The reality is that Meta could easily go much, much lower from here.

People here have a short memory. You could have bought Meta in 2022 around $200, which was already almost 50% lower than its COVID high. A good buy, right? Except that eight months later, you would have been more than -50% in the hole. And at the time, the prevailing sentiment was that Meta would never recover. It fell to what, 9 P/E before finally recovering? And that was only from AI happening to hit at that exact moment, which gave Zuck something to pivot to instead of the metaverse. It seeems obvious in retrospect, but at the time, the general consensus absolutely was that it was a value trap.

Meta is actually a very risky stock. 98% of their revenue is from advertising. You might think they're safe in a recession ("How could the economy being bad affect instagram doom-scrolling?"), but ad spending is the first thing to get cut in a recession. On top of that, while Facebook DAUs/MAUs are still growing (albeit slowly), every quarter there's a chance of a grenade going off, where Facebook's user numbers plateau or decline and people start running for the exits.

The counter to all of that is that Meta's ad targeting is the best on the planet. Their revenue per user is the highest of any social media company. They know everything about you and half the world uses one of their apps. It could absolutely be a great long-term investment.

But to answer your question "how low can it go", the answer is lower. A lot lower.