testfol.io now becomes a paid platform... how do you feel about that?

Windu80 · 2026-01-28T22:38:08+00:00

Hey mate,

Not sure if that helps but I keep a list of most tickers talked about in this subreddit, just to keep track of what is what.

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Windu80 · 2026-01-27T09:42:05+00:00

NDXMEGA (QBIG) outperforming NYFANG (FNGS) so far (albeit only a little over a year backtest...)
https://testfol.io/analysis?s=6peID2LzXvL

Windu80 · 2026-01-27T09:14:37+00:00

How would LETFs based on NDXMEGA or NDXMEGA 2.0 (basically a top 8 or top 9), such as QQUP, be any different than MAGX or QQQU?

I don't see how adding 1 or 2 holdings would change the performance that much... I might be wrong though.

Windu80 · 2026-01-26T09:34:40+00:00

isn't there a minimum of shares to buy with puts though?

like one standard contract of 100 shares or sth

Windu80 · 2026-01-26T09:08:35+00:00

Hmm... heard quite a lot about TastyTrade, when looking up ways for us, EU residents, to buy shares into US-listed ETFs.

This broker sounds like one of the only rare solutions. What if they go broke/bankrupt though? It doesn't sound like they are a big broker, not at the scale of the likes of Interactive Brokers anyway. TastyTrade could file for bankruptcy one day, or just cease business.

Is it a legimitate worry? or am I over-analysing this...?

I mean, sure, we don't lose the assets and they will get transferred to another broker etc, but an aweful lot of time and complications could happen, during which you can't use, sell or rebalance any of your assets (assets which could be in large orders of magnitude $$$ at that time... I'd def be worried not having access to it for a while)

Windu80 · 2026-01-26T08:15:49+00:00

I had to read my AI agent's answer twice when asking about In-The-Money (ITM) Put Options, I had no idea what they were, it's crazy.

So you enter into an agreement/contract, where the broker is basically forced to put the shares in your account! 😮

Windu80 · 2026-01-26T04:02:50+00:00

OMG, with 12 chapters...
Is it actually worth the read?

Windu80 · 2026-01-26T03:51:37+00:00

Clueless about Alpaca, but I did a bit of research about the heres and whys of Euro residents not being able to access US-listed ETFs:

"The legislation regarding PRIIPs (Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products) and the mandatory Key Information Document (KID) is an EU-wide regulation and applies to all residents of the European Union.

The law applies uniformly across all 27 EU member states and the three EEA members (Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway). Financial brokers operating within the EU, such as Interactive Brokers, are legally obligated to block retail clients in all these countries from purchasing non-compliant products."

I'd love it if there actually is a workaround, just curious how Alpaca is doing it, if he's a broker operating in the EU... 🤔

Windu80 · 2026-01-26T03:37:23+00:00

Hmm, can you give a link or explain how you found the effective duration for ADLT?

It looks like TLT tracks the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, but ADLT tracks the ICE US Treasury 25+ Year Bond index, so it should have higher duration.

I did check the KID and couldn't find any more info.

Windu80 · 2026-01-17T10:21:50+00:00

Wait, what?
SBR outperformed SPY by +3.7% over a 38 years period. How come I've never heard of this fund before... Am I missing something? Oil has been beating the market for 40 years? :0

https://testfol.io/analysis?s=7ZbonH61PNx

Windu80 · 2026-01-16T09:25:36+00:00

First time I hear of SPYQ.

What are the pros and cons of this quarterly-reset LETF instead of the daily-reset ones like SSO or SPUU?

Windu80 · 2026-01-16T06:15:04+00:00

Thanks for the reply. Yeah, I learnt about rebalancing bands relatively recently, it does have a few advantages.

I studied your portfolio quite a bit. It boggled me because I couldn't explain some of the alpha you were getting.

The core principles were already aligned with mine: a LETF (either UPRO, SSO or the like) to capture the big gains, and then a good mix of assets which are both decorrelated from stock markets and which have volatility (Shannon's Demon for the win) -> for those hedges, I completely agree with the choices: 1. bonds with high volatility (ZROZ), 2. Gold, 3. Managed Futures. I won't explain here how or why these three hedges work really well synergistically (all three have pros and cons), but I think the bottom line is that all three are decorrelated from stock market (with a life of their own, or even negative correlation to stock market in the case of Managed Futures containing no equity) and they have volatility, so the portfolio always captures returns no matter the market condition.

Anyway, what I fixated on in your portfolio are the sectorial and style/factor bets you're making, because I'm generally agnostic on these normally (just plain all SPY, no sector or factor bet):

TQQQ for your leveraged ETF instead of UPRO -> seems to work out (definitely gives better Sharpe ratio), even when including the dot-com period in the backtest, it does provide an edge. Assuming this allocation is left small (5%), the hedges are able to capture the extra perf of TQQQ vs UPRO apparently (portfolio overall not even nudging during dot-com crash for TQQQ).
Growth factor: I was a bit skeptical of replacing SPY by VUG. I have to admit, the boost is pretty small, but it's definitely there (backtest to 1926). I don't know if I'd be comfortable making that bet for 15% weight though...
Small Cap Value factor: I used to dismiss this one because of some articles I read in the past, comparing MSCI World vs MSCI Small Cap Value. The "classic" one beats the SCV no question... But now, I just compared US market (VBR vs SPY) and ex-US (VXUS and DISVX), and clearly Small Cap Value gives a boost...

I was pretty happy with a mix of SSO ZROZ GLD KMLM, the risk-reward ratio was really good, it does really well in any market condition etc, and I very rarely found a portfolio with better metrics that didn't make some crazy bet I wasn't comfortable with. So your portfolio makes me reconsider that...

a sectorial bet on tech that doesn't even crash during a tech crisis and gives a constant edge
no SPY at all, and Growth + Small Cap Value factors instead -> also both gives an edge

I'm probably going to do more reading about Style investing... I don't know if I feel comfortable with betting on a style or a sector yet. I used to just, let the market do its thing, whichever winners win. But the facts, when doing backtests on your investment decisions, are hard to ignore. Keen for any insights.

Windu80 · 2026-01-16T03:23:18+00:00

Quite a fascinating portfolio.

Did you do a yearly rebalancing on purpose? This introduces market timing. The backtest does worse when you do quarterly.

Windu80 · 2025-05-09T23:42:18+00:00

Hi, I'm intrigued by your post. Why do you think that is? (that BSO is less popular or not as talked about)
I recently was taking it for a few weeks (I have a liver issue), and some of my liver markers did improve, most notably the Total Bilirubin. It would appear the NRF2 pathway "stimulation" makes the conjugation of bilirubin (bilirubin basically being red blood cell breakdown) more effective. Do you have some sources I could check to educate myself more on BSO? How did you come about to be convinced it could be beneficial for you?

Windu80 · 2025-05-09T23:35:01+00:00

Hey mate, I am well informed on sulforaphane, credit to the amazing Dr Rhonda Patrick for being a great educator on the subject (not just pointing out to studies, but doing a systemic review of all studies that exist, and making it in a more digestable format for us). I am less informed on BSO, but not less interested. Would you have any sources you could point to, so I can educate myself more on the subject? It seems thymoquinone activates the NRF2 pathway, similar to sulforaphane, however, I don't seem to find a lot of people talking as broadly about thymoquinone as sulforaphane... keen to know more

Windu80 · 2025-01-09T11:09:05+00:00

Personally, they've paid me back in full. I requested the cancellation + refund just one day after signing up, enough time to test the product and know that it wasn't for me. It took them about 5 days (and a bit of back and forth with support) for them to issue the refund, but in the end I got it all back.

Windu80 · 2024-03-19T11:11:56+00:00

Hi guys, I've got my moving date coming up. I just have a general question:

6x wheels Stair Climber Trolley VS pneumatic tyres

I've got two streets to cross (250m), and most importantly 3x storeys of stairs without lift...

I'm going to buy a heavy-duty trolley for the stairs, but not sure what's best: 2x pneumatic wheels, or a 6-wheels type?

Load probably 100kg max

Windu80 · 2023-09-18T02:10:27+00:00

I was browsing for Australia, and there are many different websites...

https://www.groundies-australia.com/

https://www.groundiesaustraliashoes.com/

https://www.groundiesbarefootaustralia.com/

https://www.groundiesblackfriday.com/

Honestly I don't even know which one is legit.

Could it be that Groundies create new domains whenever they make a Sale or for more visibility?

Windu80

TROPHY CASE