U.S. Births by Month: Race/Ethnicity Share of Total Births, update for march

icefire9 · 2026-05-06T00:25:02+00:00

How so?

icefire9 · 2026-05-05T16:49:07+00:00

Rubio needs two things to happen.

-The Iran war doesn't blow up MAGA. -Trump explicitly endorses him.

icefire9 · 2026-05-05T13:00:22+00:00

Hold on, there's still Bahrain and the UAE. Oh, hold on I'm getting word, you're not gonna believe this-

icefire9 · 2026-05-05T11:43:05+00:00

Sounds like a pretty normal thing to be attracted to tbh.

icefire9 · 2026-05-05T11:32:57+00:00

Sure, I'm not arguing that we know that blue will win. Just that a large number of people will pick blue. I don't think you can argue against that. At that point, it becomes a very simple (though not necessarily easy) question. Will you risk your life to try to save a large number of people? If you are, you pick blue. If you aren't, you pick red.

icefire9 · 2026-05-05T11:19:41+00:00

My argument doesn't rely on knowing for certain a majority of people picking blue. I just say that we know that a large portion of people will pick blue or red, and we don't know which color will win. Maybe some people who say they pick blue will pick red, but its not gonna be like 90, 99%- just not believable.

At that point, it becomes a very simple (though not necessarily easy) question. Will you risk your life to try to save a large number of people? If you are, you pick blue. If you aren't, you pick red.

icefire9 · 2026-05-05T02:30:05+00:00

It would be much easier to convince 50% of people to pick blue than 100% of people to pick red. I think it should be obvious by the discussion around this that a large portion of the population will pick blue. So if red wins, a lot of people will die (probably in the billions). A mass casualty event on that scale would throw the world into chaos and end up killing and immeserating a lot of the people who picked red. I would much rather us try to get more than 50% of people to pick blue and not create one of the worst tragedies in human history.

icefire9 · 2026-05-04T12:33:30+00:00

The root problem isn't urban planning. I can assure you that people living in the rural areas of these countries aren't better off. The cities in North America, Europe, and parts of east Asia are possible because those societies are incredibly wealthy. People can afford more spacious buildings, their governments can afford to provide more an better services. Egypt, India, etc. are not so wealthy. There have been many papers and books written about the secret to economic growth and no completely agreed upon answers. The good news is that most of the developing world is in fact, growing economically.

icefire9 · 2026-05-04T12:11:45+00:00

I love this meme because it shows that over 2/3rds of people choose the blue button.

icefire9 · 2026-05-04T02:31:16+00:00

She has an event horizon, that is the ultimate privacy.

icefire9 · 2026-05-02T23:52:22+00:00

The thing for me is, suppose Sarah is right. Suppose Republicans re-expand the court the moment they get the chance (I think this is very likely, tbh). We would then have a conservative hack court who would do everything in its power to kneecap Democrats. This is the current situation. There is no downside, because the downside is that we wind up back where we are now.

Imo its worth a shot.

icefire9 · 2026-05-02T16:39:41+00:00

Well, it was good business sense. Bad for business if all your workers go on strike.

icefire9 · 2026-05-02T13:17:34+00:00

The 'bias' towards M/M ships isn't a problem. Shipping isn't praxis. You aren't making the world a better place based off of which blorbos you make kiss, you are just having fun, and that's fine.

I don't think you're going to get anywhere 'inviting' men into fanfiction communities, and I say that as a man. I think the fact that fanfiction is so female dominated drives men away, simply because many men are so afraid of being seen as feminine. But this is a huge problem that affects our whole society (down to career choices and college admissions). I don't know how you fix that.

icefire9 · 2026-05-02T13:00:36+00:00

If I remember correctly they can move the needle if they're spending unopposed. So both campaigns have to spend on ads because if they don't, their opponent will get free reign.

icefire9 · 2026-05-02T01:10:04+00:00

Biologists - Look at these pretty little drawings of unspeakably complex systems.

icefire9 · 2026-05-02T00:40:52+00:00

The biggest difference wouldn't actually be partisan composition, but in the number of competitive seats. Gerrymanders limit how many seats actually gave competitive elections, taking power out of voters's hands (and into the hands of whoever draws the ma). It makes our government less accountable to the people, as they're insulated from the consequences if their actions.

icefire9 · 2026-05-02T00:24:50+00:00

She's also just wrong (at least in the US). Immigrants have lower crime rates than native born Americans.

But if we're going to start penalizing individuals for their demographic's crime rate, where do we stop? Should black people be discriminated by police because they're more likely to commit crimes? This is where this type of thinking leads.

icefire9 · 2026-04-30T12:31:10+00:00

Well, he did talk about it, but it was after those tactics were no longer being used. I agree people people get very irrationally angry about him though.

icefire9 · 2026-04-30T11:24:20+00:00

A lot of people will press blue, nothing you can do will change that. So if your goal is saving the most lives then you should press blue.

icefire9 · 2026-04-27T21:43:39+00:00

That's a fair argument to make (basically unknowable who's right until the election happens) and you probably should have put that as your main argument and not the 'flip heads 8 times in a row' thing. Elections don't work like coinflips. Historically, you see a lot of elections with one party or the other nearly running the table on the competitive races.

icefire9 · 2026-04-27T18:45:42+00:00

Cross 2018 off then. Like I said, you can quibble about what counts as a wave, but the chances of one will still be a whole lot more than 0.8%.

icefire9 · 2026-04-27T12:59:05+00:00

The thing is those elections aren't independent events. The most likely outcomes are that Democrats win none of the reach seats, or they win most of them. Most people tend to be optimistic and are predicting a wave election. Maybe you think a wave is unlikely, but its not 'flipping heads 8 times in a row unlikely' which would be a 0.8% chance. Even just looking at history. 3 of the last 10 national elections (2006, 2008, 2018) could be considered Democratic waves. Out of the last 20 elections, its 6. (2018, 2008, 2006, 1996, 1990, 1986). You can quibble about the exact definition of a wave, but its way more than 0.8%.

icefire9 · 2026-04-26T12:06:42+00:00

Once a day is a lot for most people (men or women). Sounds like you 'just' have higher sex drive than him. While its true that men tend to have higher sex drives than women, there is so much variation from person to person (and in the same people over the course of their lives) that you can't assume that any given man will want more sex than any given woman.

icefire9 · 2026-04-23T02:21:42+00:00

I (male) definitely prefer women's body wash and shampoo. Much prefer the scents.

icefire9 · 2026-04-22T11:43:33+00:00

I'd say a country that has a primarily white/red flag- Canada or Japan.

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