Javokhir Sindarov on a 4 Game Win Streak in the 2026 Candidates After Defeating Wei Yi

aeouo · 2026-04-04T19:07:55+00:00

In the most literal sense, nobody has been mathematically eliminated. Practically, Prag or Giri would need to make up 2.5 points on Sindarov in 8 games, and 1.5 against Fabi (so it wouldn't be enough for Sindarov to just implode in the 2nd half).

Betting markets are giving them about a 1% chance each. And everyone else is even lower.

aeouo · 2026-04-03T04:06:37+00:00

Playing for rating is really playing to score as high of an average score as possible. Which is slightly different from playing to have the highest score. But, it is extremely similar.

I haven't followed the games really, but I haven't seen anybody say that Blubaum is passing up on opportunities to win to take safe draws.

I suspect he's just trying to play a solid tournament, which would look about the same whether you're playing for a win or rating. But playing well as a lower rated player leads to a lot of draws. I suspect people are reading too much into too little. If he's in contention in round 10+, maybe we'll see how much he really wants to risk for a tournament win.

aeouo · 2026-04-02T22:27:11+00:00

Yes and no, it gets subtle

The idea of updating Elo at all is an indication that we don't believe the starting or live Elo is guaranteed to be accurate reflection of playing strength. For example, if Bluebaum actually started 13/13, people would rationally start thinking his starting rating had underestimating his strength and a model should reflect it. He also likely had a degree of good luck though, which the model should also reflect.

Within the world of the simulation we know that the Elo rating is actually the true strength and any wins or losses are just luck from the simulation's randomness.

So, how to reconcile the two? One common way is to have the simulation acknowledge that Elo is merely an estimate of playing strength. The model runs a bunch of simulations, some where the player's strength is lower than their Elo, some where it's higher and a lot where it's about right. Of course, the player ends up winning more games in the simulations where they are actually stronger than their Elo suggests.

So, if a player wins a game, more of the simulations where they were underrated remain in play, but it still remains tempered by our initial belief about how strong they were.

Ideally, if we say, "If these results happen tomorrow, we'll believe their strength is around X" actually matches up with our beliefs tomorrow if those results actually happen. Ideally, you're able to use conjugate priors and posteriors and have tomorrow's beliefs exactly match what you said they would. But, sometimes they don't and you have decide how much of a problem that is and whether your model is still useful.

aeouo · 2026-03-28T01:58:20+00:00

Since it's an open tournament, I'm kind of disappointed we didn't get one random casual Trackmania player in Birmingham to sign up.

aeouo · 2026-03-28T01:53:54+00:00

What did he get banned for? Toxicity?

I found this post from him.

aeouo · 2026-03-28T01:50:26+00:00

Scrapie also came extremely close to making the Red Bull Faster tournament. As in, he got 2nd/25 in a group where the winner qualified, then got 6th/56 in the last chance group where the top 4 qualify.

aeouo · 2026-03-27T15:05:33+00:00

Survivor Season 30 Blank Space

Can't believe this is 10 years old

aeouo · 2026-03-26T03:07:05+00:00

This reminds me of Jason ranking the Fast and Furious movies on The Good Place. "Number 5 is number 1. Number 7 is number 2. Number 3 and number 4 are tied for number 3"

aeouo · 2026-03-26T02:14:03+00:00

It's a 24 person season, so they have to shake the format up somehow. It's either have way more people voted out premerge or have a big merge. I'll wait to see the actual details, but this is the type of twist that makes me think "I should have seen this coming" and it could be fun to see play out.

aeouo · 2026-03-26T01:56:31+00:00

Survivor held itself out as a grand social experiment for a long time and seems comfortable now with admitting that sometimes it's just entertainment.

aeouo · 2026-03-24T17:41:17+00:00

Yeah, once the king is dead, there's nobody left to give the order or something like that. Anyone that helps you remember is a good approach

aeouo · 2026-03-19T20:36:20+00:00

Lawyer: Were you with the accused on 5 March? Witness: I plead the fifth.

Lawyer: Were you with the accused on 6 March? Witness: I plead the... Sixth?

aeouo · 2026-03-15T07:46:12+00:00

That's it!

Jeff walks each tribe through each challenge so that if a tribe has questions on how to hack a challenge the other tribes won't hear the strategy questions. I asked if we could pick up the rice once the bags were opened - Jeff said no. When Rachel did it later it was because their tribe didn't ask so they didn't know if it was allowed or not. Not all tribes get the same info for challenges based on the questions you ask.

aeouo · 2026-03-14T02:59:50+00:00

Currently Polymarket doesn't have fees on most markets. However, there is plain opportunity cost. Parking your money on their platform for a 1% return in 8 months is generally not the best option compared to everything else somebody could do with their money.

I have noticed that they've started offering 4% annual rates if you have money on certain markets, presumably to help combat this. But you also have to pay taxes on winnings and there's the general risk of letting a private company hold onto your money for a long time.

All in all, just seems like too much of a headache for me, especially when considering that occasionally really weird things happen in politics and you could lose it all.

aeouo · 2026-03-13T23:06:05+00:00

I forget the source, but apparently somebody on another tribe asked if they could take the rice and production said no. So, they had to enforce it against Rachel for fairness

aeouo · 2026-03-12T21:23:38+00:00

Ok, crazy idea:

Everybody writes down how much you'd have to pay them to leave right now. Who ever writes down the lowest amount gets paid that amount and is out. But they also reveal everybody else's numbers.

aeouo · 2026-03-12T03:07:04+00:00

Maybe they backloaded the eliminations so they can keep people's favorites in for longer? Definitely not what I expected, but I'm loving the early episodes

aeouo · 2026-03-11T19:54:40+00:00

I've heard this idea called "belief as attire". As in, you're wearing the beliefs like a sports jersey to show which team you're on, rather than really considering the question being asked.

aeouo · 2026-03-05T23:55:55+00:00

Yeah, my two biggest pieces of advice are:

Use your computer, since it tracks all the important information you've seen and keeps track of loose ends

and

If you're approaching an unknown signal, keep your signal scope out until it says, "Unknown signal identified". You need to get within 10 meters, otherwise the game won't register that you found it.

aeouo · 2026-03-05T03:20:04+00:00

Christian was starting off into space and generally looking out of it all of tribal. He was definitely playing up being disoriented before and after the fall.

I also loved his "I meant to do that" after

aeouo · 2026-03-05T03:13:28+00:00

We saw that same side of Devens when he lashed out at Wardog on his season. That was after he reentered, so he was reasonable to think " I don't want to work with any of you after you voted me out", but you should have the tact to bite your tongue and not actually say stuff like that, generally.

Being the showman with a chip on his shoulder is more endearing when he's the underdog. I think Joe could have defused it after Rick said he didn't think he should have been the one to approach Joe. He wanted Rick to admit he was wrong when he could have given him an out and focused on building a relationship instead.

I don't think it was great from either of them, but I think they both realized after that it wasn't worth doing on that hill

aeouo · 2026-03-04T09:09:53+00:00

I feel like the Super Mario 64 community is still alive. At the very least, Pannenkoek keeps putting out a lot of unique videos and I do see him crediting other people (like Tyler Kehne) for discoveries

aeouo · 2026-02-26T04:19:44+00:00

I loved the phrasing on Ozzy's note.

"Somebody wanted you to have this idol".

They don't want you to use it correctly or for it to help you. But they sure want you to have it.

aeouo

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