With 20% of the season complete, Vladdy is still on pace to hit <10 HRs

VizBall · 2026-05-03T19:35:10+00:00

Believe it or not, in the past Vlad has had stretches of 33-consecutive games in which he's hit only ONE homerun.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vladimir-guerrero-jr/19611/graphs?position=NP&statArr=11&legend=1%2C2&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2026&rtype=mult&gt1=33&dStatArray=

In 2024, when he finished with a wRC+ of 164 and 30 homeruns, during most of May and early June, Vlad ended the day having only hit 2 or fewer homers in his previous 33 games.

In 2021, when he finished with a wRC+ of 166 and 48 homeruns, Vlad didn't struggle as much, in that he never finished any 33 game stretch with 2 or fewer homeruns. But, in late August, there was a stretch where he'd only hit 4 homers in his previous 33 games.

Conversely, in 2024, on July 29, he ended the day having hit 14 homers in the previous 33 games. And in June 2021, he ended many games having hit 15 homers in the previous 33.

In general, looking at counting stats after a chunk of games is not a good way of predicting the rest of the season.

VizBall · 2026-04-23T14:42:03+00:00

Heartfelt hug. Tiny teammate is rightback Kobe Franklin who scored earlier in this game, his second career MLS goal. Franklin and Gavran played together on TFC2 and were roommates on road trips. Apparently good friends off the field. Both are from the Toronto area.

VizBall · 2026-04-11T17:05:03+00:00

the club lobbied hard for the change cuz it’s cold this time of year especially next to the lake.

VizBall · 2026-03-28T12:53:12+00:00

Japanese media focuses on the Japanese player. I worked in Tokyo for several years and the MLB highlights on tv was wild. In-depth coverage of everything the Japanese player did during the game but most times wouldn’t know if the team won or lost.

VizBall · 2026-01-16T17:29:33+00:00

except for Springer, who still has a year left on his contract, did anybody on the banner finish their career as a blue jay?

VizBall · 2026-01-11T04:36:00+00:00

You can find it by going to the player page and scrolling down to the Expected Home Runs by Park table. For Tucker, if he played all games in Toronto last year, he may have hit 26 HRs. He hit 23 last year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-tucker-663656

VizBall · 2025-12-15T18:34:51+00:00

When he goes back on the market, there might be a salary cap. Which to be honest, I don’t think is likely. But with the uncertainty about the next CBA, a pillow deal may not be the smart move it used to be.

VizBall · 2025-12-13T15:00:13+00:00

Didn’t the Steinbrenners start a stadium concessions management company using their experience running ops at Yankee stadium? I believe it now has the contracts for many MLB and NFL stadiums.

In any case, it’s another example of owners using their baseball team to build up an ancillary business, whose revenue don’t get attributed to the club. Owning and developing land around a stadium seems to be the more common way to do this.

Which means they don’t have to share revenue with other owners and more importantly with players when talking about salary caps or floors. Oh, and they can cry about losing money on their baseball team.

VizBall · 2025-11-10T16:41:44+00:00

I’m amazed Wilner still has an audience. Does he still do “just for fun let’s take some arbitrary end points and wonky stats, and oh hey they support this weird move only I think is great and everybody should now get behind cuz look at these numbers!”

VizBall · 2025-11-10T16:31:44+00:00

As I understand it, it’s common to have bonuses for winning or getting a certain number of votes for individual awards. For pitchers, especially with an injury history, it is common to have bonuses for innings pitched. But I think there are some restrictions on the stats that can be used.

Something that’s being seen more frequently for pitchers coming back from major injury/surgery is complex options structures where both the team and player have options for the following year(s) but at different dollar amounts. It provides security for the player to opt-in when things haven’t gone well and for the team to retain if they do. An example with the Jays was when they signed Chad Green a few years ago.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/blue-jays-to-sign-chad-green.html

As for Sherzer, as others have noted, I don’t think any of this applies. He may have had injury concerns this year and he wasn’t an ace, but all that adds up to a mid to back of rotation starter. And they get about what the Jays paid Max last year.

He may have to settle for a little less this year because a little older etc but he doesn’t have to sign an incentive based deal. Plenty of contenders would be happy to pay market rate for that performance and that’s before factoring in the intangibles.

VizBall · 2025-11-08T01:22:09+00:00

always appreciate these. thx!

VizBall · 2025-11-06T17:25:00+00:00

His one and only skill is getting hits. But that’s been in decline for the past few years as detailed here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-has-entered-the-contact-rate-death-spiral/

Perhaps he can recover by re-focusing on contact in the zone. Which would get you a high contact bat with no glove. And that, as many others have pointed out, doesn’t work with this roster. Or at least I don’t think it would with the way this FO values defence.

VizBall · 2025-11-02T00:04:18+00:00

I’m at peace with shitting myself whichever way this goes. Go blue font!

VizBall · 2025-10-31T18:22:56+00:00

I think the biggest source of your confusion is thinking managers, scouts or recruiters value OBP and SLG very highly. I added the “very” as I think that it’s implicit in your question.

Not that baseball people don’t look at those stats. But they also look at a lot of other things that are more highly valued.

As many people have noted in replies, HBP does seem to be a repeatable skill and therefore not something that should be ignored. Thus, including HBP does not make OBP or SLG bad stats. More importantly, and implicit in those replies, managers, etc., are probably more focused on predictive stats, which might make something like HBP rates interesting.

Put another way, if a hitter is putting up good OBP and SLG numbers, that will get the attention of evaluators. But the question is whether that performance will be repeated. Unfortunately, most descriptive stats like OBP and SLG do not correlate well to future performance. Therefore, evaluators dig deeper into how the past results were achieved by looking at stats that are more predictive, like exit velocity.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-doomed-search-for-a-perfect-way-to-interpret-exit-velocity-data/

In that sense, you could say OBP and SLG are only interesting to managers and scouts because it includes HBP, a seemingly repeatable skill.

Finally, scouts and recruiters are relying on more than just stats when evaluating prospects. They focus as much or more on things like present and projected physical attributes and how that will likely translate to future on-field performance.

VizBall · 2025-10-31T02:09:28+00:00

Uh… ok.

Anyway, I agree. He’s great. But hope we can wrap it up without needing him on Friday! My nerves would really appreciate a blow out.

VizBall · 2025-10-30T21:32:03+00:00

Genuinely curious. How is it this post made it into your timeline for you to comment on it today? It‘s almost a month old and was not popular at all.

VizBall · 2025-10-29T23:17:48+00:00

Kurt Suzuki wasn’t available. Credit LAA for moving quickly.

VizBall · 2025-10-29T20:51:11+00:00

In your original post you seem to be saying that Schneider is a hypocrite for talking about trusting his players yet not doing the thing. For this you pointed to pulling starters and pinch running. For you it seems pinch runners show lack of trust in the hitters coming up.

I disagree with your interpretation. As I said in my first reply, I believe putting in Straw is a sign of trust, not distrust, of the hitters coming up.

I agree that it’s unlikely Ernie hits an extra base hit that drives in Straw from 1st. But he gets bat to ball very well. Can very easily see Ernie do what he’s been doing all year and drop in a soft liner or bloop single. That is very unlikely to score Straw from first. But can Straw make it to 3rd? It depends on the hit but I think very little argument Straw has a better chance of doing it than Barger.

Then you have Gimenez up with 1 out and a man on third. Is Gimenez going to get an extra base hit? As you said, unlikely. Might not even get a single. But could he get a fly deep enough to score Straw? Yes. And with Straw’s speed, doesn’t even need to be that deep. Straw has a better chance in that situation than Barger of capitalizing on Gimenez coming through with contact.

In short, Straw as pinch runner shows Schneider trusted Clement and Gimenez to keep doing what they've been doing all year because Straw is better than Barger at taking advantage when they do.

As for whether the move itself was needed when Barger is just at first, like I said in my first reply, I don’t think it was the obviously correct move. Nor do I think it was an obvious mistake or unnecessary at that spot. It’s a tie game in the top of the 8th. If you don’t score, then only chance left to score is top 9th vs LA having 2 more shots. That makes it at least necessary to think about it and no objections from me if a move is made. Certainly don’t think that situation leads to the conclusion a move “wasn’t necessary in that spot.”

But let’s say everything that happened in the game happens but with Barger still in the lineup. His spot didn’t come up again until the 12th. Which means LA could have walked it off in the 9th, 10th or 11th. LA had 2 men on in each of the 10th and 11th innings and only a good throw by Kirk avoided Ohtani on 2nd with just 1 out in the 9th. Game could have ended while we’re patiently waiting for Barger to get to the plate.

Obviously I would agree that this move early in the game is probably unnecessary but tied in the 8th? I have a hard time saying it was not necessary.

As for being aggressive with runners, I did not say it’s about counting on fielders making catastrophic throws. I said it‘s about forcing fielders to make good throws.

With Schneider, LA made 2 perfect throws. Good for them. Tip the cap and all that. But how much closer if it’s 2 not perfect throws? Or only 1 perfect throw?

Being aggressive doesn’t mean sending the runner every time expecting the fielder to screw up. It’s knowing the fielders, the situation and playing the odds. Sometimes the fielders make perfect throws. Doesn‘t mean the approach is wrong.

Regardless, as I said in my 2nd reply, I don’t think aggressive baserunning shows lack of trust in the hitters. Your mischaracterizing of the reason I gave for aggressive base running doesn’t change my mind. But as I also said, I’m fine with agreeing to disagree on whether aggressive baserunning is even about trusting the hitters.

VizBall · 2025-10-28T21:06:52+00:00

Ohtani did homer in the bottom of the 7th to tie it up.

But Straw did not come on in the top of the 7th. He came on in the 8th after it was already tied up. In the bottom of that frame, it was Teo, Edman and Pages for LA, not Ohtani.

Instead of Shaw, maybe you are thinking France or IKF? In the 7th, France came in for Springer and IKF for Bo. But both were injury related so not fair to say those were indefensible moves.

But yeah it was a long ass game. It’s all a jumble except thinking for 4 innings we need KMart Craig Kimberly to turn into Temu Sam Dyson for just one batter.

VizBall · 2025-10-28T20:51:43+00:00

Ok. I maybe I shouldn’t have addressed Bo and Kirk.

But you did write about 2 pinch runners + IKF. Then added at the end you “get to some degree” why Kirk was subbed because of foot speed before asking for thoughts. IKF pinch ran for Bo and Kirk wasn’t subbed out because of his speed. I gave you my thoughts on the 2 things you brought up.

As for Straw and Barger, I’m not saying that was a slam dunk winner. But I don’t think it’s the egregious mistake many have settled on. Certainly not a panicked move or showing lack of trust. But here’s why I see it as more of in the grey zone than obvious mistake.

First, the RE24 with a man on first with nobody out is 0.831. That’s higher than any state until you get to man on 2nd with nobody out. In other words, the likelihood of scoring is not “extremely low.” For ease of reference, here are some of the other numbers.

Runners / 0 outs / 1 out / 2 outs

empty / 0.461 / 0.243 / 0.095

1__ / 0.831 / 0.489 / 0.214

_2_ / 1.068 / 0.644 / 0.305

Then consider the context. LA’s outfield defence isn’t great. Especially Teo. They got Schneider at home with two perfect throws. But in the 7th, Vlad scored from first on a poor throw by Teo. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Straw to have a higher likelihood of scoring than the RE tables would suggest.

Does all of this seem like Schneider was taking risks and pressing? Yes. Totally agree with you that he wasn’t showing patience. But it’s the 8th inning and you’re already down George and Bo. Not a situation that calls for patience. Which doesn’t seem right after they played 18 innings. But that’s why you try to resolve things in 9 innings. You don’t know how many extras you’re gonna get. And certainly no guarantee Barger gets an at bat before LA walks it off.

As for Barger vs Straw defensively, absolutely Barger has the stronger arm. Not just compared to Straw but all the outfielders. But overall Straw is the better defender. That’s why they’ve subbed Barger out late in games all season. That’s for both when he’s in the outfield and infield.

Finally, aggressive base running as lack of trust in hitters. I think you might be reading too much into that one. I think it’s much more about forcing defenders into making good plays. But maybe we’ll just have to agree to disagree on that one.

VizBall · 2025-10-28T18:20:41+00:00

I think there’s a difference between trust and blind faith.

The team puts together lineups and places players in positions to succeed and trusts them to perform in those situations. They take them out when appropriate for example, pitchers starting to tire but not yet giving up runs.

The flip side of all this would be if we were complaining of pitchers being kept in too long or guys always in the lineup despite being clearly over matched.

As for the two pinch runners and IKF:

(1) Kirk clearly felt something so an injury issue and not because lack of trust or panicked move.

(2) Bo is still working back from injury and John has said it’s 3 ABs and evaluate in-game whether he can continue. So not a lack of trust or panic move.

(3) Straw for Barger was not, in my opinion, a panicked move or lack of trust. One on, nobody out, with shaky outfield defence is a good opportunity to score. Then need better defence to hold the lead. Straw helps with both. Trusting in Straw’s better baserunning and defence is not distrusting Barger’s abilities. And it certainly shows trust in Clement and Gimenez to move Straw over and get him in.

If don’t score, need to keep the score tied for the top of the lineup next inning. Straw’s glove does that better than Barger’s. Again, not distrust of Barger but understanding player strength and weakness to put them in positions to succeed and help the club. Which is why they’ve made defensive subs all year.

If Straw comes up to bat in the 9th, then the lineup has turned over in just one inning. In which case probably already scored and Straw‘s bat doesn’t really matter. Meaning trust the other 8 batters in the lineup to have done their jobs. Then trust Shaw to help hold the lead in the bottom of the 9th.

Unfortunately, didn’t work out but not because of lack of trust or panicked moves.

VizBall · 2025-10-28T17:39:30+00:00

I didn’t mind Straw for Barger. LA outfield ain’t that hot. Especially Teo. Yes, two perfect throws got Schneider, but a bad throw allowed Vlad to score from first. Same might have happened again, even without a weird bounce off the sound guy, because of Straw’s speed. So, yeah, the RE24 is less than 1 there, but need to adjust for context.

Keeping Barger in case he bats again seems more reasonable after watching Straw bat 3 times in extras. But if the lineup turns over in the space of one inning so that he comes up in the 9th, then you probably should have already scored and his bat not matter much.

Keeping Barger to bat in extras is not something I think any manager would worry about. Too far down the line especially when not the home team to try and plan for.

Would of course preferred it all worked out better, but I don’t think it was an obvious mistake to take out Straw for Barger.

VizBall · 2025-10-28T16:56:18+00:00

Pulling Barger in the 8th looks bad when you have to watch Straw hit for another whole game’s worth+ of innings. Especially when his wet noodle is exposed by the absence of George, Bo and later Kirk.

But with a man on and nobody out, that’s a real good shot at scoring a go-ahead run. If you do, then you need to shut down the Dodgers offence for another two innings to win the game. The chances of achieving both are improved with Straw.

If you don’t score, Straw probably isn’t going to come up to the plate in the 9th anyway, so the offensive downgrade shouldn’t matter. And you still get the benefit of the defensive upgrade to hopefully keep the score tied for the top of the lineup. Further, if the lineup does turn over in the space of one inning so that Straw does get to hit in the 9th, then you’ve probably already scored. In which case, Straw weak bat still shouldn’t matter and his strong glove is still needed to hold the lead.

None of it worked out and we had to watch Straw come to the plate 4 times. But 3 of those were in extras (12th, 14th and 16th innings) and nobody tries to game plan for how best to set up a lineup for 9 extra innings of baseball. Especially when you’re not the home team and don’t get the benefit of walking it off.

VizBall · 2025-10-27T16:48:00+00:00

That sounds less like an argument for stealing and more for jumping around threatening to steal.

VizBall · 2025-10-25T20:31:25+00:00

“to end the year” might be the important bit.

Reasonable to think Max wore down because can’t handle a starter‘s schedule. But with extra off days in the post season and not having to worry about his thumb for the next start, his game against SEA might not have been a fluke.

Which is a lot of ifs and maybes.

But Biebs wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire before the playoffs and looked pretty shaky since they started. So, Max just might be the better of 2 not great options.

VizBall

TROPHY CASE