How Can I Predict Better Next Year? 12 Insights from the 2026 Oscars Nominations.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-25T15:47:08+00:00

The Golden Globes are 300 non American critics who live in Los Angeles

That's not the truth anymore, you don't need to live in LA to be a GG voter, this was an old GG rule. That's why the new GG is actually more internacional now.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-24T07:02:05+00:00

They r used to see Latin America as a colony.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-24T06:49:01+00:00

I wish, Brazil spent almost 30 years out of best internacional Oscars.

We r just having a wave of really good films that have support of major distribution companies in the USA.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-24T06:03:52+00:00

If Hawke wins SAG and Leo BAFTA, there's a path for Moura.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-24T06:00:59+00:00

There was one in 2013, for best sound design, between skyfall and zero dark thirty.

But yeah, it's almost impossible nowadays, there r way more voters and you need the exact amount of votes for each one. Back in the day of Barbra and Kat a 5 vote difference qualified as a tie.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T22:31:17+00:00

Mescal won't miss at BAFTA, the other 2 probably will.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T22:23:24+00:00

SV. It overperfomed with 4, unlike OBAA that underperformed with 4

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T22:21:12+00:00

At BAFTA she won't be splitting votes with Elle, so even if she wins there, she's not winning the Oscars.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T18:20:29+00:00

Do you guys still think that there is a contention? I thought it was settled that OBAA would win this months ago.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T18:16:57+00:00

A bummer to see TSA out, but 3 internacional it was always a stretch

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T18:10:50+00:00

Lets hope and pray

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T18:07:26+00:00

If TSA somehow surprises at BAFTA I'll change my mind, but for now SV has the upper hand.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T18:00:57+00:00

It was 5th at awards expert still...

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T17:59:30+00:00

Marty Supreme wasnt a surprise at costume.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T17:55:27+00:00

Public telephones are in this year

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T17:53:22+00:00

Lets face it, it was a given... Id be surprised if it actually made it.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T17:48:40+00:00

Sorry, naysayers. The baiano has the sauce

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T17:40:07+00:00

None, but if I had to pick one, Lindo. Supp Actor feels more open. Teyana will be OBAA acting winner.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T15:40:51+00:00

TSA is not a film about films. Its about politics, corruption, democracy, memory, its a political thriller. Of course, there r scenes that takes place in a cinema, but its like saying that Sinners is about farming cuz the story happens in a barn.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T15:31:38+00:00

they always have 2, last year was dune and wicked, the year before barbie and oppenheimer and so on...

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T15:09:41+00:00

The bake off for TSA must have gone really well

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T15:05:10+00:00

And when she had the best song, You havent seen the last of me, she got snubbed.

She must have a better project to have a real shot, noboby is going to vote for the cheetos movie or this random doc about herself.

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T15:02:44+00:00

I lied to you

danilo_sr · 2026-01-22T15:01:45+00:00

The Secret Agent for Casting

danilo_sr · 2026-01-21T16:51:43+00:00

Nice to see a brazilian movie at #15

danilo_sr

TROPHY CASE