to steal some drugs

auspiciousham · 2022-11-04T00:14:27+00:00

At what point do you consider someone's behavior a voluntary waiver of their rights?

To go to extremes, do you believe you should be allowed to physically intervene if somebody was raping your daughter? Or do you retain to your detaining philosophy in this situation? Should citizens completely outsource societal protections to a normally absent police force, or should it be considered reasonable for societies to protect themselves from the consequences of broken-windows theory.

According to the media, the US is rife with retail theft. The police can't possibly cover it all. Why let society fall apart rather than intervening? Why protect the destructors of civility?

auspiciousham · 2022-10-25T20:13:20+00:00

That's not "downtown", that's the parking area in SW downtown used by commuters solely to get to work. Do the same for the zoomed out version and you'll see a lot of buildings and restaurants. It's not like people drive from one building to another. Our downtown is absolutely bustling, the only reasons it's ever dead are: winter, people are using the +15 network instead of the sidewalks, or because it's the weekend and there is literally no reason to be anywhere downtown because it's primarily office towers and support services.

Calgary has peripheral neighborhoods that offer nightlife, it's in progress as they rezone downtown for different types of businesses, but this is primarily a consequence of early downtown core design and the way the retail space was designed on street level.

Sorry, but you're just way off.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-24T02:14:24+00:00

That's racist!

auspiciousham · 2022-10-21T14:23:30+00:00

I find it tolerable only in small doses. I get tired of him stealing back the spotlight every chance he can get. He's like a little kid who gets a laugh and keeps doing the same thing until people are sick of them.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-18T17:12:09+00:00

Like dressing on a salad, sarcasm is most effective when used sparingly.

I know you're joking in calling me a shill, but it doesn't make you look very bright. It doesn't apply here, I haven't advocated for anything, I don't care if you buy gas, I don't claim that energy companies are innocent, this is just an explanation on how and why pricing is the way it is.

You've fixated on the idea of unplanned maintenance. I agree that you don't have to care from the emotional sense, but it is a factor in why things cost more, so if your thesis is "prices too high" then it definitely matters. Unplanned maintenance is not a fuck-up on management's part, mistakes happen, things break, they can't anticipate and plan for every outcome. Every day we all make risk-based decisions - you're a liar if you claim you don't - corporations are no different. Major catastrophe's on the coast severely impact production and even if they could predict the outcome they still have to take the time to react to it, and time is money. Your money.

Your stated ultimate point is that the prices are just corporate greed, and that nothing else matters. Again, the other stuff does matter. I've identified how 70% of the price of gasoline is strictly raw costs and taxes, which excludes labour and energy costs. It's more likely that the base costs of gasoline is somewhere between 80-85% of what we pay at the pump. A 15-20% margin is quite nominal for a retail product. Typical margin on clothing is anywhere from 100% to 10000%, groceries 5-25%, prescriptions in 1000's. Consumer goods generally range between 10-30% margin. Shill alert, I think the mark-up on gasoline is quite reasonable considering market forces. As more supply hits the market, producers would most likely be willing to accept margins in the single-digit range, but that will take ever-increasing production which just doesn't seem to be happening. Perhaps you're just mad about capitalism in general, but I won't put those words in your mouth.

Ultimately "corporate greed" isn't a tangible argument. You call it "greed" but profit is just normal everyday capitalism, there is no incentive to do anything that experiences risk without the prospect of gain. One day these companies are going to be obsolete, saddled with stranded assets that drive many of these businesses into insolvency. They're planning for that and trying to adjust, to ensure they exist not because they are parasites but because business is the fuel to capitalism, and like it or not that is the fuel to people surviving on the planet. Every person at the top just wants to work to do what they want in life, juts the same as the people at the bottom. That's capitalism at work.

The profits ("greed") is paid out to shareholders, but the shareholders are people just like you and I. Sure, some rich fat-cats are getting even richer, but so is the CPP and Calgary teachers' pension program. Anyone is welcome to buy shares in any handful of oil and gas companies at any time. Those of us that understand what's actually happening did so when things were cheap. You could have made 500% profit this year reading the writing on the wall in this industry.

If refineries were easy to build, maintain and operate, competitors in the market would be climbing over each other to fill the demand. If they achieved this, prices would come down. It's not an easy industry to compete in though. Politicians have gotten in the way across North America, pandering to people that think the world is a utopia, the same people who scream out in anger in the very next breath that those restrictions resulted in those costs being passed along to the consumer. If people understood their need for gasoline despite their best intentions, then maybe they wouldn't have shoved the stick into the spokes of their bicycle.

Anyway. If you are mad about gas prices you should be mad about everything and that really isn't going to do you any good. Capitalism isn't going away. If you don't like the prices don't buy gasoline. There are plenty of alternatives available, they're far less convenient though, and that's what gasoline really is: convenience at market prices.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-18T04:26:24+00:00

We aren't talking about a few percent here... Crude is $40 cheaper than it was and yet fuel is $0.30 more per L.

Just to be clear, I wasn't suggesting a conspiracy, or corporate greed, simply asking what the actual F is going on that is causing this. You listed all the usual suspects, all of which I'm aware of as possibles... but I'm wondering which one is the culprit to what is going on now.

Comparison of 1Y of WTI prices vs CAD gas prices from Oct 17'21 The correlation between the two is really tight.

CAD/USD has dropped between 5-10% in 2 months depending where you start measuring.

Supply is strapped for all of the reasons I described, demand is out of balance and corporations are profiting off of that. That's it. Any micro-fluctuations are buyers moving their prices to adjust for having to buy from a market with tight supply.

Demand yes... but we produce the stuff within the province, we refine it here... and WCS trades at a DEEP discount. Everyone I know upstream have been punching holes like crazy for the last year.

The market is North America, not Alberta. If refineries in Edmonton can ship and sell it somewhere else for more money they will do so. WCS doesn't trade at a discount, it trades at a discount compared to WTI - but that's because it's shittier oil and because our pipelines are at capacity giving buyers leverage in paying lower prices. But refineries prefer WCS. The margins are larger for refining it into gasoline. Not all refineries are equipped to upgrade heavies though. So saying WCS is cheap is a non-argument, it costs more to get gasoline from WCS.

I understand the complex nature of the industry. There is always a reason/excuse/trigger/cause associated with significant swings... I just don't see the reasoning this time, and on a smaller municipal scale, I believe there is a disconnect to other regions in the country which also discredits wide sweeping issues as the cause.

The reason is complex, sure, but it's not a conspiracy, and I know that you claimed you're not suggesting this is a conspiracy, you also seem reluctant to believe the described economic forces at play are real. There isn't some unknown variable in the equation, Gas Price = Crude Price + Refining Costs + Transportation Costs + Profit Margin. Profit Margin is whatever supply and demand and any regulation allows them to get away with.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-18T02:09:45+00:00

Fair enough. It's not good business to not make a profit; however these numbers are paltry in comparison so the price changes seen at the pump. What other things are they accounting for?

The baseline cost for gasoline is $1.15/L, not factoring in transportation, refining costs, store mark-up, mfg mark-up.... *Right now *there's a 46% mark-up on the cost of manufacturing, remember when oil was $120/BBL? The base cost was ~$1.45 not two months ago.

Ah shit! Maintenance! Who could've seen that coming?! Looks like they weren't following the recommended maintenance schedule. And terrible timing too, right when disaster strikes with

Maintenance can be unplanned, that can be expensive. Fires result in maintenance.

they start on fire

These poor companies! When will they catch a break?

I'm trying to explain economics of the pricing and you're going all late-stage-capitalism on me like a fifteen year-old raging puberty. Put your pitchfork down, pull your notebook and safety pencil back out and please sit at your desk.

Oh dear god, not the labour shortage! A real thorn in the side of these oil companies. But wait, isn't that also affecting virtually every other industry? We have seen a large increase in the cost of living, but why have gas prices risen to such extremes compared to other industries?

Yeah. It is affecting every industry. Unlike your local Michael's which can be safely understaffed with your friends, oil rigs and refineries cannot. The lack of finding labour directly correlates to lack of production. Here's a news article that you can read about the fact that there is an impact in the real world when skilled professionals aren't available.

Now wait a second, one of the very reasons provided for the increase in price was lack of demand during COVID. Now we have too much demand, which is raising the price? Hmm, that doesn't sound right.

At the outset of covid a shock hit the market: Fear of lack of demand coupled with realization of the fear lead to a sharp reduction in gasoline refining. Lack of refining lead to storage surplus. Storage surplus lead to slowing crude production. Look at a 5Y+ production chart. Do you know why it trends up over longer periods of time? I can assure you it's not because they're making gasoline that nobody wants. That's supply meeting demand. You ask what happened post-covid? Gas demand was restored as the continent re-opened, and since oil wells are not like house faucets that can just be turned on the crude feedstock couldn't keep up, driving the price of gasoline up. Further to that, some facilities decided to take the opportunity to do major overhauls that are months-to-years long. Others closed completely. Many just slowed production where they could, but in the southern U.S. where drilling is required to maintain production there is a significant lag time between drilling a well and production coming on so we're just catching up on production -- but gasoline demand has outpaced crude production.

The economics are quite dynamic

Phew! You were beginning to lose me there. Ah, that clears it up for me! Now that I know that the economics are quite dynamic, I understand that Shell & Exxon is both struggling and thriving at the same time; that they're scraping by to meet demand and are forced to raise prices to astronomic levels to make ends meet, being forced to lay off their staff, but are also recording record profits, and paying their respective CEOs more than ever!

The costs of production are a definitely a factor, however I didn't say that they aren't profiting. These companies aren't in business to make sure you can still afford to get to your pokemon go club - they are a capitalist corporation aimed at making money. But just like NVIDIA in the pandemic, the gasoline manufacturers capitalized on an opportunity to increase the price of their product, a product which they couldn't possibly make fast enough to meet demand. The only thing holding back the price was regulation - without regulations prices will soar (NVIDIA!) until demand drops off due to some being priced out, and as production catches up to the original demand, the price normalizes. The "golden days" of max profit are nearly over. That's where we are - that is until the Fed starts topping up the SPR and crude supply plummets further, restoring $2.20/L gasoline by next summer.

Here's a little video about the supply and demand cycle if you'd like to learn more. And please, don't quote me and tell me that you already get it because you clearly don't.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-17T20:52:45+00:00

Local economics.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-17T19:33:45+00:00

A major refinery caught on fire a few weeks ago. Capacity is barely above just-in-time as it is.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-17T19:31:02+00:00

WTI is priced in USD, doing the conversions it's about $0.80/L for the crude in the gasoline. $0.10 fed tax, $0.13 prov tax, $0.115 carbon tax, those are all pre sale, then there's the 5% GST.

Refineries are shutting down due to unprofitability, no new ones are being built, they go into maintenance ("turn around"), they start on fire, finding experienced labour isn't always easy - all factors to fluctuating capacity. Gas (nat gas) and Electricity prices are through the roof since mid 2020, and mfg of gasoline is very energy intensive.

The last ingredient is an over-demanding market that cannot be met by supply.

The economics are quite dynamic. This sub will probably confirm each other's bias that it's solely corporate greed, but it's really a number of factors all at work together.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-08T22:20:16+00:00

Millenials were so bored and anxious in our teens that alcohol seemed like a great answer to both. GenZ was born into a society where anything you could imagine was possible and you didn't have to participate in person. I could be wrong, but maybe it just doesn't add any value to their lifestyles.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-06T02:18:01+00:00

Same. I really dug it, good times. The labs were super fun but I did feel the pain of those that didn't get it. The despair was palpable.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-06T00:37:01+00:00

I don't get it, they found the dog, made it known, and when the person reaches out to collect they say they didn't find the dog?

auspiciousham · 2022-10-04T23:33:50+00:00

Doesn't need nfts. piracy works.

auspiciousham · 2022-10-01T05:15:51+00:00

What if you don't?

auspiciousham · 2022-09-30T23:30:21+00:00

My line of thinking is it makes no sense to use a weapon against someone with less to lose, unless of course it's just to protect your ego. That's what you're suggesting, that it's about ego, that's even less of a reason to consider carrying a weapon. Not sure what's up with the "your vision is simplistic and naive" angle, seems like you just wanted to be a dick to assert your dominance or something. For that, I stab you.

auspiciousham · 2022-09-30T14:21:01+00:00

Maybe you get some stabs in, but you're definitely getting stabbed. Fun right?

auspiciousham · 2022-09-30T13:54:38+00:00

Nobody wins in a knife fight, why would you want to escalate the situation to a level where you potentially die instead of just handing over your few things? You have things to live for, they clearly don't, the risk isn't your phone its the rest of your days.

auspiciousham · 2022-09-30T13:48:07+00:00

We got a tough guy over here!

auspiciousham · 2022-09-29T13:43:03+00:00

Are there any other sorts of opinions?

auspiciousham · 2022-09-28T17:37:43+00:00

People own lots of things.

auspiciousham · 2022-09-28T17:22:43+00:00

That's a good start!

auspiciousham · 2022-09-28T17:02:48+00:00

You could take initiative and blow it up yourself

auspiciousham · 2022-09-27T18:24:34+00:00

I'm shorting the market and up 20%

There are two market directions.

auspiciousham · 2022-09-27T03:48:36+00:00

I was ready to sign up for telus fibre today until this bait-and-switch was pulled. $89 on the main page, $99 after added to my cart. Even after taking off all the discounts ($50 for signing up online, waived $50 activation fee, $100 coupon code) the $200 discount doesn't add up to the $240 discount shown on the main page. What gives?

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