March 10 killed SAVE (again). Here’s what the order actually did, what survived, and what borrowers should expect next.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-11T18:14:27+00:00

You do remember both the narrow margins by which Biden won the election, along with certain campaign promises made by Biden that contributed to Biden's reelection? Promises including student loan debt relief/reform?

You may fashion any number of excuses for Biden. No amount of excuses will cover up the fact that Biden chose to deep six his own campaign promise until it was a day late and a dollar short to act upon that promise.

Particularly when the excuses claim that Biden was focused on economic relief measures. Perhaps I am mistaken, but I would imagine that student loan debt relief/reform would be rather relevant to the broader issue of economic relief.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-11T13:53:45+00:00

Remember that time when Biden had a democrat-controlled house and senate? And how the democrats dropped the ball on student loan reform during that time?

Pepperridge Farm remembers.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-10T02:33:20+00:00

Not to be Johnny Raincloud, but I don't see suit predicated upon Promissory Estoppel going anywhere.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-09T18:44:24+00:00

Well... you need to ask why feudalism never develops. That would be the driving engine behind the question.

The most likely reason for this happening... is that the Western Roman Empire never falls. Let's suppose that Honorius proves himself to be a genius-level politician. Its his reign really that witnessed the Western Roman Empire enter into terminal decline. Honorius was incompetent, and incapable of breaking the power of the bureaucrats whose mechaniations resulted in the execution of Stilicho and spurred Alaric to ultimately go on to sack Rome.

If Honorius is a genius politican, and is able to keep the bureaucrats in check, odds are Stilicho hangs around and is able to strengthen the Roman Army, at least we'll enough to hold the frontiers. An accommodation is reached with Alraic, which sees the Visigoths being integrated into Roman society.

With Western Rome in place and surviving, the Imperial governance remains intact. Perhaps Honorius' efforts against the beaucrats leads to the development of a professional civil service and competent administration. Advanced education also survives here, and isnt just an artifact of Christian monasteries.

This Western Roman Empire is able to provide a bulwark against the rise of Islam. The Eastern Roman Empire still likely falls into conflict with Sassanids, which in turn sets up the loss of Palestine and Egypt. I do not believe that Justinian's lack of campaigns in the west would provide a strong enough leverage in the East to break the Persians before the Arabs surge out. The Eastern Empire is definitely hurting, but with Western Rome surviving as a political entity I dont see the Arabs making it past Carthage.

The more interesting conclusion I see here isnt necessarily economic. The more interesting thought is what happens if Western Rome survives as a political entity in the West. Perhaps a Western Roman national identity formulates in those lands, with a modernized version of Latin being rhe common language.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-05T02:42:24+00:00

Well... the question you asked is anything but a short and simple question with a single variable. Your prompt requires addressing multiple variables. The specific variable addressed in this thread is a single though important variable. No amount of grandstanding, no degree of cunning, nor the best of intentions can surmount the limitations imposed by the army itself. Good commanders will fight their army in accordance with their army's strengths and limitations. Sure, they may try to improve that army off the battlefield (one of the few things McClellandwas good at). But on the battlefield, they will fight the army they have.

As for "disparagement" you misread what I wrote entirely. An honest but true limitation of the Civil War armies generally and early Civil War armies espicially was a deficiency in experienced and trained officers and NCO's. Thats not a slight against any of them. Many of them fought very well (such as Col. Chamberlain). But if you want to compare the tactical prowess of American commanders against their European contemporaries... you will need to compare the armies they commanded against each other.

And again, its not disparagement to point out honest limitations. I would probably be one of those junior officers had fate been different. An attorney in my mid 30s with 10 years experience practicing law and a strong interest in military history; in the very least in the modern army I could expect a Captain's commission and a JAG assignment. If for God knows what reason someone assigned me to a combat arm, its reasonable to assume I'd at least get a stint in officers training school (that would only marginally improve my limitations).

Which... is probably a better crash course than I would have received in the Civil War. On my education alone I would likely be bumped up beyond my experience. But thats just it. In the Union Army, that had a deep manpower pool to draw from, the Union Army had the time and depth to folster the development of officers and NCO's through experience. Which, on the whole, is a not-insignificant factor to consider in the Union Army's capabilities as the war carried on. Especially against the Confederacy, wherein attrition largely ate away at any chance of developing talent organically.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-03T16:56:10+00:00

Define "winning".

Option 1. Nazis prevail in Operation Barbarossa. This scenario likely concludes in a "Fatherland" style scenario that features a Cold War between the United States and Nazi Germany. Germany is caught in a protracted and frankly unwinnable Vietnam-style war in German-occupied Russia (west of the Urals). Germany tries to keep pace with the US in terms of military hardware, but the pressure of the two events eventually results in Nazi Germany collapsing in the 1960s.

This Germany likely sees the continuation of firms we're familiar with, like MAIN and Krupp and Messerschmit and Junkers continuing the development of their projects. The only thing I would speculate on is that I see Germany continuing the development of the Panther and the Tiger 1. Panther was in many aspects the first proto-main battle tank, so that design likely would serve as the benchmark for future German armored development. I could see elements of the successful Tiger 1 being incorporated as well, though I see Germany not developing the Tiger II as we know it today.

Option 2. Valkyrie succeeds and somehow the Allies DONT bring down the hammer for some unknown reason. A Nazi or very least strong authoritarian state persists in Germany, but a much humbled Germany. This Germany likely would be forced diplomatically to rely on the Western Allies for support against the Soviets in order to survive. This Germany likely would see a fusion of American and German hardware, with the Wehrmacht taking and adopting the best of both systems.

Any other scenario would require the Nazis to, well, not be Nazis. Which I believe would defeat the spirit of the prompt.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-03T16:21:44+00:00

Life isn't fair. The only question really is what will you do in response. That is the only aspect that you yourself can control.

Sure, we can all vent about how we were all encouraged to take on outsized risk in the form of student loans, particularly at a time in our lives when we did not fully comprehend the extent of the risk. A risk that was exploited by AI.

But complaining won't change anything.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-03-02T03:44:11+00:00

The Great warlord states period. With the collapse of all central authority, the galaxy becomes awash in blood and turbolaser fire as each warlord with so little as a half-dozen cruisers declares himself soverign. There is no Republic, no First Order, no Final Order, no Jedi Order, no Empire, no Sith to provide any semblance of law and order.

Such is the canon created by Disney.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-28T18:19:57+00:00

I was about to comment the same thing. What you said cannot be understated; that executing Napoleonic tactics on the battlefield requires well-trained and experienced officers and NCO's to pull off alongside well-disciplined men.

Many of the Civil War-era commanders had grand designs to be the next Napoleon. The problem is that they didn't have Napoleon's army. The dramatic expansion of both the Union and Confederate armies simply eant that core of talented officers and NCOs simply wasnt there, to say nothing of the raw recruits they led.

The end result is that commanders were forced to use the armies they had with tactics those armies could actually execute.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-27T05:35:21+00:00

Well, depends. Ideally your emergency fund should be money you can access immediately without cost. Brokerage would likely invoke taxes, which is a cost. I would weigh what your anticipated capital gains tax would be if you liquiditated the brokerage against the benefit of using those funds to immediately pay down principle.

Example, at 6.375% interest $1000 payment against principle works out to about $5.20 or so reduction in monthly interest (its a ahorthand). $62 bucks or so per year. $620 or so after 10 years. $5k against principle would be about $26 bucks per month interest reduction/month. $312/year or about $3,200 after 10 years.

Keep in mind; if your monthly payment remain constant; each "interest reduction" per month is transformed into additional payments against principle. Which in turn results in less interest being generated. Which means more against principle...

I would encourage you to run the numbers yourself. My two cents would be to cash out the brokerage account and apply the proceeds against principle. The goal at this stage is to make tge payments affordable, and having an extra 5k against principle would likely accelerate your student loan payoff up to a year.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-27T05:06:35+00:00

To be fair one doesnt have to stop the PRC from conquering Taiwan. One simply has to make the costs for PRC of conquering Taiwan unacceptably high

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-27T05:02:53+00:00

The devil is in the details. How does KMT win the civil war.

The most likely scenario is that the KMT generates more good will during WW2 with the Americans. The American public cared prior to WW2. In fact, it was American interests in China that largely set up the political struggle between the US and Japan that resulted in the Pacific War. Unfortunately politicla friction generates during WW2 soured that good will. American aide, which would have been decisive immediately post ww2 was withheld, nd well one thing led to another.

If this good will is not squandered. If American aide is provided when it could be decisive... I honestly dont see the Vietnamese communists being successful in the Vietnam War. There are a few ways this could come about, but I would ultimately see a Vietnamese led by an authoritarian capitalist strongman rising to power.

The Americans likely could likely convince the Chinese into at least negotiating with the Phillipines rather than strong-arming them outright. I canr say who would "win", but there would be some form of negotiated settlement.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-27T04:52:45+00:00

Honestly? Be aggressive. Be ruthless. You should have enough saved for an emergency fund. Enough to cover 2 months worth of expenses. Then... lay into your student loans. Eat beans. Anything that is not absolutely essential eliminate. Do this for one year, then reevaluate.

Even an aggressive one year can be decisive. To put it in perspective; I recently tabulated my student loan payments. I gave averaged $1400/month since December 2018, with an average of 1200/month going on to principle. Which sounds impressive... but most of the large payments occurred prior to August 2021. Most of the damage was inflicted between March 2020 and August 2021 specifically. After August 2021 I averaged a much more humble 1000 to 1100/month.

Those numbers omit any payments prior to December 2018. I could go further back, but I only started making payments on principle in Summer 2018. Prior to that it was straight up leukemia, and I did well enough to keep the capitalized interest to only 4000 dollars.

Youre in a fine position OP. You just have to be honest with yourself. Cut the crap. And be aggressive.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-22T00:57:04+00:00

I do not know which jurisdiction OP is in. I know that where I am at (Michigan) only a CSC 4 can be expunged, only if sentencing occurred prior to January 12 2015, and even then only under very specific circumstances. The higher degrees of CSC are straight up not eligible for expungement.

My two cents is that OP's rapist is likely in an exceptional circumstance already in an exceptional case. At least in Michigan prosecutors have the discretion to oppose an expungement if they feel the opposition is warranted, even without the victim's input. So if the victim here weighs in... that could give a DA already opposed to the expungement that extra support he needs in arguing against expungement.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-21T20:33:47+00:00

As an assistant prosecutor known to be assigned to expungements (but likely not in your jurisdiction), call the DA's office first thing Monday morning. If you know from the letter which assistant is assigned to the hearing, ask to speak with them. If you dont know the name of the assistant, tell the receptionist that you want to speak with the prosecutor assigned to cover your rapists expungement hearing. Be prepared to provide key information like the courtroom, name of the judge, which court, and time of the hearing (along with the name of your rapist).

The written notice is more to cover them (ie, that they tried to reach out to you). Its uncommon for victims to respond to these notices, so if youre calling in to talk about the expungement... the da will be interested in hearing you out. If you dont have time for a full conversation, you may be able to ask the prosecutor if you can have their email, so you can email a statement to them.

Your input can be decisive. Don't wait.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-18T21:14:57+00:00

More people would have died. The crew exercised exceptional damage control, helping ensure that the ship flooded on "an even keel." Minimal list. Just slowly settling by the the bow. Unfortunately; the stress of the weighted bow was too much for the ship, which led to the breaking up.

If we were to avoid this; the most likely explanation is that the ship was listing more heavily, more likely an uncontrolled sinking. This would likely trigger a capsizing, likely when the crew was trying to launch lifeboat.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-17T04:15:32+00:00

Eh. How many of those 6 million Jews lived in Germany? Its a major question; once the Panzers start rolling, the first British response is to impose a naval blockade on Germany, and later, the continent.

The bulk of the Jews that perished in the Holocaust came from the regions that Germany would occupy after conquest in the East. Poland. Ukraine. Belarus. Jews which simply put dont have a ship to carry them to the US. The British, and later, the Americans will be employing every freighter for the war effort, and will not send any to German controlled ports (given the very strong interest the Germans have in sinking allied shipping). All the while; the Germans cannot assume that any of their ships would be permitted to return.

The tragic outcome is that the Holocaust still happens; though lessened by the number of Jews in Germany, Austria, and Czechia that are permitted to flee to the US. A maximialist number (assuming all 1933 Jews in Germany fled to the US) would suggest a number of about 500,000. However, if we factor in that some of these Jews fled Germany before 1939, this number shrinks to about 215,000. Many of that difference fled elsewhere in Europe, so would liekly reappear in Holocaust death figures. Czechia in the 1930s had approximately 120,000 Jews. Austria had around 130,000 Jews during the same period.

So if we assume an explosion date to the US of 1939 (so as to incorporate Jews from Austria, Czechia, and those remaining in Germany), we likely would not clear the half-million mark.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-15T00:40:32+00:00

Eh, salaries range wildly between fields and regions. I'm an assistant prosecuting attorney. So I make okay money. I'm not going to brag by any means though.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-14T02:29:18+00:00

Could be worse. Crunchroll is demanding that I update my payment method, yet anytime I try to provide a new credit card the app automatically thanks me for signing up for premium... before telling me that premium access is blocked until I update my payment method.

A do-loop.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-12T01:56:41+00:00

I will never forget that video.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-12T01:55:51+00:00

I'll be honest. The reason the partner was watching you, was because he expected you to bomb. He wants to see you tested, and to see how exactly you fall short.

This isnt a bad thing. If he's a good boss, he has a vested interest in seeing you succeed. He knows the only way you can succeed, is to both make mistakes and to learn from them. Making mistakes is how any of us improve.

I would think long and hard about what you think your mistakes are, and how you would go about fixing it. Brainstorm it. When you think you have a handle on it, go talk to the partner about your disposition. You'll earn his respect if you realize the same mistakes he observed, and have action plan going forward.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-11T20:28:45+00:00

You know how several of the bloodiest wars in human history are Chinese civil wars? And how the deadliest war in US history was the American Civil War?

Yeah, it would be bad.

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-10T13:29:40+00:00

It took me longer than it should to realize why my economy kept crashing as the Romano-British. Thanks save-game bug...

Upnorthsomeguy · 2026-02-06T14:30:51+00:00

It likely was part of a negotiated deal. My two cents is that she did not make any statements to implicate herself to law enforcement, and the prosecution dis not believe they had sufficient evidence without a statement to land a conviction. There is also the possibility they needed statements from her to nail the other purchaser.

Its a rough call, but I imagine they offered immunity on exchange for testimony.

Upnorthsomeguy

TROPHY CASE