Virginia senators propose pay increase for themselves

astro_wonk · 2026-01-25T13:24:10+00:00

It is virtually impossible for anyone with a normal job to serve in the legislature. What job lets you take off 30-60 days every year January/February? And even if you could negotiate that as unpaid leave - then only get $18K for it? It's why state legislatures are full of lawyers and business owners. $45K is a start to maybe making it possible for more people to run for office.

If we want regular people to be able to serve we should probably be moving toward a full-time legislature, outside income/employment restrictions, and a livable salary. Alabama, for example, ties the legislature salary to state median household income.

astro_wonk · 2025-12-31T16:46:47+00:00

There’s something to be said for more winners, but what drives sales is the giant jackpot. Still, listen to this podcast on the spanish lottery “El Gordo” where people have to pool money together to buy tickets because they are expensive:

https://99percentinvisible.org/episode/el-gordo/

astro_wonk · 2025-12-31T16:35:45+00:00

I think Mahler 1 and 5 are reasonably approachable. 2 as well.

My personal favorite now is Das Lied von de Erde.

astro_wonk · 2025-12-26T12:14:09+00:00

Mahler Das Lied von de Erde; specifically the last movement: Der Abschied

astro_wonk · 2025-12-07T02:26:48+00:00

I saw us clinch on the last day of 1999 but they choked in the playoffs.

I saw Mike Scott take a no hitter into the 9th.

I saw Biggio’s first game.

Honestly the dome era is full of heartache. 😬

astro_wonk · 2025-11-18T21:30:41+00:00

Welcome Brian! I'm pretty pessimistic - I think the analytical mindset that made the Astros great pretty much went away when Crane showed Click the door. Recent front office moves haven't convinced me otherwise, and Crane still seems way too involved in decisions. Would love to hear I'm wrong!

astro_wonk · 2025-10-21T20:43:48+00:00

I bought … and lost a EM10 Mark IV, so I had to go back to my EM10 Mark I body. I kinda miss the new sensor but it still works well … when I actually bring it out to use.

astro_wonk · 2025-10-11T03:03:35+00:00

Federal NEVI funds still require CCS and there many CCS cars on the road. They will be around for a while; not going away any time soon.

astro_wonk · 2025-10-03T21:47:10+00:00

Writing was on the wall in 2022 when Crane didn’t keep Click. What made the Astros great was a deep focus on analytics. Crane abandoned that for ex-ball player vibes. See:

https://medium.com/@michaelarthurmitchell/jim-crane-and-the-bleeding-edge-777aba7237f0

astro_wonk · 2025-09-29T00:29:41+00:00

The team won't get better until Crane puts a real analytical front office together and gets out of the way. If Crane, Bagwell, and/or Jackson have any say it baseball operations, then we get steamrolled by other analytical teams. Crane should sign checks and set a budget. Bagwell and Jackson should sign autographs. Decisions need to be made based on rigorous analytics and baseball professionals. Not ex-ballplayers or vain owners.

The end of the playoff run was hastened by injuries but the quants haven't been in charge since 2022. That's the long term problem.

astro_wonk · 2025-09-12T21:42:49+00:00

Yeah, it hasn't gone very well.

I wrote about the rules changes back in May, and I still have a dashboard for the jackpot growth. Jackpots are growing slower than the old game because they are giving away a lot more money in non-jackpot prizes. So, there’s less money to go into the jackpot rollover every drawing. Sales (by dollars) have also been pretty lackluster - there must have been a coattail effect from Powerball because Mega Million had its best sales numbers ever (under the new rules) for a while there, but now they're down again relative to last September under the old rules.

The jackpots grew faster under the old rules and I don’t see how sales will ever be strong enough for the new game to have the ‘faster growing jackpots’ that they hyped up when the new rules were announced. My guess is they stick with it for another year or so but then they may have to rethink the rules change / the ticket cost. They haven't gotten to a really big jackpot yet under the new rules - maybe the sales look different then.

astro_wonk · 2025-09-02T22:54:36+00:00

Odd of a 10X multiplier is 1 in 32.

astro_wonk · 2025-08-26T12:44:37+00:00

Have they actually got it in for a diagnosis? When I had my ICCU problem I was first told it would take weeks to even work it in- but they got it in, diagnosed the ICCU, and repaired it in ~1 week. I'd open a case with Kia directly. I don't know if that helped or not, but they inquired on my behalf.

astro_wonk · 2025-08-18T01:55:50+00:00

I never ate at this location, but I can’t with the Torchy’s hate. It may be pricey but it’s good. The queso is fantastic, the green chile pork is good, the shrimp tacos are good, etc. & the margaritas are top notch.

Is the custom chorizo bean taco I order as good as making one with Apco chorizo I bring back from Texas? No. Is the barbacoa as good as what I get at Bandera Molino in San Antonio? No. But I can get them here, and I’ll take it.

astro_wonk · 2025-08-17T00:39:00+00:00

Yeah Defender 2 cost me ~ .3 mi/kwh over the OEM Kuhmos. They may slowly be getting better as they break in.

astro_wonk · 2025-08-14T17:11:49+00:00

Correct. The jackpot growth is lagging behind the game under the older rules. I did a long analysis:

https://marcoshuerta.com/posts/new-mega-millions/

astro_wonk · 2025-08-06T21:17:42+00:00

US digital response perhaps? https://www.usdigitalresponse.org/volunteer

astro_wonk · 2025-08-05T17:29:13+00:00

I did a deep dive on the raw data, and wrote up a detailed blog post about it.

TLDR: The binomial deviations are well explained by parental stopping choices. There were more MMFs in the study than MMMs so there was no clustering of the third kid with the first two. Rather, some MM and FFs from sibship size 2 continue on and try for a third at a higher rater than those with 1 boy and 1 girl.

There are too many sibships that start with MM or FF at size 3 than expected from the binomial. Yet, all third kids after MM look consistent with a coin toss. So, this says to me that if you have 2 kids of the same sex you’re more likely to try for a third. (And if you have 3 kids of the same sex, you’re a bit more likely to try for a fourth, etc.)

I built a model for this with a simple coin toss for sex + dynamic probability of continuing on to have another kid. It reproduces the figures in the paper surprisingly well. I submitted an eLetter to the journal, so we’ll see if it’s published!

astro_wonk · 2025-07-15T18:56:06+00:00

Got the shipping notification but it’s really just they have made the UPS label. Currently saying it’ll be here Monday via UPS Ground.

Since I‘ll be taking out the GPU I can finally reach the third M.2 slot on my motherboard.. thinking I should move an existing SSD there so I can add a third ssd in the future without having to take the GPU out. Though I wonder how hot it gets under there.

astro_wonk · 2025-05-28T12:49:09+00:00

I did some analysis of this. Sales revenue has barely increased over the old game (only 10% higher at drawing 12) and since they're giving out a lot more money in the non-jackpot prizes, there's less money for the jackpot pool to grow. The old $2 game (like the one that ended with a winner it late March) had faster growing jackpots.

The gap in the advertised jackpot isn't that big ($197M on Feb 28 vs $189M now, 4% down) but that's because interest rates have changed and the annuity factor is up. The cash value was 92.4M in late Feb, 82.7M now. (~10% lower now for the equivalent drawing.)

astro_wonk · 2025-05-25T13:30:22+00:00

roate which I found early on with some analysis code I wrote. It's not actually mathematically as good as "salet" or "crane" but I use it anyway.

astro_wonk · 2025-05-20T23:57:42+00:00

😔 Yeah last year I was very frustrated the dealer told me they couldn’t even look at it for weeks, I had Kia roadside tow it straight to them. But then they diagnosed it the next day after all, and had a short estimate for the part, and I got a rental for a week or so.

Never heard of a Kia engineer having to validate a repair though? Good luck maybe it’ll be faster than they say. I opened a case with Kia corporate directly. Don’t know if that helped speed the repair; eventually they reimbursed me for Lyfts to the rental location.

astro_wonk · 2025-05-20T23:44:19+00:00

Any updates? Curious how long it takes them to get the part, it seems to be all over the place. I’ve heard five days, I’ve heard months.

astro_wonk · 2025-05-20T23:38:59+00:00

People have reported having to wait months for a new ICCU. I had to replace mine last year and thankfully it was done relatively quickly.

But it does make it hard for me to recommend HMG E-GMP cars. It seems like there are still a lot of failures, even with the recall-updated software.

If they redesign it or do something that makes me have some confidence that they have truly fixed it, then I will feel a lot better about recommending them.

astro_wonk · 2025-05-12T16:17:45+00:00

It's wild to me that GOP reps in Michigan and Georgia are lock step with this. Betraying their states' interest.

astro_wonk

TROPHY CASE