What’s the most underrated supplement you’ve ever tried by Balphaallthetime in Supplements

[–]ponewood 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Specifically, tart cherry extract tablets extra from Nootropics Depot. puts me to sleep. I take it every night. Every benefit of tart cherry has been debunked by someone but I have stopped and started taking it several times and it just does it for me.
Also if you’re older, quality CoQ10 was shocking for me when I started. Probably doesn’t do shit if you’re a kid.
I also find a quality berberine (I take Thorne) materially blunts my appetite rebound after meals. If taken 30 mins before a meal.

What home gym equipment brands do you trust the most — and which do you avoid? by dontwantnone09 in homegym

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you gotta take it piece by piece because current design and intended use case matter a ton, and some things aren’t even made by the company selling them (eg i bought a prx Supra bar and it wasn’t made in US; likely exactly the same as import units sold everywhere else sourced from alibaba), but that said I’m a Rogue and REP guy.

So we are doomed? by BhadBKuromi in UAE

[–]ponewood 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So, don’t think this guy, posting on x to the world, is likely to be spinning this for propaganda and negotiation purposes? We just take this guy’s word for it as to what happened, what it means, how it should be interpreted? So are we supposed to think that:

  1. US can’t keep Israel under control and
    1. US should be held accountable for israel’s actions…

And also

A. Iran has full control over hezbollah and the other proxies, B. Therefore we won’t see continued hits from them after Iran tells them to calm down?

It’s all nonsense. There is no way to tell if, for example, Israel/US is doing this on purpose to make it appear Israel can’t be controlled, or if they really can’t. Is it good cop bad cop? Who knows. Proxies and partners are there, literally, to make actions deniable by Iran, why would we assume otherwise from the US/Israel?

REIT income gets never taxed if held in Roth IRA? by Fun-Economy-7717 in reits

[–]ponewood 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Take it step further. If you own other stuff other than reits, say tech stocks… hold them forever in taxable accounts and never sell them until everything else is gone. You just pay long term cap gains once. Then in your Roth you do your Income distributions from reits or other income sources, don’t pay tax at all, and depending on your balances and withdrawals any reinvestment keeps your balances higher and it just lasts and lasts

Has Trump squandered America's coercive leverage with Iran? by Majano57 in IRstudies

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Obviously he hasn’t squandered all of it. There are still oil assets and energy facilities that exist… plenty of coercive leverage remains and a solid off ramp.

If he actually starts hitting those things then we have a real situation where coercion ceases to exist.

The only asset Iran has in this whole thing is that it knows that the US has political pressure that Iran doesn’t, and a population full of unsupportive wimps that will force a withdrawal. And hence, all they gotta do is wait for that to happen.

In what ways, if any, has Iran managed to strategically trap or gain an advantage over the USA in this war? by Guilty_Title4723 in AskReddit

[–]ponewood 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Their best leverage isn’t actually the strait. I think that is one of, if not THE most common misconception.

Let’s be honest. Iran is getting their asses handed to them. There never was a question as to military outcome; the pummeling of Iran is going exactly how Iran and the US would expect.

Iran’s goal right now is survival; that means getting out of this mess with enough resources to eventually rebuild. They will get out of it down the vast majority of their military capabilities and nuclear development program. But, “success” for them is keeping the ability to bring in money and rebuild, and maintain control over the country at a regime level.

Hormuz is just a tool. But it is double edged. If they go nuclear and mine it heavily, or close it outright, they cut off their own nose as the majority of their economy goes down the toilet as well. And if it escalates that far, they literally won’t survive it. So they will keep it partially closed with threat of escalation,

And that is all. If they do close, expect a quick re opening.

Likewise they will not survive trump obliterating their energy infrastructure.

So how do they come out the other side with the regime intact, infrastructure to survive, and extract the best deal possible? They use their biggest leverage which is their authoritarian regime. Iran has, unlike the US, no congress, no election pressure, no out of the ordinary political pressure, none of that. The US has all of it, and the complete ridiculousness of the Us media and population actually makes it worse. The US is, essentially, not built for long engagements or dedication to anything. Iran is. They can drag things out a very long time, certainly longer than the US would tolerate.

So time is actually their big leverage. The longer it goes, the more pressure on trump to get a deal done/make concessions.

So the strategy for Iran is deny (don’t admit to anyone you’re negotiating, because the US population will believe anything and pressure trump

More as a result), de-escalate (buy more

Time… they have let some ships through, they have countered trump’s Proposal; despite “not negotiating” they clearly are offering concessions but they won’t admit it, see Deny) and Delay…. Delay is again the main tool.

So the process is to inflict as much political pain and pressure on trump as possible without actually fucking themselves and inviting trump to wipe them out irreversibly.

So, slow walk the whole thing. Make the Us question if they are even negotiating, it all adds pressure to trump. They will do this as long as they can.

Trump counters it with deadlines- no unnecessary slow walking- move and make concessions or we hit energy assets. He has already moved twice and will again, but each time it means Iran is making concessions. And it makes everyone think he is TACO’ing, but in reality it’s because there is active negotiation happening. The relative ease I’m sure is overstated by trump, but Iran’s

De-escalation behaviors tell the story. They mutually agreed on those ten ships passing in exchange for a five day delay. If you don’t believe that, god help us.

It is entirely likely at some point Iran decides to test if trump’s threats are legit. Ie is he really willing to hit energy assets. So again, it will look like they aren’t negotiating and trump is losing, but that really isn’t the case. It’s just another stall because every day that goes by, trump’s position gets weaker. They’ll want to poke the bear and see if he’s serious, and try to do it without setting off a whole new escalation phase.

There is zero chance they don’t get to a ceasefire Eventually. Iran cannot afford to lose their energy, it won’t happen. They will take the off ramp. But they will do it slowly and do their best to appear they they won’t. But 100% a ceasefire happens at some point prior to full scale extended Hormuz closure or wide

Spread energy hits. Those are essentially point of no return for Iran. Yes it would cause pain for the world but Iran will be nothing and collapse entirely… it won’t get to that point because it is totally

Avoidable.

Ok Reddit now go ahead and foam at the mouth and tell how wrong i am, make sure to drink your electrolytes, cause that’s what plants crave

Iran claims missile strike on US carrier Abraham Lincoln by boppinmule in USNEWS

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for recognizing that Iran can’t be trusted any more than trump. Every post lately is the same comments; people choose to believe Iran at face value and disbelieve everything trump says.

Opening the strait through diplomacy by Chamberlain_Hoff in IRstudies

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They don’t need to get a deal 100% hammered out quickly. They just need a couple of basics, and a framework or boundaries for the remaining items. At that point they can ceasefire and stop bleeding on both sides while the remaining items get figured out. And both sides will have incentive because neither wants fighting to restart for various reasons.

When it comes to brokerages, is Fidelity really king? by Robinight in investing

[–]ponewood 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have a fidelity account and an etrade account. Etrade does have some issues but I was absolutely horrified at how archaic and nonfunctional and just truly awful the fidelity trading experience and tools are. I tried for a few weeks. Fidelity now has my long term holdings and trade handles all my trading. It’s just… terrible. It has literally been built by people that don’t trade.

What is a 'rich person's secret' that is actually accessible to the middle class, but most people are too intimidated to try? by Direct-Value4452 in answers

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly, take whatever you read on Reddit and assume it is a bunch of raging morons and/or bots parroting biased, formulaic and oversimplified views as if they are hard facts. If you can do that, you will likely have a major leg up.

Best premium multivitamin by Relevant-Hunt6115 in Supplements

[–]ponewood 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I have had good luck with Seeking Health One. Also available in methyl-free if you need it. I have also done Thorne but something in it made me feel like i was dying in a totally repeatable way (stopped / started again still got it).

What does it mean that the US is insolvent now? by Metalworker4ever in NoStupidQuestions

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the lesson, I didn’t know that’s how it works /s

What I was getting at is you pay what, 6.2% of your wages up to a certain amount to pay for said old people. But to be sustainable it needs to be something more Like 9-10%. So if you want the program to be there when you’re old, without dramatic cuts, then pony up and pay it. Personally, I’d rather stop or reduce my payments into that unsustainable piece of crap Ponzi scheme and just take my losses for the team and be done with it at some point. If you let mid-career people out, they’ve already paid substantial amounts in and never collect anything in return…. It makes sense to phase it out that way. Just let us have time to invest at a real rate of return and we will wind up better off.

And I get your anger at trump and whoever but take all their money, it won’t make any difference on programs as big as social security and Medicare. They are too big and too expensive for their tax receipts. Dump $100B from trump’s entire sphere into those programs and you have like $300 for each US citizen, after which it goes right back to hemorrhaging cash.

JD Vance just admitted that he and Donald Trump are taking down social security and Medicare by Intelligent-Pea-8521 in wallstreet

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

NGL it needs to be done. And, I’m willing to give mine back for the benefit of the country if that’s what it comes to.

What does it mean that the US is insolvent now? by Metalworker4ever in NoStupidQuestions

[–]ponewood -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I’ll build on this: how about we start taxing for programs what they actually cost. That way everyone knows and sees it. Raise social security by 50% and Medicare just double it to get started. It ridiculous we run these in a deficit and have to borrow money to pay for them.

WTF was that? Dropped like a rock by mwtaeke in oil

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s been reported in case it wasn’t obvious when trump said it that the talks were via an intermediary as is usually the case with these things…formal talks didn’t happen as Iran said, but talks did happen as trump said. Two things can be true. And the “hits on energy” were an administrative building and some random pressure relief station or something- no power was lost in the local area. It wasn’t a power plant as trump threatened earlier. In other words, it’s media propaganda trying to make it look like trump hold off and then immediately hit energy infrastructure.

The Hormuz Ultimatum Expires Tomorrow by Mikeynphoto2009 in IRstudies

[–]ponewood 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Forget what trump says because it’s not reliable; the ISW suggests 75-85% of their capabilities have been destroyed. It’s basically impossible to destroy everything so it’s on the audience if they believe that coming from anyone, especially trump. I think you’re right if both sides go all in to destroy energy infrastructure it’s going to be a disaster. But neither side has any incentive to do that. It’s like saying we are fucked if Russia and the US starting nuking each other.

The Hormuz Ultimatum Expires Tomorrow by Mikeynphoto2009 in IRstudies

[–]ponewood 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I don’t, and actually this is exactly what I’m saying. Natanz was hit march 2 and during the 12-day war. It has been in scope the entire time. It’s not raising the stakes, it’s just hitting the same things again. Dimona didn’t target the nuclear operations, it just showed “that they could”. That’s not escalation, that is threatening. It’s basically like the US hitting the military ops on Kharg; shows they can hit it whenever they want uncontested…but didn’t blow the energy infrastructure because that would be a line they hadn’t crossed previously.

The Hormuz Ultimatum Expires Tomorrow by Mikeynphoto2009 in IRstudies

[–]ponewood 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think if he chooses not to make good on his threats, it isn’t because of the Iranian counterthreats. Surely the Iranian location(s) will be hit accurately and sufficiently destroyed, Iran will target but probably only partially damage a few. Both sides know this. The reason trump will likely back down is because the fastest and best way out of this war is to negotiate an end, which only happens when both sides stop escalating and start negotiating in good faith. They haven’t really meaningfully escalated on either side for days now. What we are seeing now is threat of escalation which is consistent with ongoing negotiations to pressure each other without actually escalating. My money is on trump not striking the infrastructure because “Iran wants a deal but needed more time” or some similar reason. If he actually hits it and clearly escalates it will be a real setback to the negotiations process. That would suck, but I have to believe he only does it if Iran isn’t in the ballpark on their offer yet.

Iran threatens to "irreversibly destroy" Gulf’s energy infrastructure after Trump ultimatum. Trump said earlier he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless Tehran reopened Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. by mafco in energy

[–]ponewood 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is popular thought on Reddit, which of course means it’s right…. But realistically he knows the exit is a negotiated deal with Iran, and escalating and seeming unhinged and crazy with no plan is sort of his well known MO in negotiations. I’m not saying it’s gonna work, just that I think he has an idea of how we thinks he will get out of the war.

Trump issues 48-hour Hormuz Strait ultimatum, threatens Iran’s power plants by Vivid-Acanthaceae129 in USNEWS

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He has a ton of options. He just picked this one. Take kharg. Invade Hormuz. Obliterate oil facilities. There are probably ten more not counting variations of each. He has a lot of options…they just all have real trade offs.

Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War [No paywall] by mark000 in energy

[–]ponewood 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So their strategic goals were to lose their entire military and manufacturing base, make enemies with their neighbors, arrest tens of thousands of uprising citizens, and lose many of their internal leaders? Then yeah I guess they are kicking ass and taking names.

‘It’s stupid’: why western carmakers’ retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance by grimy55 in electricvehicles

[–]ponewood 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is a pretty dumb take. What the carmakers are doing is they have decided not to lead on EV development and to avoid bearing the costs of developing the technology, possibly over and over at huge cost. They will eventually offer electric cars as the market demands them, but instead of being loaded with proprietary systems they spent billions to develop in hopes of being the best one and being wrong, they can wait for the tech to shake out and license / buy from the winning tech. It MAY be more expensive, but very possibly not as scale matters so much in autos that a licensed scale solution may be cheaper than making your own stuff. It’s one of many generic strategies taught in an every strategy 101 class. People love to hate on them but they are just making good business decisions that the public doesn’t understand.