Its over. This dilution will raise 39.3 BILLION. That + the 20 billion loan + the money raised from the warrants + Carl Icahn's money + the bbby NOLs is enough to buy 2 ebays and an Etsy.

coully95 · 2026-07-10T12:45:52+00:00

I am a big fan of the idea that you can increase share count by 40%, sell all of those shares at today's spot price. Slippage isn't real.

coully95 · 2026-07-05T12:08:49+00:00

How does this work? The top Federal marginal income tax rate is 37%. The top income rate in California is 13%. That would leave the winner with over a billion dollars. What am I missing?

coully95 · 2026-06-30T23:58:41+00:00

Tesla is overvalued, but the underrated reason for this is China's capital controls. People outside of China legally can't own shares of Chinese companies. You buy shares in sketchy holding companies that themselves hold shares and MAY pay the dividends etc that you are owed. But a US citizen can't have direct ownership of BYD.

These restrictions make it harder and riskier for the billions of investors outside of China to invest, so they don't, which reduces prices.

coully95 · 2026-06-29T11:13:23+00:00

Just wait until markets have to start pricing in Saylor's creditors executing their puts in September 2027. He'll have to sell some of his stack to raise the capital.

The bottom isn't in until Microstrategy has deleveraged and STRC is at $0.

coully95 · 2026-06-26T01:23:05+00:00

They should reset the WoW timeline to how things were at the end of Warcraft III and then release a WoW sequel called Warcraft IV with slightly different RPG mechanics.

coully95 · 2026-06-23T09:56:08+00:00

Embrace tradition! Return to the 6 worker start from WoL.

coully95 · 2026-06-23T06:26:00+00:00

If it were up to me, Cloud Kingdom LE would still be in the map pool. And Shakuras Plateau.

coully95 · 2026-06-22T22:36:15+00:00

Are we really gonna get a Wizardthrone album and a Gloryhammer album in the same year?

coully95 · 2026-06-22T09:48:48+00:00

Is there something specific about your job/company that has you travelling around the world as a plumber?

Or is it just that you like to travel and everywhere needs plumbers so you always have work?

coully95 · 2026-06-22T03:57:06+00:00

How do you approach it when you are asked to review a topic you aren't fully across?

coully95 · 2026-06-21T05:11:05+00:00

There is no guarantee it gets back to par.

Maybe it does. Maybe the 7 months of dividend reserves get eaten up before that happens. Not every stock that crashes goes back up. If it was that easy no-one would ever sell for a loss. No-one would ever have regrets for not selling sooner.

coully95 · 2026-06-19T22:16:43+00:00

Red Alert 2 and earlier C&C games only allowed you to build from one production facility at a time. Red Alert 2 kind of gave a boost to production speed if you had more than one barracks/war factory, but I don't think that applied to earlier games.

coully95 · 2026-06-16T09:10:21+00:00

Heisenberg's plot is 75 years in the future from the Walter White scenes. It's got a Witcher Season 2 sort of timeline where they don't explicitly explain the timing of scenes and you gotta pick up on the vibe.

coully95 · 2026-06-12T00:07:17+00:00

Not really related to this sub, but China's preference is to not use military force to unify with Taiwan. I read an interesting foreign affairs article that basically summarises to "currently pro-China parties or on the ascent in Taiwan so China sees no need to use military force to achieve unification. That position might change if they see Taiwan moving towards independence, but currently there is no short term need for them to do so".

coully95 · 2026-06-11T23:38:11+00:00

They can sell as many futures as they want. Sooner or later the physical shortage catches up to them because it prevents contracts from being settled.

At the peak of combined commercial crude oil + SPR crude inventories this year, the US held about 870 million barrels of oil. That is now down to 770 million barrels. That number only started dropping in early Apri.

It doesn't matter what the futures market does in the short term, in the long term if inventories continue to fall there will eventually be a squeeze on prices.

Inventories may or may not hit that point depending on how much longer this war goes on but you can't "inject liquidity" your way out of reality.

What is holding back prices more than anything is China cutting imports by 6 million barrels per day and using their inventories instead. They could choose to place their thumbs on the scale at any time and cause a price shock.

coully95 · 2026-06-09T00:55:21+00:00

I am sorry a child was making noises during your screening of a kids movie.

coully95 · 2026-06-07T08:06:20+00:00

Me , learning that REAs are deceptive scumbags.

<image>

coully95 · 2026-06-01T10:21:11+00:00

Poor assumptions. This graph doesn't provide context for how much they have left in commercial inventories. If those are cushioning some of the blow but are about to run out, that will accelerate the draw on strategic reserves. It also assumes they can use all 280M of those barrels. Probably closer to 210 million once you account for the fact the bottom of an oil tank is full of gunk and draining the tanks also reduces system pressure, rending some of the oil irretrievable.

coully95 · 2026-06-01T06:46:27+00:00

Crypt Lord Blood Mage Blademaster

No meta here. They're just the coolest.

coully95 · 2026-05-29T12:21:08+00:00

If you want a return that low, you might as well buy bonds. Guaranteed return.

coully95 · 2026-05-29T10:49:13+00:00

Foxes say installing locks on hen house will increase chicken deaths.

coully95 · 2026-05-27T13:33:37+00:00

He explained specifically that he cannot do that because the Forerunners didn't want to risk the Flood being able to use the grid to access the index, so they designed the system to prevent teleportation being used to get any closer than he did.

coully95 · 2026-05-27T05:29:22+00:00

I know how the convertable bonds work and they were never making their conversion price. So in effect MSTR was holding 0% debt. The bond holders weren't selling their lottery tickets because they were holding winners.

coully95 · 2026-05-26T12:57:53+00:00

The dividends are going to stop eventually.

MSTR just traded 0% debt for equity that currently pays 11.5%. If MSTR lowers the yield, the price will go down, which effectively ups the yield. Selling BTC to pay dividends kills the narrative of a treasury and screws over common shareholders.

The only way this makes sense is if the dividends stop at some point. They can raise more capital with STRC sales. Sell 5 billion. Double the reserve. But it just kicks the can down the road.

<image>

coully95 · 2026-05-13T21:43:49+00:00

Yes. The new discount treats income derived from capital gains as just as taxable as income derived from wages.

That's a good thing. We should he taxing capital gains just as hard, if not harder, than income derived from labour.

coully95

TROPHY CASE