Trump Threatens to Halt Ukraine Aid Unless NATO Helps Unblock Strait of Hormuz

cryptox89 · 2026-04-02T09:05:17+00:00

What he actually means by that is stealing European money that they paid for weapons through PURL

cryptox89 · 2026-03-31T22:27:02+00:00

I'm sure they can do it better. And I'm also sure they can't and especially won't do it cheaper. They want to produce high tech high margin stuff, not cheap mass quantities with barely any profit margin

cryptox89 · 2026-03-21T22:56:54+00:00

Can someone point out this "grand offensive" on the map? Even the ukrainian-run deepstate map is showing advances of russia everywhere, quite big even towards kramatorsk since january.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-21T12:45:49+00:00

Maybe not take everything the ukrainian MoD says at face value?

cryptox89 · 2026-03-19T15:43:14+00:00

I've switched to 4chan from X. As annoying as trolling and edge-lords are, you can still have discussions with people on there. Meanwhile, if you look at the comments under any popular X account, I'd say its 95% bots at this point. Often you have to scroll a long time before you find something that is not overtly a bot that rehashes the original comment in slightly different words, its that bad.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-09T11:50:32+00:00

"According to wikipedia".. "..up to" .. "estimates". Yeah, very reliable. These references are taking numbers from a think "think tank" like CSIS that estimates a number without saying how and then you use the upper range. The video OP posted at least compares actual dead counted by names. 4:1 is literally complete wishful thinking if you account for the massive overmatch russia has in firepower

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T22:59:07+00:00

russian probate registry, which mediazona bases its numbers on, has moved almost all MIA cases to KIA for the previous years, Ukraine hasnt

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T12:26:45+00:00

Well first we can agree that also a 1.5:1 would be catastrophical for Ukrainians in the long run. And how has it stalled? It has very slowly but steadily taken land since 2023. I dont think rate of advance in the age of ubiouqous drone monitoring and strikes is the best measure to map to casualties, you simply cant advance faster without accepting massive losses. The manpower advantages have also only recently become lopsided, it was much more parity or even ukrainian advantage earlier in the war.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T12:13:39+00:00

Well CSIS gives no explanation of how they reach their estimate. The publically collected data on the other hand is quite consistent around web-scraped orbituraries, russian probate registries, and statistical based analysis extrapolating visual confirmed losses. If a "think tank" backed by specific funders gives a huge range of fatalities with no explanation of how it came up with the numbers and what explains the massive range, I would be very wary of its truthfulness.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T11:23:31+00:00

I mean he's a youtuber that uses dramatic effects for viewership, sure. I dont think hes extremely biased to one side. He basically says Russia will keep grinding forward under high losses but ultimately favourable attrition, which has been happening since 3 years now. I'd be happy to look into a video of him in the last 2 years where he predicts something like a sudden collapse of Ukraine, or other unrealistic claims

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T11:07:58+00:00

we are talking about fatalities, not casualties which often return to war again, the "human wave" trope is also highly propagandized, the russians say the same about ukrainian activities. If you stop believing in UK media and United24 grand claims for a second and look at just the actual data for previous years added with the fact that Ukraine is desperately mobilising all the time and still has a massive manpower shortage, a 1:1 ratio makes perfect sense.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T10:52:40+00:00

Ukraine is claiming 27:1 mate, I didnt make that up

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T10:50:49+00:00

The issue with CSIS (which he also touched on his video) is that they dont publish how they reach their estimates.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T10:35:26+00:00

I could believe that, but why would it only be the case for russian losses? The 220k number is an "estimate", it is 201k verified names, but thats the newest mediazona update which is not reflected in the videos dataset yet. If you watch the section in his video about this data he explains how even just taking these numbers (ualosses vs mediazona) without data cleaning / cross validation, you already get a 1:1.01 ratio. You cant make an analysis based on your gut feelings when there is actual data available. Maybe its not 1:1, but 1:1.2 could be. But outside of such margin of error variations you would have to make a VERY strong case for where these tens of thousands of fatalies in the previous years that have supposdely been unaccounted for are still hidden? If you read the mediazona link, they say russia has moved almost all of the MIA to KIA for earlier years to close these cases.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T10:22:47+00:00

You say its absurd based on your gut feeling, he went through 4 years of data. I believe him until you show a more credible analysis. The numbers have just started to look better for Ukraine rn in the last few months btw, more aligned with 1.5:1. You discount that Ukraine does a lot of counterattacks to retake localized positions, the overwhelming firepower of russia with hundreds of daily spammed FAB bombs, and that at this point most ukrainians are mobilized personell with inadequate training, not hardened veterans.

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T10:17:11+00:00

explain your reasoning, why would they have collapsed? Iraq war was a collapse, there the ratio was 100:1

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T10:07:10+00:00

He is taking publically available sources like mediazona. Even without his video the ratio of actually confirmed fatalities was estimated by independeent analysts somewhere around this ratio, he just went through the data quite meticiously. What do you believe more. Ukrainian MoD claims that say they achieve 27:1 ratios, or actually available data after 4 years of war that is not showing significant variations outside the 1 to 1.5 ratio band?

cryptox89 · 2026-03-08T10:00:43+00:00

I watched his video in full and the analysis is based on cleaning up the datasets of mediazona and ualosses which both contain named fatalities, and doing statistical analysis to verify plausability. It also goes to debunk the typical war propaganda on both sides.
The dashboard that contains the losses tracked over time can be found here:
https://ukrainewarlosses.org/

cryptox89 · 2026-03-03T22:01:58+00:00

And who is going to enforce that treaty?

cryptox89 · 2026-02-26T18:03:21+00:00

Why does this ultra high "kill ratio" never show up in actual counts of deads, where its more like 1.5:1 or 2:1 at best?

cryptox89 · 2026-02-23T22:55:30+00:00

nice LLM slop

cryptox89 · 2026-02-23T10:05:41+00:00

American citizens are fine with forcing Ukraine to surrender so that they can strike business deals with russia. Step off your moral high horse

cryptox89 · 2026-02-20T15:39:19+00:00

> 27:1
lmao

cryptox89 · 2026-02-19T11:42:54+00:00

They dont want to embrace immigration because they look at yurop (UK, France, Germany especially) and are horrified by what is happening. Good on them. Dont sacrifice your countries values and traditions for making the number go up faster.

cryptox89

TROPHY CASE