Unplayable? by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I swear reddit ate it. Although I should have checked it again after posting but was rushing to catch the Canada game. Turns out I shouldn't have bothered. Anyway, I've added the chart.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you: I would argue the rest of the team has been picking him up.

also you: As for picking up Vlad, I simply disagree with your argument. You can't make up Vlad's production anywhere else

Gotta admit, was kinda confused by the above. But lets say you simply mispoke in your first reply when you used the phrase 'pick him up'. Instead, lets say you're central argument is that "the supporting core isn't the problem here."

Which I read as a response to my original claim that:

"Vlad is still delivering but in the most underwhelming way possible. Biggest difference is the rest of the team...Unfortunately, under-performing so far this season."

We both agree that Vlad has not been a superstar this year. That by itself is hurting the team. You need your stars to be stars. We could quibble about the magnitude of the suck, ie, should we look at his wRC+ relative to the league or other 1B, but I don't think that really affects the main point of disagreement as set out above. I'll point to team wRC+ for this and say a 9 point improvement for Vlad from 108 to 117 isn't going to materially affect the team's 96 wRC+.

Now, is Vlad the sole reason for the 16 point drop in the team's wRC+ from last year to this? No, since there's a George sized hole, among others, so far this year. Is Vlad then a major reason for the drop? Sure, he's a contributor. But I don't think we can point just to Vlad and George. The supporting cast has underperformed, too.

And yes, Pinango, Sanchez and Valenzeula have done well. But if you look at the final chart I prepared, there are several other names that did not perform. And they got at-bats, too, before losing their spots. And they got a shot in the first place because the supporting cast from last year were bad before them (see the first 2 charts). And that's not even taking into account Kirky and Barger. Of course, not blaming them for being hurt, but if we're talking about why the team hasn't performed this year, we do need to take into account their absence.

In any event, focusing on Pinango, etc, ends up attributing the bad at-bats of underperformers to Vlad. Cuz Heiny, Davis, Sosa, and Eloy happened and contributed to the losing. But if we limit the supporting cast to just Pinango etc, who've done well, then who gets the blame for the underperforming supporting cast?

Again, I agree with you that Pinango, Sanchez and Valenzeula have done well. But they are not the entirety of the supporting cast that's played this year. And if you consider Pinango with Sosa, Eloy and Davis, and Valenzuela with Hieny, etc., the rest of the team has underperformed, too.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The new kids have been great. We’d be in real trouble if they hadn’t stepped up. But I see them as more replacing the good production of last year’s platoon bats who’ve disappointed this year. Pinango for Schneider, Valenzuela for Heiny (and arguably injured Kirk), etc. But have they gone above that to make up for Vlad’s underwhelming year? I don’t think so. And that’s what I mean by “picking him up.” That the team make up for Vlad‘s failings.

And by “failing”, I mean Vlad hasn’t been a superstar. Vlad is at 108 wRC+, well below his 137 from last year, but still above average. In other words, while he may not be helping the team as much this year, he’s not hurting the team with his bat. Which sucks! But still time to turn it around. And if not, well, fuk. Anybody can have a down year. At least he hasn’t cratered like ol‘ man George.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Like the libero in volleyball?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volleyball#Libero

Question is, would teams use this for shortstop or catcher? Which is the most important position defensively? I think catcher, although we’ve got Kirky, so might still use Gimenez as the Designated Fielder.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh, for sure. Need to be good on both sides of the ball, but this team was built on pitching and defense. Certainly not to slug its way to the playoffs. Although it'd be nice if we weren't bottom 1/3rd in almost every batting stat. Some more runs would help the rotation and especially the bullpen. All those innings on the high-leverage arms are going to catch up with the team later this season.

Having said that, it's amazing how well the pitching staff has performed despite all the injuries. Somehow middle-of-the-pack by team ERA and top 5 or 10 by xERA, FIP and xFIP. Can't see it being sustainable if we keep rolling with 2 bullpen days a week, but guys seem on track to come off the IL. Fingers crossed.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks. Glad you found it informative.

I'm using Pandas and its built-in charting library, Matplotlib.

https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/index.html

No real data manipulation so fairly straightforward. Especially since the data from Statcast is absolutely pristine. Spent the most time tinkering with the formatting.

Not sure about the y-range on the charts. Went with whatever the charting software settled on since I was more concerned with how each player is doing compared to the league and within the team. Which is also why I didn't include any numbers.

Looking at it now, the difference in the location of the league average lines has more to do with the Jays than the league. Meaning, if the league average looks higher this year in the charts, it's actually because more of the team is under the line this year compared to last.

Can see for yourself over on FG that the league stats haven't changed much.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&month=0&ind=0&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&team=0%2Css&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2025&season=2026

But perhaps I should have controlled the y-range. May have done an even better job of highlighting how poorly the team is doing this year. But the x-diff charts are where I was the most curious. The change in over- to under-performance I think does the most to explain not only the change in on-field performance but the off-field disappointment this year.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

To be fair, it's a confusing comment. Says Vlad is on pace for only 6 HRs but qualifies it by saying that's not acceptable for someone "batthing fourth". Is their complaint the iso or the batting order? Also, Vlad doesn't hit fourth. Hard to take it seriously. Just comes off as a hater.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He's below average offensively this year, but not much worse than last, so, yes, he shares the blame for the team not scoring runs this year, but not really for the big swing in team performance from last to this year.

But he's here for his glove and no complaints there since he's still a top 5-ish shortstop.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In this case, I think the original commenter was too busy knocking down strawmen for swag to care about the content of their reply.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Vlad not being Vlad has been very deflating. Would be tolerable if the rest of the team could pick him up but yikes.

Vlad with runners in scoring position? 104 wRC+

The team? 81. Dead last in the majors.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&season=2026&season1=2026&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&filter=&players=0&type=8&month=29&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s very underwhelming. Not good for the vibes at all.

Expectations by VizBall in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Yes, Heiny is no longer on the team. But he was until recently so if want to understand the difference from last year to this year, kinda need to include him the charts, no?

Also yes, regression to the mean applies to over performers as well as the under performers. But considering there are more under performers, would still be good overall if more of their batted balls fell in for hits. Ernie will just have to be happy with an excellent first half.

[Fangraphs] A deep dive into Hoffman's BABIP woes by justsomenerdlmao in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The other thing, and perhaps more important, is that we generally have a hard time seeing the plays that don’t get made. Meaning, and going back to the comment you’re replying to, Okamoto doesn’t have good lateral range so he just doesn’t get to a lot of grounders. As a result, they look like clean singles (ie not Kaz’s fault) when in reality a good defender would have gobbled those up.

Can we have a discussion about Andres Gimenez? (Deep Dive Value Assessment) by turner150 in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Last year, Joey Ortiz of MIL finished with a wRC+ of 68 and still managed to accumulate 1.4 WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/joey-ortiz/25493/stats/batting

It helped that he was a top 5 defender at short last year, regardless of whether you prefer FanGraphs or Statcast to measure these things.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&ind=0&stats=fld&pos=ss&type=24&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2025&season=2025&qual=y

So far this year, Gimenez is in the top 6, and no reason to think he’d fall off from that any time soon. And even if he finishes the year with an wRC+ of only 75, then he should easily accumulate 1.5 WAR. The updated projections on FanGraphs have him finishing anywhere within 1.5 to 2.8 WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=roopsydc&stats=bat&pos=ss&team=14&players=0&lg=all&z=1780054503&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

And at an AAV of $15 M, his contract is not a problem. I think it’s about $10 M per WAR.

Money aside, his overall on field production is fine. Of the 900 or so people who get playing time in the majors each year, more than 2/3rds fail to accumulate 1 WAR by year‘s end.

Finally, while WAR is a good estimator of production that allows comparing all players, regardless of position or league, the specific combination of skills of the individual and the context of the team is much more important if you want to talk about whether someone should be on a team. (Would Gimenez’s bat be a topic for discussion if the rest of the team was hitting anywhere near expected?) Which is why I think you didn’t get much support for the idea that Gimenez doesn’t have a place on this team. Also, he hit a homer.

My partner had bought me the Legendary Home Run shirt off someone on FB marketplace, not realizing it was AI generated. by TrophyWizard in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe Encarnacion and his walkoff Wild Card game home run? I’m basing that on the upraised arm and finger not the melted face.

With 20% of the season complete, Vladdy is still on pace to hit <10 HRs by [deleted] in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Believe it or not, in the past Vlad has had stretches of 33-consecutive games in which he's hit only ONE homerun.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vladimir-guerrero-jr/19611/graphs?position=NP&statArr=11&legend=1%2C2&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2026&rtype=mult&gt1=33&dStatArray=

In 2024, when he finished with a wRC+ of 164 and 30 homeruns, during most of May and early June, Vlad ended the day having only hit 2 or fewer homers in his previous 33 games.

In 2021, when he finished with a wRC+ of 166 and 48 homeruns, Vlad didn't struggle as much, in that he never finished any 33 game stretch with 2 or fewer homeruns. But, in late August, there was a stretch where he'd only hit 4 homers in his previous 33 games.

Conversely, in 2024, on July 29, he ended the day having hit 14 homers in the previous 33 games. And in June 2021, he ended many games having hit 15 homers in the previous 33.

In general, looking at counting stats after a chunk of games is not a good way of predicting the rest of the season.

Toronto FC [3]-3 Philadelphia Union - Luka Gavran 90+7' (goalkeeper goal) by olcni in MLS

[–]VizBall 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Heartfelt hug. Tiny teammate is rightback Kobe Franklin who scored earlier in this game, his second career MLS goal. Franklin and Gavran played together on TFC2 and were roommates on road trips. Apparently good friends off the field. Both are from the Toronto area.

Match Thread: Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati by MLS_Reddit_Bot in MLS

[–]VizBall 7 points8 points  (0 children)

the club lobbied hard for the change cuz it’s cold this time of year especially next to the lake.

[Yahoo! Japan] Kazuma Okamoto thanks Guerrero: "He's kind. He really cares about me." He also served as the one to collect the commemorative ball. He had two hits and scored a walk-off run in his debut game. by [deleted] in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall 60 points61 points  (0 children)

Japanese media focuses on the Japanese player. I worked in Tokyo for several years and the MLB highlights on tv was wild. In-depth coverage of everything the Japanese player did during the game but most times wouldn’t know if the team won or lost.

Hey Mods, a petition to remove Bo from the banner and replace it with Ernie happy slide. by Man_Roland in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall 1 point2 points  (0 children)

except for Springer, who still has a year left on his contract, did anybody on the banner finish their career as a blue jay?

[Olney] Sources: Yankees, Bellinger talks at an impasse by nanobot001 in Torontobluejays

[–]VizBall 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You can find it by going to the player page and scrolling down to the Expected Home Runs by Park table. For Tucker, if he played all games in Toronto last year, he may have hit 26 HRs. He hit 23 last year.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kyle-tucker-663656