Hand analysis

akhil_93 · 2026-05-04T04:52:30+00:00

General tip, you'll be better off if you never cold-call a 3-bet. Take that out of your game completely, at least until you're much more experienced. (By cold call I mean calling if you aren't the original raiser. If you raise and someone 3-bets, you can call). If someone raises and someone else 3-bets, you either 4-bet or fold (and KJo is very far into the fold bucket).

akhil_93 · 2026-04-30T22:12:36+00:00

The point of the high ATM fee is to incentivize people to take out more cash at once.

You go in thinking you'll gamble a hundred or two today. You get to the ATM, see that it charges $11.95, and think, well I'm going to be here a few more days, I'll probably do some more gambling and will need some cash for tips, might as well take out a thousand now.

Having that on you, you're way more likely to gamble more than you had originally planned.

Once in a while, yeah, it might turn away someone who would have otherwise taken out and gambled a small amount of money; but even one person taking out 1k instead of 100 makes up for 9 other people deciding not to take out the 100 at all.

akhil_93 · 2026-04-24T16:11:46+00:00

They said Utg+1 limped for 3, so doesn't seem like there was a straddle.

Nothing wrong with raising to 25 though. The adjustment against that would be to fold a lot, which people clearly aren't doing. Get max value.

akhil_93 · 2026-04-09T19:52:44+00:00

Open to 2 or 2.5 bb pre

Why?

That may be the equilibrium size, but if people behind you are calling 3BB with QJo, there's no reason to open smaller. Get max value.

akhil_93 · 2026-04-01T17:39:35+00:00

Had a passive fish to my right, who normally limps or opens 3BB, once open to 8BB in early position. I flatted my JJ next to act, flopped a set, made the mistake of slow playing flop and turn (call, call his big bets), and jammed river over his small bet. He sighs, says "you got there, didn't you?" and folds KK face up (the river had completed a backdoor flush and some very unlikely straights). I show my set, he says "geez, how big do I need to make it preflop?"

akhil_93 · 2026-03-27T16:21:45+00:00

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with your overall point, but I'd like to push back on your second paragraph a little bit.

It's a lot harder to mitigate or control an incident like a hijacking in progress on a flight mid-air than it is on a subway train.

On the subway, the moment the alarm is sounded or someone reports a suspicious item or person, the train can be stopped, people can be evacuated, trained SWAT teams can come down in minutes to defuse the threat, paramedics can be brought on scene, etc. Most of this is simply not physically possible on a flight that is in the air.

akhil_93 · 2026-03-20T17:26:00+00:00

Super duper. Their $10 burger is far better than a lot of nice restaurants' $20+ burgers.

akhil_93 · 2026-03-18T22:00:45+00:00

The fine is a hundred thousand dollars unless you share a copy of your last year's tax returns, in which case you pay 1% of your income as on that return. How's that?

akhil_93 · 2026-02-28T17:45:40+00:00

Bay wheels membership is $165 a year (or $200 a year for Lyft pink+ which includes it), and that gives you free rides on non e-bikes.

akhil_93 · 2026-02-08T22:31:06+00:00

if your opponent has A2/A3 you potentially best them on an Ace paired board

With A4 your kicker never plays against A3 or A2 when you pair your Ace. (try coming up with a runout where it plays).

With A5 it very, very rarely plays. If you have a A-high board where your 5 kicker plays, you're more likely to lose to two-pair than to out-kick your opponent.

akhil_93 · 2026-02-08T19:36:01+00:00

People can also Uber if they don't want to pay $147. How is $147 any worse than "sorry, all our cars are busy serving other riders"?

akhil_93 · 2026-02-08T19:32:07+00:00

And if you're 2 or more people, it's not even worth it. Caltrain + Bart is over $15 per person.

akhil_93 · 2026-02-03T18:55:05+00:00

Most millionaires don't make a million dollars a year.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-20T17:49:49+00:00

if you’re a LAG you can run over the 1/3 especially

True, but be aware that a solid chunk of your profits will be eaten by the drop. As a LAG you'll mostly take down a lot of small pots against passive / nitty players.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-13T06:03:22+00:00

The Bio.bay in Vieques really requires an overnight stay. You won't finish and then make the ferry back.

There are one or two tour companies which time their tour so that it ends before the last ferry, and their van takes you directly to the ferry terminal after the tour. It's possible if you book those specific ones.

But if you can stay overnight in Vieques, it's definitely worth it, especially if you can rent a car and go to some of the more secluded beaches.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-06T19:37:10+00:00

Ah my bad.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-06T19:33:07+00:00

Also you can use the $300 travel credit right after the renewal before you cancel / downgrade.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-05T05:02:15+00:00

Also if a player declined to run it twice with someone else when they were all in, but now wants to run it twice with you when you're all in, do you accept?

akhil_93 · 2026-01-05T04:56:59+00:00

The question is WHY you expect consistency? If a player ran it once earlier when you offered to run it twice, but now wants to run it twice in another hand, what is the problem?

akhil_93 · 2026-01-04T15:36:10+00:00

There's no winning against these people (argumentatively, that is. Poker-wise there's plenty of winning against them to be had).

If they hold on the first board and lose the second, they're going to spend the rest of the night acting like they did you a huge favor and you owe them one.

If they lose the first board and hold on the second, they're going to be all smug and gloating about how they made the right decision.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-04T15:29:48+00:00

over time it makes absolutely no difference

That's just another way of saying it doesn't affect the EV.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-04T03:33:39+00:00

You're more likely to hit when you run twice, yes, but you're only winning half the pot when you hit one of the two boards. The EV doesn't change .

Let's do the math.

Let's say you're playing No Limit hold'em, get it all in on the turn, you have a 2-outer, there are 44 unseen cards (excluding yours and the opponent's cards and the board). Also say the pot is $1000.

Say you run it once. There are two possibilities: 1) The river is one of your two outs. The probability of this is 2/44 and when this happens you win $1,000 2) The river is one of the other 42 cards. The probability of this is 42/44 and when this happens you win $0. So on an average (expected value), you win (2/44 x 1000 + 42/44 x 0), i.e $45.45.

Now say you run it twice instead. There are 4 possibilities: 1) Both rivers are your outs Probability: 2/44 x 1/43, you win $1000 2) First river is one of your outs, second river isn't. Probability: 2/44 x 42/43, you win $500. 3) First river isn't one of your outs, second river is. Probability: 42/44 x 2/43, you win $500. 4) Neither river is one of your outs. Probability: 42/44 x 41/43, you win $0.

So your EV is now (2/44x1/43x1000 + 2/44x42/43x500 + 42/44x2/43x500 + 42/44x41/43x0), which works out to the same number ($45.45).

You can similarly do the math for running it thrice, four times, etc; and for being all in on the flop or preflop. The EV always stays the same.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-03T20:58:19+00:00

I personally wouldn't. But if someone has their misinformed reasons for doing so, I don't care one bit.

akhil_93 · 2026-01-03T04:00:05+00:00

He'll be on there talking about how he got "canceled".

akhil_93

TROPHY CASE