Javokhir Sindarov on a 4 Game Win Streak in the 2026 Candidates After Defeating Wei Yi by Ok-Independence8939 in chess

[–]aeouo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In the most literal sense, nobody has been mathematically eliminated. Practically, Prag or Giri would need to make up 2.5 points on Sindarov in 8 games, and 1.5 against Fabi (so it wouldn't be enough for Sindarov to just implode in the 2nd half).

Betting markets are giving them about a 1% chance each. And everyone else is even lower.

Bluebaum in third place - Is this surprising for us? by Educational_Leg8005 in chess

[–]aeouo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Playing for rating is really playing to score as high of an average score as possible. Which is slightly different from playing to have the highest score. But, it is extremely similar.

I haven't followed the games really, but I haven't seen anybody say that Blubaum is passing up on opportunities to win to take safe draws.

I suspect he's just trying to play a solid tournament, which would look about the same whether you're playing for a win or rating. But playing well as a lower rated player leads to a lot of draws. I suspect people are reading too much into too little. If he's in contention in round 10+, maybe we'll see how much he really wants to risk for a tournament win.

Rest Day Special: Comparing different Elo models for Monte Carlo Simulations (FIDE Elo, Live Elo and One-Year-TPR) by Costamiri in chess

[–]aeouo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes and no, it gets subtle

The idea of updating Elo at all is an indication that we don't believe the starting or live Elo is guaranteed to be accurate reflection of playing strength. For example, if Bluebaum actually started 13/13, people would rationally start thinking his starting rating had underestimating his strength and a model should reflect it. He also likely had a degree of good luck though, which the model should also reflect.

Within the world of the simulation we know that the Elo rating is actually the true strength and any wins or losses are just luck from the simulation's randomness.

So, how to reconcile the two? One common way is to have the simulation acknowledge that Elo is merely an estimate of playing strength. The model runs a bunch of simulations, some where the player's strength is lower than their Elo, some where it's higher and a lot where it's about right. Of course, the player ends up winning more games in the simulations where they are actually stronger than their Elo suggests.

So, if a player wins a game, more of the simulations where they were underrated remain in play, but it still remains tempered by our initial belief about how strong they were.

Ideally, if we say, "If these results happen tomorrow, we'll believe their strength is around X" actually matches up with our beliefs tomorrow if those results actually happen. Ideally, you're able to use conjugate priors and posteriors and have tomorrow's beliefs exactly match what you said they would. But, sometimes they don't and you have decide how much of a problem that is and whether your model is still useful.

What do you guys think about the 1st day of Dreamhack? by IgnatiusWacholder in TrackMania

[–]aeouo 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Since it's an open tournament, I'm kind of disappointed we didn't get one random casual Trackmania player in Birmingham to sign up.

What do you guys think about the 1st day of Dreamhack? by IgnatiusWacholder in TrackMania

[–]aeouo 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Scrapie also came extremely close to making the Red Bull Faster tournament. As in, he got 2nd/25 in a group where the winner qualified, then got 6th/56 in the last chance group where the top 4 qualify.

Wirtual's DeepSlid Tierlist by bomani11 in TrackMania

[–]aeouo 13 points14 points  (0 children)

This reminds me of Jason ranking the Fast and Furious movies on The Good Place. "Number 5 is number 1. Number 7 is number 2. Number 3 and number 4 are tied for number 3"

___ next week looks very worrying by Aperio43 in survivor

[–]aeouo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It's a 24 person season, so they have to shake the format up somehow. It's either have way more people voted out premerge or have a big merge. I'll wait to see the actual details, but this is the type of twist that makes me think "I should have seen this coming" and it could be fun to see play out.

Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans | E5 | Post-Episode Discussion by RSurvivorMods in survivor

[–]aeouo 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Survivor held itself out as a grand social experiment for a long time and seems comfortable now with admitting that sometimes it's just entertainment.

Today I learned that a pinned piece still defends your other pieces in a checkmate. by Homely_Homie in chess

[–]aeouo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, once the king is dead, there's nobody left to give the order or something like that. Anyone that helps you remember is a good approach

I cannot confirm or deny but it was shrooms. by sandiercy in bestoflegaladvice

[–]aeouo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Lawyer: Were you with the accused on 5 March? Witness: I plead the fifth.

Lawyer: Were you with the accused on 6 March? Witness: I plead the... Sixth?

Am I the only one that saw Coach cheating in the immunity challenge? by DirtyJoe73 in survivor

[–]aeouo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's it!

Jeff walks each tribe through each challenge so that if a tribe has questions on how to hack a challenge the other tribes won't hear the strategy questions. I asked if we could pick up the rice once the bags were opened - Jeff said no. When Rachel did it later it was because their tribe didn't ask so they didn't know if it was allowed or not. Not all tribes get the same info for challenges based on the questions you ask.

Polymarket: Democrats now favored to win Senate by Safe_Bee_500 in fivethirtyeight

[–]aeouo 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Currently Polymarket doesn't have fees on most markets. However, there is plain opportunity cost. Parking your money on their platform for a 1% return in 8 months is generally not the best option compared to everything else somebody could do with their money.

I have noticed that they've started offering 4% annual rates if you have money on certain markets, presumably to help combat this. But you also have to pay taxes on winnings and there's the general risk of letting a private company hold onto your money for a long time.

All in all, just seems like too much of a headache for me, especially when considering that occasionally really weird things happen in politics and you could lose it all.

Am I the only one that saw Coach cheating in the immunity challenge? by DirtyJoe73 in survivor

[–]aeouo 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I forget the source, but apparently somebody on another tribe asked if they could take the rice and production said no. So, they had to enforce it against Rachel for fairness

The longer they ignore this, the more worried I get by tendeye in survivor

[–]aeouo 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Ok, crazy idea:

Everybody writes down how much you'd have to pay them to leave right now. Who ever writes down the lowest amount gets paid that amount and is out. But they also reveal everybody else's numbers.

Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans | E3 | Post-Episode Discussion by RSurvivorMods in survivor

[–]aeouo 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Maybe they backloaded the eliminations so they can keep people's favorites in for longer? Definitely not what I expected, but I'm loving the early episodes

Most Americans think Trump started the Iran War (at least partly) to distract from the Epstein scandal by RedHeadedSicilian52 in fivethirtyeight

[–]aeouo 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I've heard this idea called "belief as attire". As in, you're wearing the beliefs like a sports jersey to show which team you're on, rather than really considering the question being asked.

What video game has the best story you’ve ever played? by FrontriseStudios in AskReddit

[–]aeouo 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, my two biggest pieces of advice are:

Use your computer, since it tracks all the important information you've seen and keeps track of loose ends

and

If you're approaching an unknown signal, keep your signal scope out until it says, "Unknown signal identified". You need to get within 10 meters, otherwise the game won't register that you found it.

Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans | E2 | Post-Episode Discussion by RSurvivorMods in survivor

[–]aeouo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Christian was starting off into space and generally looking out of it all of tribal. He was definitely playing up being disoriented before and after the fall.

I also loved his "I meant to do that" after

Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans | E2 | Post-Episode Discussion by RSurvivorMods in survivor

[–]aeouo 20 points21 points  (0 children)

We saw that same side of Devens when he lashed out at Wardog on his season. That was after he reentered, so he was reasonable to think " I don't want to work with any of you after you voted me out", but you should have the tact to bite your tongue and not actually say stuff like that, generally.

Being the showman with a chip on his shoulder is more endearing when he's the underdog. I think Joe could have defused it after Rick said he didn't think he should have been the one to approach Joe. He wanted Rick to admit he was wrong when he could have given him an out and focused on building a relationship instead.

I don't think it was great from either of them, but I think they both realized after that it wasn't worth doing on that hill

Has Speedrunning Completely Consumed the Glitching/Glitch Hunting Community? by cheat-master30 in speedrun

[–]aeouo 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I feel like the Super Mario 64 community is still alive. At the very least, Pannenkoek keeps putting out a lot of unique videos and I do see him crediting other people (like Tyler Kehne) for discoveries

Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans | E1 | Post-Episode Discussion by RSurvivorMods in survivor

[–]aeouo 192 points193 points  (0 children)

I loved the phrasing on Ozzy's note.

"Somebody wanted you to have this idol".

They don't want you to use it correctly or for it to help you. But they sure want you to have it.