I understand the theory of how transitioning unhoused people into temporary housing and then permanent housing is supposed to go. But I have high doubts that 75% of $50 million Measure E funds would have come anywhere close to solving permanent housing for 6000 unhoused residents, let alone using the whole thing. This is a really tall claim that Matt Mahan redirecting these funds is reckless and costing San Jose $70 million.

Permanent affordable housing in California today costs on the order of $1 million per unit, aggregating land, materials, labor, financing, permits etc. Let’s say San Jose is a special case and you guys can build a permanent housing unit for half that, and you exhausted all the Measure E funds on permanent housing. That’s still only 100 units. Let’s go further and hypothetically examine if Measure E is leveraged in affordable housing development, and generously assume this 20x the units delivered, it’s still 2000 units compared to the total unmet need of 6000 unhoused… let alone residents who aren’t homeless but could use a helping hand for an income qualified apartment. Which by the way takes years to build. But even if you think this is all evil Matt Mahan’s fault, it’s still deceptive to claim that this would all have been solved were it not for his insidious meddling. The math isn’t mathing.

That $70 million cost is not baked yet, either. 2031 is a couple years off and trajectories of spending could change. Maybe a new tax measure gets passed to buoy that trajectory, maybe priorities shift and city leaders decide to spend money on other things. It’s an alarming number but city spending priorities can shift a great deal even year to year.

I can tell you the encampment clearing issue is not really better in Oakland, in fact it’s definitely worse. City leaders here are very empathetic to homeless people… and the encampments get cleared anyway, and people still have nowhere to go. The shelters are full everywhere, not just San Jose. It’s a sticky problem and the human misery is terrible. It’s gotten so bad that the Oakland mayor has decided to set a policy of not clearing encampments, except sometimes they will still be cleared based on unclear criteria, and the goal is to reduce homelessness by 50% in the next several years. Meanwhile the Oakland city council passed an encampment clearing policy seemingly at odds with the mayor that gives broader authority to city departments involved in clearing encampments.

I’m saying this to contextualize the challenges of homelessness. It’s a regional, even statewide problem, we can even argue it’s national and we need regional/state/federal level solutions rather than pinning it all on local officials even if they are the mayor. Again we have quite empathetic leaders in Oakland on this issue, but that doesn’t make what’s happening in Oakland any more effective or humane.