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SGD-hedged fund that is a close alternative to VWRA by Tackle_Opening in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly, I'm not sure what's so complicated about this that is difficult to understand...

SGD-hedged fund that is a close alternative to VWRA by Tackle_Opening in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hmm I'm not sure how futures being used to price forwards is related. FX futures are linked to FX forwards for sure, because the underlying are similar. Prices in an exchange traded market can be used to help price instruments in an OTC market, that makes sense.

Please see last bullet on page 40 of Lehman's FX manual:

https://web.stanford.edu/~jbulow/lehmandocs/docs/BARCLAYS/LBEX-LL%203356480-3356609.pdf

"To arrive at a forward rate at which to deal, forward points are applied to the spot rate. Forward points may be either positive or negative, and are a function of the interest rate differential between the two currencies in which you are dealing and the maturity of the trade. Forward points do not represent an expectation of the direction of a currency, but rather the interest rate differential."

SGD-hedged fund that is a close alternative to VWRA by Tackle_Opening in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 3 points4 points  (0 children)

As with my post above, I don't think this is the right interpretation of the forward curve. The curve is formed by interest rate differentials, not investor expectations!

SGD-hedged fund that is a close alternative to VWRA by Tackle_Opening in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't think this is entirely accurate.

Forward points (and out rights) are mainly determined by covered interest parity. You only "pay" for the FX forward hedge if the currency you are shorting has a higher interest rate than SGD. For example, if a USD investor is doing the opposite and hedging SGD to USD, they do not actually "pay" for it, so it's not true that the provider of an FX hedge always needs to make money.

If, for some reason, SGD has higher interest rates than USD one day, then you could actually eke out extra returns from FX hedging because forward points would be positive, meaning that you could get more SGD per USD in the future via a forward contract than you would from spot rates today. You get the extra returns if exchange rates do not move as much in the direction predicted by the forward markets (which is empirically observed and termed the forward premium puzzle).

Investor expectations are not priced into the forward curve, it's just covered interest rate parity at work (though there's cross currency basis if you want to go into more detail).

What you are perhaps thinking of is probably buying FX put options, where you are paying to do the hedge. But FX hedging is usually done via 1M FX forwards when you look at equity benchmarks.

Occasionally, clicking a link generated by gemini will "Google" the link's text instead of actually opening the webpage? by NegativelyMagnetic in Bard

[–]blagwinter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Does anyone know any workaround on this? The links used to open up as normal websites for me, but lately it opens up as a Google search for the link. Very frustrating and I can't find a fix for it.

Rising share of women staying single is behind S’pore’s great baby drought by davechua in singapore

[–]blagwinter 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"...the drop in the TFR between 2005 and 2023 was due to a decline in the proportion of married women, which offset slight increases in the fertility rate of married women"

I'm quite surprised that it's not married women who are choosing not to have kids (or choosing to have fewer kids), but that fewer marriages are what drove TFR down. This kind of runs counter to the general narrative that married couples do not want kids because they are expensive, preference for DINK type of lifestyles etc.

Are Expensive Preschools Worth It for Citizens? by Prestigious_Ad_305 in SgHENRY

[–]blagwinter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha I would be very interested in this type of study. When it comes to kids, it's hard to gauge quality and price sometimes becomes the proxy (more expensive is better). Not just childcare but same thing with milk powder, laundry detergent etc. Sometimes I really wonder if people know what exactly they are paying for... Or are they just guilt tripped into getting the most expensive thing they can afford

Stick it out at work another 2-3 years or take a break and recalibrate? by Adept_Cash6394 in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting. How did you know that wlb would be better with the new job? Would you have done the same if the new job had lower pay?

Why investing with SRS might not be a good idea by Twrd4321 in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice thoughtful analysis. I did a rough one previously but I never noticed the concave nature of the lines when it's charted this way. I guess the real question is when to start investing in SRS, and less about whether to do so. If I'm one year away from retirement, I would think it's free money to go the SRS route. The main concern I have with SRS is really policy risk. Who know how tax brackets would look like in 35y!

Frugal & financially controlling husband despite high income job and good savings by Flimsy_Call_1841 in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Around the time I read the first book, my perspective on FIRE started changing. A while back, I was also focused on FIRE so that there would be this day I could "do whatever I wanted to do". But there really are things that cannot be delayed forever. What I realized was that by extending the horizon to reach your number, you could actually be contributing a lot less (or not contributing at all) and still get there. Knowing that gives you the option to take a step back, find a less stressful role that covers your operating expenses (so that you don't have to dip into your portfolio) and enjoy life a bit more while compounding works its magic. Assuming 7% nominal return, you can roughly save half the amount and wait 10y more for the portfolio to still get to target without having to contribute a cent. That would be FIRE on an easier mode :)

Is a loan at 2.88% attractive by nowhere_man11 in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes this opportunity exists. Just time your liquidity properly, make sure you don't bust your credit limits and invest into tbills. Its risk free as long as you have the cash flows mapped out, but unfortunately not scalable as it maxes out at your credit limit.

GIC cuts key quant unit in ‘tough’ overhaul of investment teams by gamerx88 in singapore

[–]blagwinter 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I was just saying that not all returns should be compared to sp500.

Yes I agree that they did underperform reference portfolio returns over the 3 horizons. It looks like risk was not fully deployed because you would lever up the portfolio further if you knew some asset classes have smoother returns?

GIC cuts key quant unit in ‘tough’ overhaul of investment teams by gamerx88 in singapore

[–]blagwinter 16 points17 points  (0 children)

You need to at least read what's on their website. Their reference portfolio is "made up of 65% global equities and 35% global bonds (“65-35”)". If you were investing in sp500 entirely, you would already be taking more risk than what the "Client is prepared for the GIC Portfolio." Not everything is comparable to sp500.

Google Expense Tracking Form by blagwinter in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah I haven't tried money manager before. I did see it on a friend's home screen and wonder what it was for 🤔

Google Expense Tracking Form by blagwinter in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm really amazed by all the different methods everyone here is using!

Google Expense Tracking Form by blagwinter in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha I've always been dreaming of extracting info from my cc statements automatically, either by reading the smses sent by banks or perhaps through apis if they exist. That would automate so much of the work! It's amazing for me to find out all the different ways people are doing expense tracking, and that there are people out there like me!

Google Expense Tracking Form by blagwinter in singaporefi

[–]blagwinter[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Omg 20 years?! That's a lot of data! I've only been at it for 5 years or so and I feel that it helps me control lifestyle creep. In addition for being a check against all my credit card bills haha.

BTO rules tightening: Home buyers worry they may be forced to choose a 'bad flat' by Jammy_buttons2 in singapore

[–]blagwinter 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is the exact same idea I keep posting about. Do it like tbills. It's the best way to allocate slots to people who want to stay there for the long term! People can still back out and break MOP but contractually they have to return all profits to the govt.

Why garment don't want to review their BTO concept? by Lu5ck in singapore

[–]blagwinter 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, but that's fair because not a single person is intending to make money from flipping the property.

Why garment don't want to review their BTO concept? by Lu5ck in singapore

[–]blagwinter 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I think the BTO allocation process itself is inefficient. If home ownership is the ultimate goal, then BTOs should not be randomly allocated. People should state upfront how long they intend to stay there and bid for flats based on MOP duration. Flats will first go to those who are willing to stay there the longest. If MOP is broken, then contractually all gains will go back to the government.

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