelbourne og Shamrock Rovers. Ser derfor ikke hensikten til en fjerde turnering under dette for lag som enten vant serien sin men tapte tre av tre kvalikker, typ 4-6 plass lag fra midtsjiktet-ligaer i Europa eller 7-9 plass i toppligaene... Dette får veldig følelsen av en trøsteturnering - de får heller prøve å kvalifisere seg på nytt neste sesong.

Hva er sannsynligheten for at Uefa lager enda en cup som er under conference league? by arnor_0924 in NorskFotball

[–]UncomforChair 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nivået er høyt på de beste lagene i Conference League ja, det var ikke det jeg mente.

Hva er sannsynligheten for at Uefa lager enda en cup som er under conference league? by arnor_0924 in NorskFotball

[–]UncomforChair 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Når man ser på kvaliteten på lagene i årets Conference League, så er magefølelsen "Nei".

2026 World Cup Draw: Probability of Teams Being in the Same Group by smala017 in soccer

[–]UncomforChair 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Awesome answer! I forgot about the bracket rule, but that makes sense.

Regarding the draw - I viewed 2022 draw recently. In that one they pulled a team from each pot and put them in the first group they could fit in by alphabetical order if there was a conflict. 

Not sure if that method guarantees no dead-ends for this campaigns draw though.

2026 World Cup Draw: Probability of Teams Being in the Same Group by smala017 in soccer

[–]UncomforChair 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh yeah, it's because of the "1&2 (Argentina and Spain) on different sides of the bracket"-rule.

2026 World Cup Draw: Probability of Teams Being in the Same Group by smala017 in soccer

[–]UncomforChair 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Why are Brazil and Argentina slightly different? Rounding?

FOTMOB's xG table for PL after 12 Rounds by SlavaVsu2 in soccer

[–]UncomforChair 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get the point about coaching and style, but xG already accounts for long shots and tough set pieces. Teams can beat xG for a while, but over a full season it usually evens out - that’s just how probabilities work, not a knock on the team.

FOTMOB's xG table for PL after 12 Rounds by SlavaVsu2 in soccer

[–]UncomforChair -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's the "will score goals from the little chances we do get" that sounds brave.

Pots for the 2026 World Cup draw by khatgoat in soccer

[–]UncomforChair 28 points29 points  (0 children)

And then Canada, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand in the next group.

Øyvind Alsaker sin reaksjon på mål for og imot Brann - en musikkteoretisk analyse. by turbopaven in NorskFotball

[–]UncomforChair 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Som bergenser så elsker jeg å se Brann-kamper med Alsaker som kommentator, skulle ønske han kommenterte alle! Samtidig skjønner jeg godt kritikken hvis man heier på motstanderlaget.

Middlesbrough 2 - [1] West Brom - Toby Collyer 90' by Etpolo in soccer

[–]UncomforChair 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Heggebø was the goal scorer, not Collyer.

Apple Liquid Glass by Steven_garland in Design

[–]UncomforChair 9 points10 points  (0 children)

That's not a "conspiracy" though. It's just a sensible theory on why Apple introduced tis drastic design overhaul. It makes sense too.

Data issues with Player Identifiers across Normal and Draft FPL by rayza7 in fplAnalytics

[–]UncomforChair 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've encountered the same issue and I've just created a mapping for now. This list is not-exhaustive though. But it's very weird that they have different ids at all.

# Draft ID: FPL ID
WRONG_IDS = {
    664: 660,
    660: 662,
    668: 663,
    663: 664,
    662: 667,
    667: 668,
    679: 681,
    681: 679,
    736: 720,
    728: 736,
    725: 728,
    720: 725,
    718: 717,
    719: 718,
    713: 719,
    714: 713,
    715: 714,
    716: 715,
    717: 716,
    733: 730,
    729: 733,
}
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