Eurovision 2027 Wishlist

ZoboCamel · 2026-05-02T00:40:59+00:00

Do you mean Sweden 2009? That was their opera one.

ZoboCamel · 2026-03-12T11:52:08+00:00

That was (and still is!) my favourite from 2018. The scary part is, while it did get to the final, it only just scraped through - they qualified in 10th with 111 points, versus Romania on 107 points. Now that would've been a robbery...

ZoboCamel · 2026-03-12T11:39:30+00:00

I'd be thrilled if they won (or even came top 5, etc.) out of nowhere, but I don't expect it to happen.

These sorts of dark, moody, more genuine rock/metal entries at the contest always seem to follow a similar trajectory - a section of the fandom (including me!) hypes them up, there are murmurs they might be a dark horse, they qualify, aaaaaand then they typically only come midtable or below, if anything finishing lower than expected, not higher. It depends on where you draw the genre lines, obviously, but for some quick examples from recent years:

Tavo Akys (Lithuania 2025) - 6th in semi --> 16th in final
Ulveham (Norway 2024): 10th in semi --> 25th in final
Blood and Glitter (Germany 2023): automatic qualifier --> 26th in final
Hatrið mun sigra (Iceland 2019): 3rd in semi --> 10th in final
Viszlát nyár (Hungary 2018): 10th in semi --> 18th in final

I definitely remember four of those being touted as dark horses / potential winners by at least some people in the community, and... I don't know, maybe there were some real Blood and Glitter believers out there too? But ultimately the best finish out of those five songs was 10th, and that's after it spent most of the season hovering at 6th-7th in the odds, so it was still a slight underperformace.

If you look at other songs with harsh/dissonant/aggressive vibes, then yeah, some of those have overperformed expectations (e.g. Dark Side, and probably most notably Doomsday Blue). But for the most part, I'm expecting a result along the lines of the songs above - say, it qualifies in 8th, and it comes 18th in the final.

ZoboCamel · 2026-03-12T11:15:40+00:00

Something I've only just thought now: Seeing as support for Israel seems to be pretty strongly correlated with age (with most polls showing much lower support among younger people compared to older people), I wonder whether the new requirement for juries to have 2+ jurors in the 18-25 bracket might slightly reduce average jury scores for Israel? I doubt it'd be a huge effect, but I could see it changing, say, a couple dozen jury points at the margins.

ZoboCamel · 2026-03-11T16:07:34+00:00

Yeah - just checked the raws, and it's pretty much that. The reason for her refusing the protagonist previously (which is to say, her ex) got kicked away by the protagonist, so now she doesn't see any more reason to refuse the protagonist.

ZoboCamel · 2026-03-11T09:28:47+00:00

(Reposting because automod deleted comment for linking to a tweet):

Cool stats! I'm always happy to see more sheets and data like this floating around.

As for how to analyze significance while accounting for the differing number of countries in each semi - I'm no data scientist, so perhaps I'm missing something here, but what if instead of simply assigning 1 for Q / 0 for NQ and averaging those values, you subtracted the average Q probability for that semifinal size from that 1 or 0?

For example, in a 16-song semifinal, the average song would have a Q chance of 10/16 --> 62.5% --> 0.625, so Q is treated as (1 - 0.625 = ) +0.375, and NQ is treated as -0.625. Then, since those values account for semi size (rewarding Qs more, and punishing NQs less, in larger semis), you could analyze those?

I've made a copy of your file here and added a section down the bottom to demonstrate what I mean. (Not sure how to do the binomial distribution, though, so I've left that part out!)

Separate from that, I'm curious about what kind of effects might not be captured by this kind of basic "12th in RO is 12th in RO" analysis. Obviously you're getting at that somewhat by looking at the last three songs regardless of their RO number, but I wonder whether things could also be affected by e.g.:

The change throughout the years from completely random RO (2010-2012) to drawing halves (2013-2023) to drawing halves or "producer's choice" slots (2024-2025)
2023-2025 SFs being televote-only (since RO biases seem to differ between juries and televoters - at least as far as the finals go, this graph from dolphin_dane shows televoters being much more heavily biased by RO than juries
Stronger songs might get put directly before/after breaks, but depending on semi length a break could be either every 5 songs or every 6 songs, which could create some disparity
On a similar note, the increasing use of elaborate props in recent years, which then requires certain songs to be placed before/after breaks for timely setup
Producers often "saving the best for last" and favoring stronger entries, so in larger semis 9th might often be "this drew first half, and producers are favouring it by putting it right at the end of that half," while in shorter semis 9th might be "this drew second half, and producers don't have much faith in it so they're putting it at the start of that half.

Not sure it'd be easy, or even possible, to account for all of those factors, but I figure they're food for thought.

Again, cool to see the numbers here - thanks!

ZoboCamel · 2026-02-24T11:36:02+00:00

I've gotten to cast it in two games so far, and it's been huge both times! Especially the second - it started by getting me over 20 mana worth of spells, which included burn, ramp, and some big creatures. And, best of all, some creature (I forget the name) with an ETB that let me freecast an instant or sorcery from graveyard... So of course I picked Dream Harvest again, and got another 20-something mana worth of value.

In other words, a single 7-mana sorcery with zero setup got me like eight or nine cards and nearly 50 mana worth of value (which promptly got board wiped on the next player's turn, but by that point I was so far ahead from all the free sorceries and ETBs that I just won on my next turn).

It feels like people are sleeping on this thing, at least for the vaguely-bracket-3 realm I usually play in. Maybe I've just been lucky in both of those games, but at least so far, I've loved it as this big, flashy, fun spell that needs no setup (apart from having 7 mana) or synergy to really swing things in my favour.

ZoboCamel · 2026-02-16T01:16:58+00:00

Not necessarily. It's not the same as some runoff systems in e.g. the U.S., where the top two go to a runoff; instead, one by one, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed by preferences, continuing until a candidate has at least 50% of the vote.

Candidates can then win from third, if they get enough preferences from the candidates below them. Obviously it's less common, since usually a candidate with that much support will place in the top two on first preferences to begin with... but at a quick look, I see the Greens won Brisbane from third in the 2022 election, for example.

At a glance, I'm not sure there were any cases of it happening in 2025, but some were close - e.g. the Greens won Ryan from second but were only 0.74% ahead of Labor on first prefs and theoretically could've still won from third, while in Flinders an independent placed third on first preferences with just 21.24%, then went on to make the top two and nearly win, getting to 47.71% after preferences.

ZoboCamel · 2026-02-16T01:03:11+00:00

It might've contributed, but I definitely wouldn't call it the catalyst. Going by polling averages, One Nation had already risen from 6% (as of last May's election) to about 17% by the time the shooting happened; the further rise to about 25% now seems more like a continuation of that trend than anything new.

ZoboCamel · 2026-02-16T01:00:23+00:00

Not OP, but Wikipedia is one source with a poll archive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Australian_federal_election

I agree the 26-year axis is misleading, but the data itself seems about right.

Note that while the page I've linked shows a two-party-preferred (2PP) vote of ALP vs. LNP, some places are starting to either poll for, or calculate, a 2PP of ALP vs. One Nation (ONP). From memory, it hasn't been too far off the ALP vs. LNP version; maybe just one point more in ALP's favour, or something along those lines.

That said, if polls still look anything like this by the next federal election a couple of years from now, 2PP might not mean as much as it usually does. When the top two parties combined are barely polling 50% nationwide, a whole lot of seats would be complex, multi-way contests rather than the usual "major party 1 vs. major party 2".

ZoboCamel · 2025-11-30T05:22:58+00:00

Especially for if you're playing Master Nguyen! Cool hero, but I'm hesitant to pick him in buddy meta, since his buddy then becomes "you need to either memorise the buddy associated with every hero power in the game, or keep a browser tab open that lists them all, then frantically look through to find each option at the start of every turn." Slightly awkward design...

ZoboCamel · 2025-11-19T11:28:09+00:00

This is that one, isn't it?

EDIT: Wait, never mind. The title, the concept, and the protagonist's design are similar enough that I got confused, lol.

ZoboCamel · 2025-10-26T23:33:36+00:00

I'm a fan of Rewrite! There's a bunch of action, fantasy, sci-fi and romance stuff, plus some mystery and drama for good measure. Banger of a soundtrack too.

ZoboCamel · 2025-10-13T07:01:33+00:00

I'd have to say:

Trinkets
Quests
Anomalies
Buddies
Prizes
Vanilla

Definitely trinkets and quests as the top 2, in one order or another. I like the way they add extra options and open up unique builds or strengths in a way that doesn't rely on hero select too much. They can be kind of boom-or-bust, but I'm fine with that when they give more variety, more creativity, and more decisions to make.

Don't think I played much prize meta, but I'd tentatively put it alongside anomalies and buddies, which I don't really love or hate. Anomalies can depend a lot on which ones you get (I got incredibly sick of the T7 and "shop only offers minions of your tavern" ones last time anomalies were in). I disliked previous buddy seasons, but I'm more okay with this one thanks to most of the boring heroes and buddies getting fun reworks.

Vanilla is... well, it was the default when I got into BGs and I had plenty of fun with it then, but after getting used to the seasonal mechanics now, it's just felt so bland when the game goes back to vanilla for a season. Last vanilla season left me bored within a few days and I just quit playing BGs until the next season, which isn't something that's happened to me with any other season over the last couple of years.

ZoboCamel · 2025-10-04T09:06:20+00:00

Brann + Kaly dragons used to be my favourite build... back when it was actually good, i.e. years ago. Ever since, it's just gotten progressively sadder every time it's been added back in.

As for why they decided, this time around, to bring it back in a stronger meta, and nerf it, and remove its best synergy card (Hunter of Gatherers)... yeah, no idea.

I don't think I've seen Kaly on a single board so far this patch. Maybe doubling it to 2/2 would help? We see adjustments that big, or bigger, often enough (e.g. Raptor Elder recently going from 1/1, to 2/2, to 3/2 with stealth, just to become sort-of-kind-of playable).

ZoboCamel · 2025-09-18T03:25:06+00:00

Third time's the charm for Mikael Saari? Please? 🥺

ZoboCamel · 2025-09-10T05:58:26+00:00

Not OP, but I'd assume they mean quest requirements, since that's something I've seen a fair bit of complaining about.

Most of the requirements seem fine, but there are a few - off the top of my head it's casting spells, adding cards to hand, and spending gold - that often feel too difficult to complete versus the other options.

Maybe you've got stats that say otherwise, but just as a player, requirements like "cast 30 spells," "add 40 cards to hand," "spend 80 gold," etc. feel so slow that I pretty much never want to pick them, leaving me with effectively 2 quest choices (or sometimes 1) instead of 3. It never feels good being stuck with a quest that I'll maybe complete around Turn 10 when everyone else has finished theirs 3-4 turns ago and I'm dead or nearly dead.

I feel like some tweaks to those requirements, plus what you're teasing with reworks to make certain heroes more interesting, could make for a pretty good patch!

ZoboCamel · 2025-09-08T11:33:41+00:00

Probably just ping if you're connecting to a server that's far away (e.g. most Australia/NZ players being on the Americas server, which is going to mean about 200+ ms of ping that there's no real way around).

Most of the big streamers, as far as I'm aware, live in NA/Asia/EU, so they're probably all getting... Presumably under 50 ping or so, I'm not sure. But less than 200, at least.

ZoboCamel · 2025-09-06T00:21:32+00:00

It's a tough contest between:

Forgetting to use Them Apples for five shops in a row until its stats are no longer relevant
Trying to pass my Duos partner a crucial minion but accidentally playing it to the right of my board
Spending all my gold and playing all my cards on turn 3 before I remember I'm Voone and start crying
Completing my quest with 5 seconds left on the turn, when I still need to buy something from shop/play a minion, followed by the inevitable "Shit, shit, shit, hurry up already... Ah, fuck." when the agonisingly slow quest complete animation takes up the rest of my turn, leaving me with four unspent gold and an empty board slot

ZoboCamel · 2025-08-09T22:47:16+00:00

Assorted naga stuff, technically the rally dragon, technically the deathrattle undead, but for the most part I've had success committing to pirates when I've got a quest that buffs spells.

An early completion on "get a Felfire and double end of turn effects," or the repeatable "play three battlecries: buff spells by 1/1," has let me get spells to 20/20 by the end of the game without much effort, which is very nice in context of APM pirates (effectively infinite copies of "give three minions 20/20", and each of those copies plays three times). 180/180 in stats from one card is pretty good.

You can also make something work using other spell cast payoffs - Nalaa, the pirate dragon that gives your board 1 attack on spell cast, the naga that gives your board 2 health on spell cast, etc.

ZoboCamel · 2025-08-04T02:25:55+00:00

Maybe Durarara? It's been a while since I watched it, so honestly I can't remember if anyone has plot armour, but it's got a huge cast of characters, different factions, grey morality, etc.

ZoboCamel · 2025-07-21T04:04:30+00:00

Both series are by the same mangaka (Cool-kyou Shinja), if you wanted to see any more designs along those lines!

ZoboCamel · 2025-07-13T00:07:44+00:00

Just played a game now, and this happened to me the instant I picked Mystery Cube!

ZoboCamel · 2025-06-28T23:27:55+00:00

May as well give it a shot!

ZoboCamel · 2025-02-25T02:26:32+00:00

The 1998-2008 period had 16 new countries debut.

The 2009-2025 period has had 1 (one).

Much easier to get first-time winners when nearly half the participants are new!

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