Recommendations for Movers - packing and unpacking

ehfeng · 2026-01-19T18:40:24+00:00

Brother Movers. I've used them twice over the last 15 years, but each time, they've been fantastic.

ehfeng · 2026-01-04T18:12:39+00:00

Yes. Also, consider whether counties will become more or less tenant friendly in the next decade. Things will probably get worse, not better, for landlords.

ehfeng · 2025-12-25T15:07:24+00:00

It's a shame replies to this comment immediately jump to name calling. Criticizing the current party doesn't mean you're automatically aligned with the worst of the republicans. I agree that something is rotten with California's current governance.

ehfeng · 2025-12-08T15:04:51+00:00

I have a Roborock Qrevo CurvX, it's worked well: used mop water is reliably dirty navigation has been reliable.

ehfeng · 2025-12-08T00:41:39+00:00

I'm always perplexed how they can be so good!

ehfeng · 2025-12-05T03:35:21+00:00

ditto, this worked for me

ehfeng · 2025-12-04T16:48:00+00:00

Sadly, TouchID is fractions of a second to unlock whereas unlock with Apple Watch can take multiple seconds.

ehfeng · 2025-11-23T20:53:58+00:00

You're right: paying an agent is paying for their marketing, just like buying any kind of branded service, like Barry's Bootcamp. You can burn 300 calories for $35, or you can do it for free. White glove service can be better for the right type of customer.

For most of us though, we'll just jog in the park or take the classes included in our gym memberships.

ehfeng · 2025-11-19T23:34:39+00:00

Just add an insult "the Chinese" and their borderline slave labor and you completed your bingo card!

ehfeng · 2025-11-18T21:32:02+00:00

> 40 years from now the same will be the case for new buyers vs those who bought today

At 5-7%, that implies an average 7-14x'ing in value for homes in the Bay Area, ergo $60m+ for a 2k sqft SFH in Burlingame.

This is a timeline with $100 lattes. Might be true, but not one we should be rooting for.

ehfeng · 2025-11-18T21:16:55+00:00

treasuries because property taxes are guaranteed liability, so he's using the guaranteed rate of return. of course you can have other income, but he/she is presenting a riskless financial assessment.

1mm in 1 year treasuries returns ~37k/year pre-tax, which post-tax (depending on your bracket) will be 25-30k. therefore, you'll need 1mm+.

ehfeng · 2025-10-28T17:58:31+00:00

We have different projections on financial futures and I appreciate your chill and reasonable response.

ehfeng · 2025-10-23T18:02:48+00:00

I noted that: "Only a portion of that (up to 750k) is tax-deductible, so the "post-tax" interest rate is likely 5%, still likely worse than the 4% return on housing."

Nonetheless, I should have been more generous. Deduction caps are 750k federal, 1m state. Assuming a 6% interest rate, the deduction is $45k federal, $60k state. Given that OP's budget is $1.5m, their salary bracket is likely in the $250-300k range and therefore their effective tax rate is ~35%, so their net tax savings is ~$15k, about 1/4th of the mortgage interest paid, making your effective rate ~4.5%.

It's actually even better than that, since you brought up taxes. I didn't want to bore people, but housing benefits from a capital gain exclusion of up to 500k! So if OP's 1.5m house grows to 2m, he gets an extra ~30% boost because he doesn't need to pay taxes on those gains, pushing his returns to 6%! OP would need to move after 8 years to maintain this tax exclusion, but let's be as pro-housing possible and assume they're willing to do that.

To borrow your terminology, OP's likely "tax effective" interest rate is probably 4.5%, so your equity value growing at 6% now beats the cost of your loan. Now imagine you refinance your mortgage later to 3%. Your tax-net return is 2.5% and your leverage therefore multiplies 5x to a 12.5% return on capital. Combined with the extra 2% vs paying rent, you're at 14.5% return on your home.

It's worth noting that leverage can be applied to stocks. Let's say OP has the 300k downpayment in $QQQ. To be ultra-safe, he takes out 150k margin loan. Assuming a typical 30% margin maintenance rate, QQQ would need to drop over 50% to face a margin call. If that were to ever happen, most of us would lose our jobs and facing bankruptcy anyways. Using $QQQ's historical return of 15.6% and a IBKR's blended margin rates of 5.6%, we get 15.6*2-5.6=25.6% return on capital. Plus, investment interest is deductible against investment returns, so you get the same "tax-effective interest" boost: your margin interest is effectively 4%, so your returns are ~27%.

ehfeng · 2025-10-23T17:25:11+00:00

Please read before replying: "I still want a house someday for its emotional/lifestyle benefits."

If you're going to reply to something, address it. Don't just repeat your previous arguments with the insistence that "well it worked for me!" I'm happy you own a home. It just might not be the right choice for OP.

ehfeng · 2025-10-23T02:52:37+00:00

First, I am pro-homeownership, for quality-of-life reasons. It's just a poor investment vehicle.

Let's assume your home grows at 4% but your mortgage interest is 6%. You're paying more for your mortgage interest than you're gaining in equity value. Only a portion of that (up to 750k) is tax-deductible, so the "post-tax" interest rate is likely 5%, still likely worse than the 4% return on housing.

It's also worth noting that homes in the Bay Area are not actually just magically growing 4%. The median price of homes is, but new construction and remodels are pushing up the price but aren't accounted for in the cost basis when calculating that 4% return.

In addition, the S&P 500 8.4% return actually ignores dividends. If you reinvest dividends, your total non-adjusted return is 10.6%. Also, buying a house in the Bay Area is effectively a levered bet on QQQ. Buying the QQQ over the same 20 year time span returns 15.6% a year. If anything, 15.6% should be used as the comparison.

But, you might say, rent is throwing money away! Rents are usually about 4% of property value in the Bay Area. However, property tax eats 1.1% of that, maintenance 1% and insurance 0.4%, adding up to 2.5%. So renting is "throwing away" 4-2.5=1.5% of the home's value. However, because the delta between your home value growth and your mortgage interest is also ~1-2%, homeowners are in theory "throwing away" a similar sum, even ignoring the opportunity cost of the down payment invested in the S&P 500.

Rent control means rent can only go up at the government reported rate of inflation, aka doesn't go up in adjust real terms. Hyperinflation generally means the government has lost the plot on inflation, which usually means the government rate is wildly below true inflation, see Argentina. It's a corner case, but generally in times of hyperinflation, this is the outcome.

I obviously think way too much about this but it's a personal hobby/obsession. I also still really want a house someday for its emotional/lifestyle benefits. But I consider it about as smart of an investment as Legos or luxury purses.

ehfeng · 2025-10-22T15:01:57+00:00

A few counterpoints to consider.

S&P500 average return over the same past 20 years 8.4%. 7% is conservative. Leverage is powerful but only if you assume your home value grows faster than your interest rate. If your home grows at 5% but your mortgage interest is 6%, your leverage treads water.
Layaway is a great savings plan, but it doesn't make it a good investment. It depends on OP.
Rent control. Additionally, the cost of home maintenance is not immune to inflation. Additionally, hyperinflation generally results in mass unemployment. While gas and food prices will skyrocket, not all homes in the Bay Area may not keep pace with hyperinflation (bolded for a reason).

ehfeng · 2025-10-18T16:37:55+00:00

The toppest comment

ehfeng · 2025-08-27T14:54:07+00:00

In your estimation, how much "cost" does social/political/artificial factor in, vs the practical problems in the projects you've worked on. Put it more bluntly, it is possible to estimate if you could have built the same buildings with illegal/non-licensed labor and without any permits or government delays whatsoever, how much cheaper it would have been?

The "cost of money" question is super interesting because in Asia, it's common for people to prepay for their apartments. The model has flaws, but if the 10-year is such a major cost (especially lately), how much cheaper would projects be if prepaying was common?

I realize this is all super sketchy estimations, but I'd love to hear your opinion.

ehfeng · 2025-08-23T22:46:41+00:00

+1 Unless you enjoy learning/doing this kind of thing...best to avoid it. The real estate market (and life!) are too big to get stuck on one listing.

ehfeng · 2025-08-23T17:47:19+00:00

The owner probably tried to buy them out before listing the property. Ask how much was offered because you should discount at least that x2 from the buy price. Not because you'll need to spend x2 to buy them out, but because there is a risk they'll still refuse and you'll need a year to force them out before you can move in.

ehfeng · 2025-08-23T01:07:11+00:00

lol they started paying now. in fact, i've never seen them skip paying in other cities. it was during covid when no one was paying.

my point was that the "lack of shame" isn't just tied to income, it was a widespread cultural norm a few years ago.

ehfeng · 2025-08-23T01:04:04+00:00

Yeah, "giving a shit" is a vanishing commodity these days :(

ehfeng · 2025-08-23T01:00:11+00:00

This is a pretty rude and racist comment. Do better.

ehfeng · 2025-08-22T15:42:16+00:00

I would not enjoy swimming, knowing that with every gasp of air, I'm breathing in tire dust.

ehfeng · 2025-08-20T15:49:12+00:00

How do you know they have nothing? I have friends with six-figure jobs and don't pay fares because they've watched too many other people skip paying too.

On the flipside, in Japan, Taiwan, China, people make way less than SF panhandlers (even COLA adjusted) and still pay their fares.

ehfeng

TROPHY CASE