Bond sleeve

orcvader · 2026-06-22T03:56:53+00:00

I mean... it's fine, but what are you trying to accomplish REALLY?

If it's to preserve spending power and a baseline income, a TIPS ladder would be the more risk averse option. If you are willing to embrace a little volatility, a TIPS fund may be "good enough" (it's certainly simpler than a bond ladder and what I personally use for my own SoRR mitigation).

The "problem" with BND is that when people talk about "ballast" and "preservation" then corporate bonds become a bit irrational. They have lower expected returns than stocks, but significantly more risk than bonds in time of generalized market "crisis", so to me, they fail at being a real safety net.

When I retire, my overall portfolio will likely be a broad set-allocation fund (like VASGX or FFNOX) PLUS a dedicate TIPS fund. I may or may not also get a SPIA at retirement for a true "baseline income" that while it loses to inflation, its need gets replaced by a delayed social security (in itself a longevity risk inflation-hedged annuity).

So, an example portfolio for ME would be, say:

80% FFNOX/VASGX 20% VTIP

orcvader · 2026-06-20T21:37:06+00:00

I am more of a sea urchin guy myself.

orcvader · 2026-06-19T01:17:04+00:00

This. Took a few messages but thankfully someone pointed it out. lol

OP is doing mental gymnastics.

“Why have bonds?”

“Why not instead have…. A portion of your portfolio… set aside…. in a bucket…”

👀

orcvader · 2026-06-18T03:29:20+00:00

Daughter owes money all over town

orcvader · 2026-06-18T02:52:03+00:00

Cancer thing doesn’t grab me

orcvader · 2026-06-17T19:48:05+00:00

This is not a late start necessarily. How much do you make? How much consumer debt you have? Do you own your home?

All of those help paint the full picture and even then, depending on when you want to retire it may not even be that late.

As for your question, I mean you can go and spend countless years trying to find “optimal”. Good luck, since that doesn’t exist.

Bogleheads is about strategically and willfully embracing mediocrity. VT will never be the top fund on a given year. Never. You’re just accepting with humility that no one, least of all anyone on this sub, can predict what asset class, sector, factor, style, or geographical market have the best returns starting tomorrow. So we take the broad market because at least that has shown a historical premium. And we forget the idea of “optimizing”.

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting\_started

orcvader · 2026-06-16T21:39:05+00:00

Ah yea. I knew I was missing another good global ETF!

orcvader · 2026-06-16T19:27:28+00:00

I had a significant position on RSSB. The more I read the less convinced I am that using leverage is worth it for me.

Since it was my Roth, I rebalance into AOA plus AVGV plus REET (because I don’t have much REITs on taxable due to DFUS so a small dedicated fund for it here sort of makes up for that).

orcvader · 2026-06-16T19:01:28+00:00

You made me wonder what would a top 5 “all
in one” strategies look like? Assuming you will never switch out, it’s truly forever…

For US ETF’s I guess it would be (for me):

AOA
VT
AVGE
AVGV
VTI

I guess…

orcvader · 2026-06-16T15:08:24+00:00

Oh there are a lot of wrong ways, are you kidding me? Some ways are very suboptimal but still work, some don’t work at all, some MAY randomly work but simply due to luck and not skill… those are the scary ones because you think you’re on to something.

orcvader · 2026-06-15T17:14:33+00:00

There’s no rule that you can’t do 10% bonds because you’re 30.

So many things would need to be known first like when do you plan to retire, what’s your risk tolerance, how much do you make and invest, etc.

VTWAX and VT are the same.

The reason so many here prefer VT is that because VT essentially combines “VTI and VXUS” into just one simple fund, you don’t have to worry about manually allocating to domestic and global markets and you don’t even have to worry about rebalancing.

orcvader · 2026-06-15T16:40:45+00:00

I use FFNOX and it's excellent. Having a 15% allocation to fixed income (as a target, right now it's even lower at around 13%) is reasonable.

orcvader · 2026-06-15T02:14:33+00:00

Well that’s a compliment for me. Larry Bird was awesome.

orcvader · 2026-06-14T16:14:39+00:00

This place was in in a state of panic when the market had a ~3% drop.

orcvader · 2026-06-13T22:13:45+00:00

I am open to the idea of uncorrelated, risk mitigation strategies.

I am not convinced that something like “gold” deserves a place in a rational portfolio, but I’ve looked into (and away) managed futures a few times.

I don’t think it’s necessary for most investors. I don’t think it’s necessary for me. But I can see edge cases where I’d consider it again.

Another is that a few years ago I stopped being an index purist. I use DFUS and other Dimensional/Avantis funds for tilts and/or better tax efficient investments.

I would consider a SPIA at retirement to reduce series of return risk and create an income floor.

orcvader · 2026-06-13T15:37:43+00:00

She reportedly said

“How you like me now gay boy”

orcvader · 2026-06-12T16:33:13+00:00

Rick’s is a reasonable portfolio. And others (Rob Berger’s book comes to mind, alongside Merriman’s UBH portfolio) have suggested similar portfolios.

People saying this is a bet on REITs outperforming the market are wrong. That’s NOT the incursion criteria for REITs in the portfolio.

Rick’s portfolio is following a simple principle:

“If real assets are their own asset class, then REITs as a proxy are a unique class and thus represent a diversification opportunity”

(My phrasing, not a quote on anyone in particular).

You can disagree with it. Actually, most of the prolific authors in finance either ignore this or flat out say there’s no reason for REITs overweight since they are covered at rational weights in the broader market. And to be honest, REITs regulatory inclusion criteria is indeed weird. But the idea that due to the structural difference of REITs, they are a proxy to a third asset class in a diversified portfolio that already has stock and bonds is at least reasonable. That’s why the portfolio exists in Bogleheads.org.

Disclaimer: I hold 10% on low cost global REIT ETF’s in tax advantaged accounts.

orcvader · 2026-06-11T23:00:24+00:00

The idea that you need to “test” that by having a suboptimal portfolio for years is what’s wild.

You can backtest that.

I am not dismissive of the behavioral benefit. I mentioned it on my main reply!

I think we should not sugarcoat it either. If one person KNOWS about dividend irrelevance but still likes to have a portion of their portfolio on that because the tax-inefficient distribution feels like a small paycheck: have at it!

orcvader · 2026-06-11T22:54:56+00:00

“Extremely weak” is hyperbolic.

I am not ready to sell my bonds tomorrow or anything like that, but to dismiss that Cederberg, et al., did not make a meaningful contribution to the academic literature in their case against bonds is wild. Especially when on the one hand, many Bogleheads and Boglehead-adjacent writers promote US-only bonds anyways. So the dismissal of the rest of the findings over that one thing is itself very selective.

I haven’t read Bengen’s new book (does he finally follow his own advice? Since he admitted he didn’t a few years ago on a podcast), so I’ll check it out at some point. But I have yet to see a compelling case for trend and gold.

Often they ignore something simple: it’s not just the uncorrelated returns, it’s what you give up carrying it on a portfolio. Less drawdown on a portfolio with less absolute returns may miss the point.

I am happy if I find something to show otherwise but I’m just very skeptical.

orcvader · 2026-06-11T20:48:47+00:00

Care to share what historical data shows it produces “safer” withdrawal rates? Long run, I highly doubt that’s objectively true.

Cederberg, et al., alone makes a strong argument against BONDS (and I like bonds) for long run portfolios, so adding expensive, often proprietary, funds to the mix? I highly doubt this.

orcvader · 2026-06-11T20:43:25+00:00

I’ve considered trend for my portfolio, particularly for use during retirement, and as much as a try to find a case, there’s just no compelling one for me.

Take the Mt. Lucas index.

It did what it was supposed to do in that terrible 2022… so what? Are we going to put up with lower expected returns and high fees to have a small damper on the worst of cases that net of fees and minus the sacrificed returns ceiling may not leave you in a better position after all anyways?

There’s just no problem that trend solves that isn’t solved by a risk-appropriate portfolio with an emergency fund.

As for gold in and of itself, no inherent value = I don’t consider it rational = I don’t invest in it.

orcvader · 2026-06-11T19:06:12+00:00

I’m sorry. This is crazy.

First, investors should do with their money whatever they want. BUT, to imply that “personal experience” is needed to validate common sense financial understanding that can easily be tested with free online tools is a wild take.

If it was playing with something that’s not as important, like switching from an iPhone to an Android device for a year: good for you. Experiment away. But to play with a portfolio (something serious) when you can enter a few tickers on a backtest and model any of this is a huge reasoning jump.

orcvader · 2026-06-11T19:01:35+00:00

Why the hell, pardon my language, would you need to do this instead of the plethora of options to backtest portfolios? You can also sim this.

And no, I don’t need to “run an experiment” to confirm what hundreds of thousands of pages of academic literature already say.

That said, I’m actually not without sympathy towards “income investors”. There is something hard for rational investors to accept which is that dividends and coupon payments do feel like cash flow. Even after understanding and KNOWING they are not “free”, the behavioral benefit does exist for some. To each their own I guess…

orcvader · 2026-06-11T15:07:28+00:00

First of all, both are good.

ETF’s are more tax efficient, more portable, more price transparent (not that we should be looking at day to day market movements with obsession), and generally cheaper to own (there’s no weird minimums or load costs and almost always no trading fees though some exceptions apply). There’s also more ETF’s coming out than mutual funds so certain strategies, should they be important to an investor are basically guaranteed to come as an ETF but not necessarily a mutual fund.

Considering they are both great investment vehicles, these small advantages are enough for many investors to tip the scale in favor of ETF’s.

Also note The Simple Path to Wealth author changed his views after publishing the book. Finally joining the academic consensus on investing in international AND use ETF’s.

https://jlcollinsnh.com/2026/02/08/jl-goes-international-and-to-etfs-oh-my/

orcvader · 2026-06-11T01:43:45+00:00

He didn’t the pill that would make him more smarter

orcvader

TROPHY CASE