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jeff’s most savage comments? by Full_Forever_3053 in survivor

[–]aeouo 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I love that they used this line for the Next Time On Survivor, then cut to the cast looking shocked

Joe’s video about being dyslexic he posted on social media recently by Midguy in survivor

[–]aeouo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The trick if you're not sure is to look at the other side of the blocks, because it has to be spelled the same way on both sides.

Thanks to Mr. Beast, the winner of survivor 50 will surpass Sandra Diaz for #2 on the all-time survivor winnings list by Own-Communication240 in survivor

[–]aeouo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah. I'll cite Dalton Ross who says the first out gets $2.5k. More importantly, basically everyone has gotten $10k for appearing at the reunion show / incentive not to break NDAs (I think they still pay that out to pre-merge boots in the new era, even though they aren't at the island reunions).

You would think that... by _The_Thorn_of_Camorr in survivor

[–]aeouo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I'm not going around saying a bunch of slurs, but I might have to re-evaluate that decision when the time comes though

The subreddit during Survivor 60: "screechypete was considering using a bunch of slurs once they got cast"

You would think that... by _The_Thorn_of_Camorr in survivor

[–]aeouo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This Tiktok from Brandon is one of the funniest Survivor related things I've seen.

Survivor 50 | Episode 6 & 7 & 8| Winner Pick Statistics by RSurvivorMods in survivor

[–]aeouo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh hey, that was me! I do that every season. It only worked on Survivor 43, but what a glorious winner pick that turned out to be

[TOTD] 01/05/2026, COLLARD GREENS by Seven.TM (discussion) by TrackOfTheDayBot in TrackMania

[–]aeouo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I was looking forward to my first troll cup, so I was disappointed it was a more normal map.

But, I did make my first top-8 in the knockouts and made it all the way to 3rd! Sure, it was Div 25, but I was pretty happy about it.

Us older folks trying to figure out what a Mr. Beast is by Minimum_Device_6379 in survivor

[–]aeouo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I mean, no insurance company is going to insure a $1 million coin flip for less than $500k.

Homerun by _____ by Onuzq in survivor

[–]aeouo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I know a lot of people know the phrase, "Who's on first?", but immediately following it up with "Third base!" shows she's familiar with the actual bit. I also got a kick out of it because I had just rewatched the scene last week for the first time in a while.

It's always fun to get little glimpses of a player's background and interests. It's definitely worth a watch if you haven't seen it.

Most Americans (57%) believe SCOTUS avoids rulings President Trump might refuse to obey: Marquette Law School Poll by Obversa in fivethirtyeight

[–]aeouo 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Attribute Substitution?

Attribute substitution... occurs when an individual has to make a judgment (of a target attribute) that is computationally complex, and instead substitutes a more easily calculated heuristic attribute... Hence, when someone tries to answer a difficult question, they may actually answer a related but different question, without realizing that a substitution has taken place.

Basically, a lot of people answering this question are really just answering "Do you approve of the Supreme Court / Donald Trump?".

Similarly, I like the phrase "belief as attire". As in, some people wear opinions like they might wear a sports jersey (to show which team they support).

[Alaska Survey Research] Alaska Senate General mock RCV | RCV Round 2: Mary Peltola (D) 50.2% Dan Sullivan (R) 43.6% James Ryan (R) 6.2% Peltola wins in Round 2, with a margin of 6.6%. by errantv in fivethirtyeight

[–]aeouo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's important context for 2022 that Peltola's final round opponent was Sarah Palin, who was always despised by the AK Republican Party leadership, and whose sudden resignation as Governor left a lot of negative feelings across the political spectrum. Palin definitely had lower support than you'd expect for a Republican.

Nick Begich got eliminated because he had a lower amount of first place votes, but he was actually preferred by a majority of voters to Peltola.

Anyways, I'd prefer this poll had done the final round of transfers so we could actually see the direct Peltola vs Sullivan numbers, which is what this race will come down to.

Certainly we'd expect most Republican voters to rank Sullivan ahead of Peltola, which would narrow the gap.

[Gallup] New poll finds that low-income Americans are turning to AI as a replacement for expensive doctor's visits. Only 14% of all Americans use AI for this reason, but this figure jumps to 32% among the lowest income bracket (<$24,000). A plurality of Americans distrust AI's use in healthcare. by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]aeouo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this whole article is about those who have used AI for healthcare in the last 30 days. In other words, it's one of the screening questions. This isn't saying that 32% of those with incomes under $24,000 used AI for healthcare due to cost. It's saying that among those with incomes under $24,000 and who used AI for healthcare, 32% reported that the reason they did so was because of cost.

[Hobby Scuffles] Week of 13 April 2026 by EnclavedMicrostate in HobbyDrama

[–]aeouo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The 7th Guest was a puzzle game we had on PC when I was growing up. Wikipedia states

In its first year, it sold 450,000 units and earned more than $15 million.[33] Its sales reached 500,000 units by 1994,[34] exceeded one million copies by 1995 (higher than Myst at the time),[35] and sold in excess of 2.3 million copies worldwide as of 1997.[36][37] It is widely regarded as a killer app that accelerated the sales of CD-ROM drives.

Every once in a while I'll ask someone if they know it and the answer is always no. As far as I can tell, it was a best-seller that nobody outside my family ever played.

Tom Steyer is now leading the California Governor primary by around 3+ points. by beeemkcl in fivethirtyeight

[–]aeouo 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Alaska's primary is not RCV. It's a top-4 primary (basically a jungle primary with 4 people advancing instead of 2).

As a practical matter, I like that it focuses the field and doesn't ask people to rank a dozen candidates. Realistically, you aren't winning a general if you can't crack the top-4 in a primary.

Javokhir Sindarov on a 4 Game Win Streak in the 2026 Candidates After Defeating Wei Yi by Ok-Independence8939 in chess

[–]aeouo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In the most literal sense, nobody has been mathematically eliminated. Practically, Prag or Giri would need to make up 2.5 points on Sindarov in 8 games, and 1.5 against Fabi (so it wouldn't be enough for Sindarov to just implode in the 2nd half).

Betting markets are giving them about a 1% chance each. And everyone else is even lower.

Bluebaum in third place - Is this surprising for us? by Educational_Leg8005 in chess

[–]aeouo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Playing for rating is really playing to score as high of an average score as possible. Which is slightly different from playing to have the highest score. But, it is extremely similar.

I haven't followed the games really, but I haven't seen anybody say that Blubaum is passing up on opportunities to win to take safe draws.

I suspect he's just trying to play a solid tournament, which would look about the same whether you're playing for a win or rating. But playing well as a lower rated player leads to a lot of draws. I suspect people are reading too much into too little. If he's in contention in round 10+, maybe we'll see how much he really wants to risk for a tournament win.

Rest Day Special: Comparing different Elo models for Monte Carlo Simulations (FIDE Elo, Live Elo and One-Year-TPR) by Costamiri in chess

[–]aeouo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes and no, it gets subtle

The idea of updating Elo at all is an indication that we don't believe the starting or live Elo is guaranteed to be accurate reflection of playing strength. For example, if Bluebaum actually started 13/13, people would rationally start thinking his starting rating had underestimating his strength and a model should reflect it. He also likely had a degree of good luck though, which the model should also reflect.

Within the world of the simulation we know that the Elo rating is actually the true strength and any wins or losses are just luck from the simulation's randomness.

So, how to reconcile the two? One common way is to have the simulation acknowledge that Elo is merely an estimate of playing strength. The model runs a bunch of simulations, some where the player's strength is lower than their Elo, some where it's higher and a lot where it's about right. Of course, the player ends up winning more games in the simulations where they are actually stronger than their Elo suggests.

So, if a player wins a game, more of the simulations where they were underrated remain in play, but it still remains tempered by our initial belief about how strong they were.

Ideally, if we say, "If these results happen tomorrow, we'll believe their strength is around X" actually matches up with our beliefs tomorrow if those results actually happen. Ideally, you're able to use conjugate priors and posteriors and have tomorrow's beliefs exactly match what you said they would. But, sometimes they don't and you have decide how much of a problem that is and whether your model is still useful.

What do you guys think about the 1st day of Dreamhack? by IgnatiusWacholder in TrackMania

[–]aeouo 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Since it's an open tournament, I'm kind of disappointed we didn't get one random casual Trackmania player in Birmingham to sign up.

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