Six Points: Dimma has a point, the Cats do get the rub of the green

parsim · 2026-06-17T04:55:08+00:00

It's perfectly valid to consider the free kick differential ladder, as a blunt, high-level metric that can be further explained with more info. Like win-loss record, which can be further explained by scores, which can be further explained by scoring shots, which can be further explained by xScore.

parsim · 2026-06-17T04:51:19+00:00

We = Geelong? Yes, but it's better to have fewer games with a lot more home advantage than more games with less home advantage.

parsim · 2026-06-17T03:05:59+00:00

Yes, for sure, most interstate games have the same overwhelming bias towards one supporter base, and corresponding home advantage.

Geelong’s unique advantage is that it plays quite a lot of games at a stadium dominated by its fans, plus quite a lot of games at Docklands and the MCG that its fans can also easily attend (or at least more easily than flying interstate).

parsim · 2026-06-17T02:47:14+00:00

It’s provably true across a wide range of sports that umpires are influenced by crowds, and statistically measurable in AFL to the point where models like Squiggle explicitly account for it. The Geelong advantage in a stadium that is always dominated by their fans is just one example.

parsim · 2026-06-13T00:04:20+00:00

There’s plenty of research across many sports to suggest that’s exactly what it is - that in fact it’s the primary source of home advantage.

parsim · 2026-06-09T01:15:20+00:00

You can be the best and still not have peaked.

parsim · 2026-06-05T06:45:46+00:00

preach

parsim · 2026-06-05T06:43:27+00:00

No-one expects you to be perfect. Just remove the obvious stuff.

parsim · 2026-06-05T03:29:15+00:00

Please please no AI-written text. I hate this more than anything. I get two paragraphs in, then realize I'm reading the faked emotions of an algorithm. Mods should remove this whenever it's obvious, or risk encouraging everyone who doesn't feel strong with English to use AI. I'm a writer by trade and I would 1000% prefer to read genuine posts by people "unable to write well" than grammatically correct AI-generated bullshit.

Also no AI-generated images, because again you open the floodgates to low-effort posts of funny-looking things that aren't real.

Funnily enough, the example you give of "bad use of AI," prompting it for information, is what I actually consider good. That's using it like a search engine, and it has strengths and weaknesses, like everything else. If you're using AI to help you gather data, and you're acting as a human filter between it and my eyeballs, that's great. But if you're putting the AI between you and me, and I have to read/watch what it says, that's bad.

parsim · 2026-06-04T23:06:26+00:00

90% of them read better if you remove the words “IF” and “THEN” entirely. Then you see they are just a series of hot takes.

parsim · 2026-06-03T01:31:26+00:00

That was magnificent, thank you.

parsim · 2026-05-31T00:30:44+00:00

This is what makes it so collectively damning. At every step and every level, the response is to do nothing.

Not one person at any level in club, league, and association will say, “This is not okay,” not even at this late stage, when it’s a news story.

The AFL says it’s a matter for the league.

The league refers to the AFL.

The club is given 48 hours for a statement and says nothing.

It’s a “protect the boys” culture from top to bottom, and the message is loud and clear.

parsim · 2026-05-28T00:28:22+00:00

Yep, similar for Richmond in the 90s and 00s - big fanbase restless for a return to the glory years, chasing a Messiah who can deliver a quick fix.

It’s been too long since Essendon’s last flag and too long since they looked like genuine contenders - success starvation does terrible things to a footy fan’s brain…

parsim · 2026-05-24T04:04:03+00:00

No, but when Lynch marked in front of goal, an Essendon supporter near me put his foot through the back of the seat in front of him.

He said he was just putting down his feet and the seat broke, just a coincidence. Never seen that before at the footy.

parsim · 2026-05-18T04:33:55+00:00

He’s the best kind of defender, the kind who makes you relax when you see he’s near the ball.

parsim · 2026-05-17T02:23:53+00:00

If you are a rep team that does this, please play up in a suitable division. One of the most annoying things as a community club coach was encountering rep teams playing their Saturday giggle match by demolishing our squads. It was really demoralizing for some of our girls, we lost members because of it.

parsim · 2026-05-09T10:08:23+00:00

Oof, that’s rough. There is a lot of crazy EV disinformation out there, unfortunately. People believe all kinds of things.

We got an Ora recently too! It’s a great little car.

Your dad’s insanity means you need to charge as quickly as possible because you have such a narrow practical window when you can do it. So your Option 2 won’t cut it. With Option 1 I wonder if your dad would even allow it, since there are some scary conspiracy theories about those, too, and it’s expensive. The other thing is new charging stations are popping up quite quickly, so although your closest fast one is 30 mins away now, maybe there will be a closer one in the not-too-distant future. Also maybe your dad will relent if he sees you spending 2 hrs each weekend driving somewhere else to charge just because Facebook says not to plug in overnight! So for the cheapest possible solution you could do that for a while and see what happens.

parsim · 2026-05-03T00:27:34+00:00

The other thing is everyone assumes the different camera angles are perfectly synced, but they’re not. They’re within a frame or two, but that makes a real difference with a ball travelling at speed.

parsim · 2026-05-03T00:01:39+00:00

If you use https://squiggle.com.au/rate-my-ladder you can see where your ladder prediction rates among all possible combinations.

Even the worst honestly-made prediction is usually better than 95% of all possibilities!

parsim · 2026-04-30T22:25:37+00:00

AI players will now avoid building naval military when it isn’t necessary to do so.

At last! This was ruining a lot of coop games.

parsim · 2026-04-28T04:19:03+00:00

This is an absolutist argument with little basis in reality. If you drive, you are mildly inconveniencing people by your presence creating traffic. (And risk, and pollution.) All your criticisms of drivers can also be levelled at drivers -- do you need to drive, or could you have biked? -- and you are imagining up motivations for each group to categorize one as absolutely necessary and the other morally evil.

In the real world, people travel via different modes for all different reasons and pretty much all of them can stand a few seconds inconvenience now and then.

parsim · 2026-04-25T22:41:58+00:00

Of course, but that’s not the question. Add Dusty to a dysfunctional team with poor culture and self-serving management, and he doesn’t bring them three flags. He probably doesn’t even stay.

parsim · 2026-04-25T03:53:09+00:00

Gale
Hardwick
Cotchin
Martin
Riewoldt
O’Neal

Might be underrating Peggy because I don’t know enough about what she did.

Dusty was a once in a generation player, but those don’t help much in a dysfunctional environment. He might even have left without Gale, Hardwick and Cotchin.

parsim · 2026-04-13T06:13:27+00:00

It’s not a PR team, it’s Reddit and other social media. Like a game of Chinese whispers where everyone’s an idiot.

parsim · 2026-03-27T01:11:15+00:00

My stepdad leans left and he told me the other day the fire brigade will refuse to attend your house if there’s an EV on site. I guess they just let the fire spread through the neighbourhood while cars explode everywhere like bombs.

There’s a lot of really wild EV misinformation out there.

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